Lakers vs. Nuggets NBA Betting Trends
Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days’ rest.
Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning percentage over .600.
The over is 9-2 in Los Angeles’ last 11 road games.
Lakers vs. Nuggets NBA Prediction
The Lakers opened the postseason by winning their play-in game at home. In the next two rounds, they were able to steal Game 1 on the road against Memphis and Game 1 in San Francisco against Golden State. LeBron James and company understand that they need to win at least one of the first two road games in order to win the series as the lower-seeded club. They’ve been able to pull that off twice already.
For Denver, this will be the toughest team they’ve played all postseason. Minnesota and Phoenix did not have big men the caliber of L.A.’s Anthony Davis, and Davis could make things very difficult for Denver’s Nikola Jokic. I think these teams are about even depth and talent-wise, which is why I like the Lakers to cover the number in Game 1 on the road in Denver on Tuesday night. A.Rome
NBA BETTING PREDICTION: LOS ANGELES LAKERS +6
And that’s a good segway to a related concern, which is the one-dimensional nature of Denver’s offensive attack. As previously mentioned, Jokic is a world-class talent on offense, so it’s no surprise the Nuggets’ entire offensive scheme revolves around him; however, that also requires Jokic to be on the floor as much as humanly possible, exerting a very high level of energy at the offensive end. So, long story short, Denver’s defensive struggles are likely here to stay moving forward.
Another reason for pause regarding this Nuggets’ team is their inability to close out opponents in matchups away from their home arena. The Nuggets posted records of 34-7 at home and 19-22 on the road during the regular season, and since then, they’re just 2-3 in their five road playoff games. Good teams win at home. Great teams win on the road; and for the time being, Denver still qualifies as a good team, not a great one.
All things considered, the Lakers are a tough matchup for Denver. Very few teams have the proper defensive tools to give this Nuggets’’ team headaches, but L. A. happens to be one of them. Jokic will go head-to-head with Anthony Davis for most of this series, an incredibly versatile force at the defensive end, and the Lakers have several other options capable of helping and switching onto the Nuggets’ two-time MVP in a pinch as well.
The Nuggets rarely win games with their play at the defensive end of the floor, so at times when their offense isn’t firing on all cylinders, they become very vulnerable. The Lakers’ defense in the frontcourt should move the needle in a big way throughout this series. Take the points with L. A. in Game 1. by M.Crosson
Score Prediction: Lakers 110, Nuggets 107
Best Bet: Lakers +5.5 (-110)
M. Crosson, who sucks, wants you to believe that 2-3 is a bad road record in the playoffs. He wants you to believe that the Nuggets aren't all that even though they won both of their playoff series in less than 7 games. He didn't mention that the Lakers' road record in these playoffs is worse than Denver's, which matters more because only one team in this Lakers-Nuggets series has to win at least one game on the road.
And each one of them will get completely roasted as will Anthony Davis. Seriously, M. Crosson sucks.
What A. Rome, who also sucks, did not explain to you is that the Grizzlies were a mess of a basketball team entering these playoffs, as we all saw when they exited the playoffs with a disgraceful 40-point defeat. He also didn't explain that the Lakers capitalized on a significant rest advantage to win Game 1 against the Warriors, an advantage the Lakers won't have tonight. It's the Nuggets who have the rest advantage, and it's the Nuggets who went 15-6 ATS when they had the rest advantage over their opponents. That was tops in the NBA this season.
I have Denver winning every game played in Denver. I've been saying that since the playoffs began. On Sunday morning I bet on the Nuggets -2.5 -110 and -165 on the moneyline in the 1st half for Game 1. I also parlayed the Sixers +2.5 -110 to the Nuggets -145 on the moneyline in a 1st quarter parlay. I chose not to bet on the Nuggets -5 out of respect for the Lakers' record since the All-Star break when they play with more than one day of rest.
The Lakers fared much better in the 2nd halves of their Game 1 wins in Memphis and San Francisco. Given that this will be the only game of the series in which the Lakers will be playing with more than one day of rest, I expect them to make a furious charge in the 4th quarter. If they do, they can keep this within 6 points.
LeBron James has traditionally used games early in a series to feel things out, but I think this season is different. He’s older now, and at 38 years old, he doesn’t have the luxury of waiting until Game 6 to start putting on the pressure. He and his teammates need to get right down to business these days or father time will get the best of him.
Meanwhile, Denver has looked to push pace at home in its own right. The Nuggets have the most efficient transition offense left in the league, and they try and set the tone early in home games.
If you disagree with this play, bet the Lakers moneyline. The Lakers will struggle to win offensive, high-scoring affairs, and the Nuggets, despite a better-than-expected defensive performance thus far, will struggle in a slugfest.
Pace is the biggest reason the over is my best bet in this game. by M.Moore
Don’t overthink it. The Nuggets have been dominant at home all season long while the Lakers have struggled on the road. Also, I think there will be a let-down for a road team after a long, grueling series. I personally think Murray will play and I’ll be backing the Nuggets against the spread up to -6 by A.Wang
you can afford to be asleep against this Nuggets offense.
Additionally, this Lakers defense is highly dependent on Anthony Davis being a rim-protector but it is reasonable to wonder whether his rim-protection will be mitigated given his Jokic assignment. Davis just spent two series essentially roaming in help defense as he was tasked with guarding a combination of Xavier Tillman, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney. These assignments awarded Davis tons of freedom to rotate and contest shots as none of these guys qualify as legitimate offensive threats.
Going from those three names to Nikola Jokic is obviously a massive leap in terms of offensive ability and I expect Davis to have less of an impact defensively in this series. Jokic also has an approximately 40-pound weight advantage on Davis as well so this isn’t the best individual matchup for Davis either.
On the flip side of the ball, the Lakers have been a pretty unimpressive half-court offense throughout the playoffs as they rank 14th in half-court offensive rating (93.4) thus far. They’ve survived by forcing a lot of turnovers and getting out in transition as they rank 6th in turnover rate forced (14.3%) and 3rd in transition rate (17.2%).
We should expect both of those numbers to negatively regress as the Nuggets have done a great job of taking care of the ball this postseason (second in TOV %) and limiting transition opportunities (fourth in transition rate allowed). Lakers have benefitted from playing two of the fastest, most turnover prone teams in the NBA in their first two series but now they must take on a legitimate half-court offensive juggernaut that played at the league’s 21st fastest pace this season. BY C.Baker
I expect the Lakers to look like the bad team they were all season and the Nuggets to cover this number. Play this up to -6.5.
Mr. B - do you have a feel for the MIA/BOS series?
GL today! 
@RLeith35
Thank you for sharing, as always! May I ask where do you find these predictions? Would love to read them for every game.
called it to a tee 
[The Lakers fared much better in the 2nd halves of their Game 1 wins in Memphis and San Francisco. Given that this will be the only game of the series in which the Lakers will be playing with more than one day of rest, I expect them to make a furious charge in the 4th quarter. If they do, they can keep this within 6 points.[/Quote]
Jeeze man,,,, Clairvoyante much? Nice job, take a bow
Established in 1995,
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