NBA wagering

A little short but sweet introduction before the bets follow. As far as wagering in relation to bankroll, I strongly believe that variation of bet sizes is a must as there are indeed games that will show face to be bet larger than normal. But lets not get out of hand. *, ** & *** bets are all that will be made here. Variation of bets sizes is important but too big of variation of bet sizes can be catastrophic. As simple as that in my opinion. 

I look for a lot of dogs to bet on in NBA and have been doing so with this mentality for years. An occasional favorite here and there but a majority of my bets will be on dogs. GL if you bet any of these with me.

Tues wagers/notes:

**Pacers +1(-110), Clippers about to play in their 4th game in 5th night on (of course a 2nd leg of b2b). This hasn’t happened all season long for the Clippers. This 4 game in 5 night scenario happened 3 time for the Clippers last season going 2-1su & 1-2ats in those 4th games. 

11/3/14 Uta w107-101 L-9.5

11/2/14 Sac L92-98 L-9.5

10/31/14 @LaL w118-111 L-11.5

10/30/14 OKC w93-90 L-12.5

12/23/14 @ATL L104-107 L1.5

12/22/14 @SA L118-125 L+1

12/20/14 MiL w106-102 L-10

12/19/14 @Den L106-109 L-3

2/9/15 @Dal w115-98 w+8

2/8/15 @OKC L108-131 L+7.5

2/6/15 @Tor L107-123 L-1

2/5/15 @Cle L94-105 L+4.5 

You will notice the su loss last season came on the east coast, far away from home. And 1 of those wins came at home as -9.5pt favs. Pacers come home from a 4 game road trip on a days rest before this game. Over the longterm the situation is no easy task, especially on the road. 

***Kings +5(-105), Kings are 4-0su w/o Rudy Gay this season. There is plenty of talent on this team, and the Kings may just well be better off w/o Gay in the lineup. Gay has gotten slower with age & maybe that’s holding the Kings back a bit. 

**Lakers +7.5(-110), Mavs about to play 3rd game in 4th night (2nd leg of b2b) and laying a large chunk on the road. Last time this situation happened on the road for the Mavs they lost @OKC 89-108 as +12.5pt underdogs. To be laying heavy chalk in this spot seems very inflated just based on the Lakers record alone. Feel like I’m getting an extra 3-4pts I shouldn’t be getting.

1/27 NBA

1 wager tonight

***Nuggets +8.5(-108), The Celtics have played only 12 games this year as favs of -5 or more going 7-5ats. That’s 26% of their games being played in this spread range. The Nuggets have played 23 games as +5 or more going 13-10ats. That’s 51% of their games. I’m getting +8.5 with the Nuggets not in a b2b situation, whom have played this situation all season long and done it with success. 

Hawks -3 (Just a lean), Will not force wagers laying points as stated above. But I really feel like betting the Hawks here at home with a little rest catching the Clippers on tail end of a long road trip holds some value. Just hate laying points in this league. Laying points constantly in this league is a bankroll burner and I won’t allow it..

1/28

NBA

***Nuggets +7.5(-110)

The angle on the Nuggets bet last night was taking the points vs a team who has played only a small % of their games as -5pt favs or more (Celtics only fav in this range 26% of their games). Well with the Wizards this angle gets even stronger (Hence, catching slightly less points than last night). Only 4 times have the Wizards been favored by 5pts or more this season (An unpretentious 9% of their games thus far). The Wizards went 2-2su & 2-2ats in these games losing outright to the Lakers (of all teams) and the Knicks. Meanwhile the Nuggets put yet another notch in the cover column at +5 or better last night, moving to 14-10ats. Albeit a backdoor cover, the cashed ticket knows no emotion. It should come s no shock that the Wizards have lost 58% of their games at home this season after reading the above. Going to ride the Nuggets again here catching a modest handful of points yet again. Hopefully this time around a backdoor cover is not needed. 

**Bulls -8.5(-110)

The Lakers are so bad that they have only been favored in 3 of their games all season long. And even catching as many points as they have caught all season, if you’ve been betting against them all season you be a up +5* if each bet was 1*. Two nights ago I was able to cash a ticket on the Lakers catching points at home vs and aging Mavs squad who shouldn’t have been laying such road chalk. But tonight at home vs a much better & younger team with only a 1pt difference in spread… I don’t like the Lakers here at all. Jimmy Butler is in his prime and the Lakers don’t have anyone who can check him. Butler has scored 56pts in his past 2 games vs the Lakers. Prior to the Lakers cashed ticket 2 nights ago, they were 1-5ats in their previous 6 with their lone cash a 13pt loss to the Spurs catching 16pts. Bulls are looking for a rebound game here as they’re are 2-4su & 2-4ats in their last 6. However all 6 of those games were played vs teams with winning records. The 2 wins during that stretch were both road wins, 13pt win @Cavs & 10pt win @Pistons. A recent tough loss at home to the Heat and 3 full days of rest to channel redemption into one of the leagues worst teams tonight. That’s the exact way I see this game. 

As stated above in other posts, I frown upon laying chalk longterm in this league. However I understand that spots are presented with value in certain scenario’s. But I can promise you won’t see me taking favs like this often.

1/29

NBA

***Mavericks/Nets u199(-110)

Brooklyn was averaging 97.2ppg prior to Jack’s season ending injury to his ACL. Since they’re averaging just 91.6ppg. A steep decline in points per game (-5.6ppg). The Nets were also winners straight up of 31% of their games played this season with Jack in the lineup yet that number had also taken a significant hit since his departure as the Nets have only won 2 games since his injury (Just 15% winners). Losing Jack has cut their win% in half due to a decline in points. 4 times during their last 13 games w/o Jack they have failed to score 80pts in a game and 7 times they failed to score 90pts in a game. 

More Jack notes:

Nets have played 3 games on the road since Jack’s injury scoring an average of 22.9ppQ & 91.6ppg. Their previous 5 road games w/ Jack seen them average 101.2ppg. The backcourt offense of the Nets is 

As favs the Mavs are 13-6-1 to the under (68%) but as favs of -5 or more the Mavs are 7-2-1 to the under this season (78%). Very interesting to me especially understanding that the Nets have only been favored in 2 games all season long. In simple terms putting 96% of the Nets games this year being played as the underdog. However as dogs of +7 or more the Nets have went 16-6 to the under (73%).