My numbers are showing that UNDER is the play for the Denver/Golden State game, but I can't bring myself to do it. The number that I'm showing for that game is just over 192 - the total out on the game is 211.5. This may be my first extreme outlier and chances are I'm going to lay off. I don't trust either of these teams to play any defense and the only time I've hit an under bet (I think) on Denver is when they played Houston, who slowed the game down big time with a lead late.
Speaking of, I've got the Houston vs. Phoenix UNDER sitting right on the limit of differential that I like to play with this system. I will have to see what the line does throughout the day; if it goes down from 199.5, then it's a no play but if it goes up, I will have to consider a play on the under. My line is less than two points off of the line put out for the Sacramento vs. OKC game, so that will be a no play unless there is drastic movement in the line before tonight.
Can anybody give me any insight on this Denver/Golden State game? Will this one shoot over like it seems a majority of both these teams' games do? Or is there a reason to possibly play the under?
My numbers are showing that UNDER is the play for the Denver/Golden State game, but I can't bring myself to do it. The number that I'm showing for that game is just over 192 - the total out on the game is 211.5. This may be my first extreme outlier and chances are I'm going to lay off. I don't trust either of these teams to play any defense and the only time I've hit an under bet (I think) on Denver is when they played Houston, who slowed the game down big time with a lead late.
Speaking of, I've got the Houston vs. Phoenix UNDER sitting right on the limit of differential that I like to play with this system. I will have to see what the line does throughout the day; if it goes down from 199.5, then it's a no play but if it goes up, I will have to consider a play on the under. My line is less than two points off of the line put out for the Sacramento vs. OKC game, so that will be a no play unless there is drastic movement in the line before tonight.
Can anybody give me any insight on this Denver/Golden State game? Will this one shoot over like it seems a majority of both these teams' games do? Or is there a reason to possibly play the under?
This will be the only game of the night. That Denver game is nearly 20 points off of my line, but I'm not touching it, while the other two are close enough to my line that they're considered no-plays.
GL to all tonight.
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This will be the only game of the night. That Denver game is nearly 20 points off of my line, but I'm not touching it, while the other two are close enough to my line that they're considered no-plays.
I look forward to your threads every day, so I hope you're not done posting yet. I think it's genius and you're in the middle of a hot streak; keep it going, brother.
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AK415 -
I look forward to your threads every day, so I hope you're not done posting yet. I think it's genius and you're in the middle of a hot streak; keep it going, brother.
I've been telling myself all day I wasn't going to play the GS/Denver total, but after participating in some discussion here on the board, I've decided to roll with it. My system has this total at 192.5, which is by far the largest differential that I've seen from my total to the posted total. That can mean one of two things: either my system has decided to take that game off or that this line of 211.5 is terribly off. I guess we'll see tonight which one it is, but I'm hoping it's the second one.
GL to all.
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UPDATED CARD:
LA Lakers vs. Boston OVER 176.5
Golden State vs. Denver UNDER 211.5
I've been telling myself all day I wasn't going to play the GS/Denver total, but after participating in some discussion here on the board, I've decided to roll with it. My system has this total at 192.5, which is by far the largest differential that I've seen from my total to the posted total. That can mean one of two things: either my system has decided to take that game off or that this line of 211.5 is terribly off. I guess we'll see tonight which one it is, but I'm hoping it's the second one.
Still don't have anything to say about that Laker game, what a disaster. But it was also nice of GS & Denver to keep me sweating til the end, too. It doesn't seem like any of these NBA teams can hold big leads at the end of games; I'm not sure why that is but I suppose over the course of the season, it will help just as often as it will hurt my plays.
16-10 (61.5%, +5.0)
Talk to you all tomorrow.
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LA Lakers vs. Boston OVER 176.5
Golden State vs. Denver UNDER 211.5
Still don't have anything to say about that Laker game, what a disaster. But it was also nice of GS & Denver to keep me sweating til the end, too. It doesn't seem like any of these NBA teams can hold big leads at the end of games; I'm not sure why that is but I suppose over the course of the season, it will help just as often as it will hurt my plays.
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