The moneyline set for this matchup implies Dallas has a 60.5% chance of walking away with the win. This season, Dallas has come away with a win 31 times in 41 chances when named as a favorite of at least -153 or better on the moneyline. When it has played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +130 or longer, Minnesota has a record of 4-8 (33.3%). The Timberwolves are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on the road. Dunkel's Pick: Minnesota (+1.5).
A clean sweep is on the table as the Dallas Mavericks look to book their ticket to the Finals on Tuesday night by closing out the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals at the American Airlines Center.
Let's take a closer look at all of the possibilities for this matchup.
The head injury to Dereck Lively II which he suffered in the second quarter of Game 3 is cause for concern, since his length and size are invaluable versus Minnesota's frontcourt, but it appears that he avoided a concussion which bodes well for his chances of returning to action sooner rather than later.
The Timberwolves actually outscored the Mavericks 74-73 the rest of the way after Lively II exited, but not by enough to think any momentum has shifted in their favor moving forward. Daniel Gafford performed admirably in his stead, and head coach Jason Kidd isn't opposed to going smaller since Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert consistently gets beaten off the dribble and even on lobs around the rim.
It's been a minute since Dallas last held a 3-0 series lead heading into a Game 4, but it covered the spread and won SU the last two occurrences in 2006 and 2011, respectively. The Mavericks are also riding a five-game winning streak SU dating back to the second round against the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder with just one failed cover during that span, and the last thing they'll want to do is inspire a Timberwolves squad which just overcame a 3-2 deficit to eliminate the reigning champions by sending the series back to Target Center for a Game 5.
Trends are trends for a reason and should be followed accordingly, so take notice of the fact that the OVER has been nailed in each game this series by at the very least six points.
Four of Dallas' last six home games this postseason have reached the OVER, as well. The 209.5 prop total is the highest of the series, but the end results of the first three matchups would still have easily surpassed that mark.
To put the nail in the coffin, Conference Finals hosts' who won Game 3 are on a 7-3 SU & ATS run in Game 4. I've been on the Mavericks as an NBA Championship contender for a while now, and love Jason Kidd's squad to close out the series in Game 4.
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