I need to give credit to expertcapper/ kenyonlv for the idea to try this, as
they have similar ones to it, but with some different rules and variables being
used in the formulas.
While there is still much tweaking and testing to do on it, this is the meat
and potatoes of it.
I want to preface this by stating that I recognize the NBA as being the
streakiest of any athletic domain in regards to how teams play.
I also believe that most teams seem to go through a metamorphosis throughout
the year and that it is important to recognize what "stage" of their
game each team is in.
Now taking these personal beliefs (variables) into account, I have weighted my
formula heavily towards the average point totals (offensive and defensive) in
the most recent of games for each team.
Here is what I did:
I created a formula to assign a "point value" to each team in
the NBA. This number represents the total number of points that team's
offense and defense are currently responsible for bringing to the table in each
upcoming game.
This is what the formula entails as far as numbers being averaged:
OSA- offensive points season average
OLT- offensive points average in the last 10 games
OLF- offensive points average in the last 5 games
OV- the average of the above numbers after being weighted
accordingly
DSA- defensive points season average
DLT- defensive points allowed in the last 10 games
DLF- defensive points allowed in the last 5 games
DV- the average of the above numbers after being weighted
accordingly
TPV- Team Point Value (final assigned value gotten from
formula)
Here is the weighted formula I use to get the team value:
(OSA+4OLT+7OLF) / 12= OV
(DSA+ 4DLT + 7DLF) / 12 = DV
(OV +DV) / 2 = TPV
As you can see, I’ve given the last 10 games a weight of 4
and the last five a weight of 7.For
some reason or other, they are sponon for the most part with those of Vegas.
Formula
Rules:
Over/
Unders
1.Add each teams total point value from Column
"P" to determine the suggested over/ under line.
2.Any actual line that falls within 3.5 pints
of the suggested line is a "no play".
3.Any actual line that ranges from 4-7.5 points
from the suggested line should be looked at for taking
the side of the difference.For example,
if a suggested line is 206 and the actual line is 201,
the over
should be investigated
4. If the suggested line is8 or more points off from the actual line,
the opposite side should be investigated moreso.
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I need to give credit to expertcapper/ kenyonlv for the idea to try this, as
they have similar ones to it, but with some different rules and variables being
used in the formulas.
While there is still much tweaking and testing to do on it, this is the meat
and potatoes of it.
I want to preface this by stating that I recognize the NBA as being the
streakiest of any athletic domain in regards to how teams play.
I also believe that most teams seem to go through a metamorphosis throughout
the year and that it is important to recognize what "stage" of their
game each team is in.
Now taking these personal beliefs (variables) into account, I have weighted my
formula heavily towards the average point totals (offensive and defensive) in
the most recent of games for each team.
Here is what I did:
I created a formula to assign a "point value" to each team in
the NBA. This number represents the total number of points that team's
offense and defense are currently responsible for bringing to the table in each
upcoming game.
This is what the formula entails as far as numbers being averaged:
OSA- offensive points season average
OLT- offensive points average in the last 10 games
OLF- offensive points average in the last 5 games
OV- the average of the above numbers after being weighted
accordingly
DSA- defensive points season average
DLT- defensive points allowed in the last 10 games
DLF- defensive points allowed in the last 5 games
DV- the average of the above numbers after being weighted
accordingly
TPV- Team Point Value (final assigned value gotten from
formula)
Here is the weighted formula I use to get the team value:
(OSA+4OLT+7OLF) / 12= OV
(DSA+ 4DLT + 7DLF) / 12 = DV
(OV +DV) / 2 = TPV
As you can see, I’ve given the last 10 games a weight of 4
and the last five a weight of 7.For
some reason or other, they are sponon for the most part with those of Vegas.
Formula
Rules:
Over/
Unders
1.Add each teams total point value from Column
"P" to determine the suggested over/ under line.
2.Any actual line that falls within 3.5 pints
of the suggested line is a "no play".
3.Any actual line that ranges from 4-7.5 points
from the suggested line should be looked at for taking
the side of the difference.For example,
if a suggested line is 206 and the actual line is 201,
the over
should be investigated
4. If the suggested line is8 or more points off from the actual line,
the opposite side should be investigated moreso.
While I was
initially looking at it for over/ unders it seems that it can be used in
predicting the spread of the game itself using the variables the following
way. I will use today's Pacers (P)/ Spurs(S) game to show its
application. Again...pretty eerie. I nailed a few close and a few
on the money yesterday and today.
Remember:
Always add three to the home team and take 3 away form the visitors at the end.
1.
(SDV [97] + POV [113]) / 2 = Spurs TEAM VALUE [105] +3 (HOME ADVANTAGE)= 108
2.
(PDV [113] + SOV [99]) / 2 = Pacers TEAM VALUE [106] -3 (HOME ADVANTAGE)= 103
Spurs
108
Pacers
103
Suggested
line= 5
Actual
line =7.5
Early
lean: Pacers
I'll post tables in next post due to character limitations.
0
Game spread predictor:
While I was
initially looking at it for over/ unders it seems that it can be used in
predicting the spread of the game itself using the variables the following
way. I will use today's Pacers (P)/ Spurs(S) game to show its
application. Again...pretty eerie. I nailed a few close and a few
on the money yesterday and today.
Remember:
Always add three to the home team and take 3 away form the visitors at the end.
1.
(SDV [97] + POV [113]) / 2 = Spurs TEAM VALUE [105] +3 (HOME ADVANTAGE)= 108
2.
(PDV [113] + SOV [99]) / 2 = Pacers TEAM VALUE [106] -3 (HOME ADVANTAGE)= 103
Spurs
108
Pacers
103
Suggested
line= 5
Actual
line =7.5
Early
lean: Pacers
I'll post tables in next post due to character limitations.
If you want the excel formula set ups let me know. I'll get around to it sooner than later.
I will post 2 threads a day. One will be MY picks and the other will be all of the system picks and line comparisons, so we can critique it and tweak it publicly.
0
All of the info you need for the table is here at this site:
If you want the excel formula set ups let me know. I'll get around to it sooner than later.
I will post 2 threads a day. One will be MY picks and the other will be all of the system picks and line comparisons, so we can critique it and tweak it publicly.
I'll be interested to see how you do or what backtesting produces. Kinda curious as to why you didn't start this thread in Sys & Strat, it would be easier for me to follow there. BOL
0
I'll be interested to see how you do or what backtesting produces. Kinda curious as to why you didn't start this thread in Sys & Strat, it would be easier for me to follow there. BOL
I am interested in this formula.. I was trying to figure out the numbers on my own using the list of games for 1/21. Seems time consuming and my head is full of numbers...ha ha.
I wish there was an easier way to get to the figures? The defensive numbers seem to be my hang up.
Any ideas? I would love to try to assist you with getting to the totals if you need any.
0
I am interested in this formula.. I was trying to figure out the numbers on my own using the list of games for 1/21. Seems time consuming and my head is full of numbers...ha ha.
I wish there was an easier way to get to the figures? The defensive numbers seem to be my hang up.
Any ideas? I would love to try to assist you with getting to the totals if you need any.
While I was initially looking at it for over/ unders it seems that it can be used in predicting the spread of the game itself using the variables the following way. I will use today's Pacers (P)/ Spurs(S) game to show its application. Again...pretty eerie. I nailed a few close and a few on the money yesterday and today.
Remember: Always add three to the home team and take 3 away form the visitors at the end.
1. (SDV [97] + POV [113]) / 2 = Spurs TEAM VALUE [105] +3 (HOME ADVANTAGE)= 108
2. (PDV [113] + SOV [99]) / 2 = Pacers TEAM VALUE [106] -3 (HOME ADVANTAGE)= 103
Spurs 108
Pacers 103
Suggested line= 5
Actual line =7.5
Early lean: Pacers
I'll post tables in next post due to character limitations.
In your example, you use the SDV and POV to define the home team value and the ODV and SOV to define the visitors‘.Could you please explain why you choose these variables to redefine the team value.Cause there are two alternatives. One is that you can use TPV as defined above.The other is that the SOV and PDV are used to define the home team value.Which way is better?
Here is another question.how many tests have you run to verify your formula? what are the odds to win a bet?
0
Quote Originally Posted by yellowsnow51:
Game spread predictor:
While I was initially looking at it for over/ unders it seems that it can be used in predicting the spread of the game itself using the variables the following way. I will use today's Pacers (P)/ Spurs(S) game to show its application. Again...pretty eerie. I nailed a few close and a few on the money yesterday and today.
Remember: Always add three to the home team and take 3 away form the visitors at the end.
1. (SDV [97] + POV [113]) / 2 = Spurs TEAM VALUE [105] +3 (HOME ADVANTAGE)= 108
2. (PDV [113] + SOV [99]) / 2 = Pacers TEAM VALUE [106] -3 (HOME ADVANTAGE)= 103
Spurs 108
Pacers 103
Suggested line= 5
Actual line =7.5
Early lean: Pacers
I'll post tables in next post due to character limitations.
In your example, you use the SDV and POV to define the home team value and the ODV and SOV to define the visitors‘.Could you please explain why you choose these variables to redefine the team value.Cause there are two alternatives. One is that you can use TPV as defined above.The other is that the SOV and PDV are used to define the home team value.Which way is better?
Here is another question.how many tests have you run to verify your formula? what are the odds to win a bet?
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.... The original poster posted this 8 years ago!?!?! 
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