NBA WIN TOTALS BIGD 2018

Hey guys! Wrapped up my NBA preseason research today and locked in 8 futures on win totals. All lines from westgate at -110

Raptors OVER 55: Kawhi is an upgrade from derozan. The Raptors will have an incredibly elite defense, a similar offense with even more outside shooting, and probably the best depth in the league. Long travel for their opponents and a good home court. I see them getting similar to last year's 59 with a motivated Kawhi and a team that should feel they can compete for a championship and push for home court.

Sixers UNDER 54.5: The sixers have downgraded in the offseason losing some depth. The starting defense will stay elite but the offense stilll lacks playmakers. They don't have the depth to rest starters big minutes and win games, so back to backs will be rough. Fultz doesn't look to be any better, and is a weird fit with Simmons as with both on the floor they have no shooting. If embiid or Simmons get injured, this is a team that would be lucky to make the playoffs. Scary team when healthy and rested, but too flawed to make it through setbacks and not enough depth to put up a high win total.

Pacers UNDER 48.5: Oladipo willed an otherwise flawed team last year, and it is hard for me to put them in the top 5 eastern teams this year. I think the celtics with pieces back, an improved toronto, a more mature philly, a bolstered wizards team, etc take games away from an indy team that will regress back towards low 40s and a 7-8 playoff seed. 

Wizards OVER 45 2 units: Washington is the forgotten team getting no respect in the Eastern Conference. Lots of hate is thrown towards Dwight Howard, but he's actually been a very good player the past few years and doesn't need to play well at all to be an upgrade. Their other offseason additions added a lot of depth they were lacking, and I expect them to be in the low to mid 50s in wins and compete for a 3-4 seed in the east. My favorite pick of the conference.

Knicks UNDER 29: The Knicks are a team with no hope of competing, and I'd be surprised if we see Porzingod anytime soon and would not be surprised if he sits the whole year. The promise of a healthy porzingis and a top 5 pick to help lure a Durant or a Kyrie to the team is important, and I expect the Knicks to be bottoms of the league and win somewhere in the low 20s.

Bulls over 30: If you compare them to similarly rated teams, I think it is ludacris. Lavine has been looking extremely good in preseason now that he's healthy and should be an all star caliber player. Lauri will continue to improve his nba game, and Jabari Parker could be a valuable pick up if he plays up to his potential. They really weren't that bad last year before tanking, and the new nba lottery system and their free agent pick ups suggest they'll push for playoffs this year. I see this team winning high 30s or low 40s and contending for a playoff spot in the east.

The east overall is very interesting this year. With Lebron gone, there is an exciting race to see who will lead the conference. The talent is very top heavy and I could see 5 teams all winning 50 games while the bottom mostly suffers.  Gonna be another great nba year, and good luck to everyone!

WEST

OKC over 48.5 2 Units: I think OKC gets much better this year. Not only was carmelo a bad player for them, but they made one of the most underrated moves of the offseason in acquiring Schroder as well. This number is just too low for a team that was in the ballpark last year and should be improved. I see 50-55 wins for the thunder.

Clippers under 37.5: This is high for a team lacking a great player in the west. They were competitive last year, but I just don't see it happening again. I just don't see the offense on this team, especially if gallinari gets hurt like every other year. I see them being low in the conference and acquiring a top pick to go with the cap room for a star in the next offseason. They know this roster can't compete.

How'd you do in prior years?

I think you're off on OKC as a Westbrook team is always in danger of losing extra games due to selfishness..and the West is better in almost every case..also don't trust the coaching or Wall and the leaders on the Wizards to steal important games..

Yesterday we say stupid coaching cost good teams-Washington, Miami, the Brewers...the Miami loss hurt my under Virginia season win total, probably killed it...this is an underrated factor..

I'm a lifetime ~56% Nba capper. Was about that and profited 30 units last year. I'm a huge westbrook critic. I don't think hes that great. His energy and effort is exactly what you want on a regular season over bet though! Yes, he might chuck 3s and lose a couple games but he will bring his best every night. I think the west will be even more competitive at the top this year. Warriors, Rockets, Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, Jazz, Thunder all have a reasonable shot at winning 50. This is my only west over bet because of that, as I think it's hard to really have a good grasp on what will happen this year. They were a premier defensive team and got rid of one of the biggest defensive liabilities in the league. They should be a top 3 defensive team. Westbrook and george with another year to gel together. No carmelo to ruin the flow of the offense. Dennis Schroder will be a 6th man of the year candidate. I like OKC to win 50-55ish and be the 3 seed. 

As far as wizards go....I understand the concerns with leadership and coaching but that roster in the east is too good not to win 45. By far my favorite future play. They had no bench (which is very important when it comes to regular season) and were missing wall for a chunk of the year. This time breaks 50 games without a sweat if they stay healthy.