YTD (NBA): 83-63-3 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 16-12 ATS)
Some great matchups and trends tonight that should see a handful of games get over inflated totals. The BIG PLAYS have been dropping like flies of late and since I take 2 unit losses on them my record has started to be adversely affected. But tonight is a new night and it's been an awesome day so far for me, really liking these plays and trends:
OVER 234 (DET/ATL)...BIG PLAY!!!: The total has gone OVER in 23 of Atlanta’s last 32 games against Detroit AND even more impressive the total has gone OVER in 10 of the last 11 H2H's when playing IN Atlanta.
OVER 228 (CLE/HOU): The Cavs have been unstoppable and while the Rockets have played well, I'm not sure they can take them down even with a really strong record playing against them at home. Cleveland is just another animal this year and they score like crazy on the road where their pace of play is amongst the highest in the NBA. That will suit the Rockets just fine as they are very good at home and tend to light up the scoreboard on their home court.
OVER 240 (CHA/MEM): Had this not been so inflated this would be a lock for a big play. But given the 240 means scoring at least 60 per quarter that makes it a bit dicey even if the trends show that the OVER has cashed in 9 of the past 11 played between these two in Memphis and 11 of the past 14 in all H2H's between these two. With Ball and Morant running the floor, I think this gets over the number.
OVER 233 (UTAH/OKC)...BIG PLAY!!!: I truly believe OKC will slaughter the Jazz but with Markannen back on the floor joining a healthy starting 5, and with the Jazz going over in 12 of the last 16 road affairs, I am backing this. Add to that 5 of the last 7 played between these two in OKC have gone over the total, and this becomes a big play.
UNDER 219 (BOS/LAC): No stormin' Norman, no way the points find their way to the Clippers. And as good as the Celtics have been offensively, they have been a bit down of late. The Clippers have gone under in 11 of their past 15 and play very tight defense at INTUIT. The Celtics are 5-15 for the UNDER on the road this season. With all of that said, Kawhi is back and a defensive stalwart and I think this is definitely one game that lines up well for an UNDER.
Sorry about all the totals but it's where I see the advantage tonight. Almost took the Clippers tonight as they are so good at home and really strong vs. the Celtics at home but it's just tough when pretty much their leading scorer is missing. Do your own research and, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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