YTD (NBA PLAYOFFS): 5-4 ATS (0-1 BIG PLAY!!!)
Small sample size and really liking my chances to win and get above 60% for the playoffs. For the season, I had a down year in NBA which most of you know is not usual for this sport. Had to just abandon the plays vs. losing even a single person money. Hoping the finals can be a nice ending to an otherwise disappointing season in NBA.
I think tonights game will be defined by one word, layoffs. Not PLAYOFFS, but layoffs. The Celtics have not played in over a week and the Mavs for only slightly shorter. I do feel that both teams might come out rusty and the only reason I don't flat out back the UNDER is because they also might not play defense. Which would be music to the ears of the Celtics as they ended the season as the 2nd best scoring team. But the Mavs are nothing like the Pacers nor the Cavaliers.
Even with Porzingis retuning I think he will add some quality minutes but I would be shocked if his conditioning was where it should be. Let's not forget he's missed months and to get back to playing shape will be tough, though his rim side defense could be a difference maker and I imagine at some point he contributes a good amount of scoring. But the Celtics dont' need scoring, they will need efficiency.
The Mavs enter the contest as one of the best teams not only in the playoffs, but also in the regular season. They have done so by playing some really great defense on the road where they actually have some really nice looking splits. I think this team is very balanced and Jason Kidd doesn't get the type of accolades he should as a coach. For me, the time off gave Lively a chance to get back to full health and I think that too will be a factor.
Each time the Mavs got down, and were faced with what seemed like an insurmountable deficit, they seem to have come back and made the games close. Of course, I know, they didn't do that every time it happened but for the most part they do not stop fighting. They are tough, have stars, one of which has a chip on his shoulder and has already won a championship. I've put some money on the Mavs winning the title just because the odds are good and I think Doncic is the best player on the floor. But I didn't go heavy b/c I have said all year I thought the Celtics were the best team in the NBA. Well, they WERE, but I don't think they are currently.
DALLAS (+3.5) FH
DALLAS (+7)...BIG PLAY!!!
I know I'm in the minority, maybe the only one siding with the Mavs but at least you have my reasoning. Do your own research, trust your gut and, as always, tail or fade good luck to all...
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