And how many times were they on the road the night prior? How many times was the team they are facing coming off a win and a days rest? How many times of those 8-0 was Derozen involved? How many times was the spread -7 the next game? How many times of those 8 were versus a team in which they beat last time around?
Let's be realistic here, stats like that are meaningless. Coach Casey will try to win every game and get the most of his players. I should know. I live in Canada, they are my favorite team, and I watch every single one of their games from start to finish.
Yet this is about making money and betting the situation at hand.
Orlando +7 is the correct bet in this situation whether they cover or not.
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Quote Originally Posted by PhillyGoHard88:
RAPS 8-0 ATS after their last 8 over time games.
And how many times were they on the road the night prior? How many times was the team they are facing coming off a win and a days rest? How many times of those 8-0 was Derozen involved? How many times was the spread -7 the next game? How many times of those 8 were versus a team in which they beat last time around?
Let's be realistic here, stats like that are meaningless. Coach Casey will try to win every game and get the most of his players. I should know. I live in Canada, they are my favorite team, and I watch every single one of their games from start to finish.
Yet this is about making money and betting the situation at hand.
Orlando +7 is the correct bet in this situation whether they cover or not.
"Orlando +7 is the correct bet in this situation whether they cover or not."
That's hogwash.....if the Raptors cover the pointspread, then they're the correct play. If Orlando cover, then the were the right play. Don't tell me that Orlando is the correct play whether they cover or not. It's about winning and a loss does not constitute a correct play. Period!
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"Orlando +7 is the correct bet in this situation whether they cover or not."
That's hogwash.....if the Raptors cover the pointspread, then they're the correct play. If Orlando cover, then the were the right play. Don't tell me that Orlando is the correct play whether they cover or not. It's about winning and a loss does not constitute a correct play. Period!
"Orlando +7 is the correct bet in this situation whether they cover or not."
That's hogwash.....if the Raptors cover the pointspread, then they're the correct play. If Orlando cover, then the were the right play. Don't tell me that Orlando is the correct play whether they cover or not. It's about winning and a loss does not constitute a correct play. Period!
What that means is that if you ran this game 100 times under these same circumstances, Orlando would cover +7 somewhere in the range of 75-80 times (in my opinion) and that's why I say it's a correct bet win or lose. I feel like it's a +EV bet and that's all you can ask for when betting as there is no certainty in gambling.
But from your hostile response I'm guessing you don't know what +ev is.
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Quote Originally Posted by pinballwizard:
"Orlando +7 is the correct bet in this situation whether they cover or not."
That's hogwash.....if the Raptors cover the pointspread, then they're the correct play. If Orlando cover, then the were the right play. Don't tell me that Orlando is the correct play whether they cover or not. It's about winning and a loss does not constitute a correct play. Period!
What that means is that if you ran this game 100 times under these same circumstances, Orlando would cover +7 somewhere in the range of 75-80 times (in my opinion) and that's why I say it's a correct bet win or lose. I feel like it's a +EV bet and that's all you can ask for when betting as there is no certainty in gambling.
But from your hostile response I'm guessing you don't know what +ev is.
Wow, joe six pack takes down the house on this one. Orlando felt like the right side even when it was 74-72 late in the game. Orlando looked like the team that played an overtime game last night in NY,just unreal. Fukkk!
I pin wheeled them into too much shitt. should have just bet my 3-4 bests individually.
Fukk, 1/2 a point cost me 11K, you suck magic, cokkk suckers.
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Wow, joe six pack takes down the house on this one. Orlando felt like the right side even when it was 74-72 late in the game. Orlando looked like the team that played an overtime game last night in NY,just unreal. Fukkk!
I pin wheeled them into too much shitt. should have just bet my 3-4 bests individually.
Fukk, 1/2 a point cost me 11K, you suck magic, cokkk suckers.
Ouch. Max bet. How you gonna fade king Lowry like that. Crossed you're boys up pretty bad. Get em next time TO hater. TO number one team in the league this year.
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Ouch. Max bet. How you gonna fade king Lowry like that. Crossed you're boys up pretty bad. Get em next time TO hater. TO number one team in the league this year.
What that means is that if you ran this game 100 times under these same circumstances, Orlando would cover +7 somewhere in the range of 75-80 times (in my opinion) and that's why I say it's a correct bet win or lose. I feel like it's a +EV bet and that's all you can ask for when betting as there is no certainty in gambling.
But from your hostile response I'm guessing you don't know what +ev is.
I don't think you know what +ev is. There is really no +ev in sports betting first of all.
And, a right bet is a winning bet. And a wrong bet is a losing bet. To say that "Orlando +7 is the right bet whether it covers or not" is very silly, lol. There is NO argument, that the right bet is the one that WINS and the wrong bet is the one that LOSES. Doesn't matter what your analysis says or what you feel. You are right when you win and wrong when you lose. You're not right just cuz you feel that way, think that way, or your "analysis" says so. Cmon now. Gambling in sports is 50/50. You say you run it 100 times, and orlando will cover the majority? And I can easily say, you run it 1000 times and toronto will cover the majority. And we could BOTH be right. And BOTH be wrong. Doesn't matter either way.
The point is, in sports betting you can only find "edges". And even with THAT, you can still come out a loser in the end. Its not like in poker, where if you make only +ev moves, you will be ahead, because of the math, and as long as other plays are dumb enough to call your tight as play style. Anyway, what I'm saying is, there are only "edges". There's no "right" or "wrong" move. Just "moves" that have a slightly higher chance of winning than losing. Which mean not one friggin thing until the bet is graded a loss or a win.
And in this matchup? Both toronto and orlando have struggled offensively. With toronto having a wider spread of a defensive edge. AND being at home. Transaltion? The UNDER bet was the only real edge in this matchup. And even THAT could have lost. ANd could have been the WRONG move.
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Quote Originally Posted by Nuscas:
What that means is that if you ran this game 100 times under these same circumstances, Orlando would cover +7 somewhere in the range of 75-80 times (in my opinion) and that's why I say it's a correct bet win or lose. I feel like it's a +EV bet and that's all you can ask for when betting as there is no certainty in gambling.
But from your hostile response I'm guessing you don't know what +ev is.
I don't think you know what +ev is. There is really no +ev in sports betting first of all.
And, a right bet is a winning bet. And a wrong bet is a losing bet. To say that "Orlando +7 is the right bet whether it covers or not" is very silly, lol. There is NO argument, that the right bet is the one that WINS and the wrong bet is the one that LOSES. Doesn't matter what your analysis says or what you feel. You are right when you win and wrong when you lose. You're not right just cuz you feel that way, think that way, or your "analysis" says so. Cmon now. Gambling in sports is 50/50. You say you run it 100 times, and orlando will cover the majority? And I can easily say, you run it 1000 times and toronto will cover the majority. And we could BOTH be right. And BOTH be wrong. Doesn't matter either way.
The point is, in sports betting you can only find "edges". And even with THAT, you can still come out a loser in the end. Its not like in poker, where if you make only +ev moves, you will be ahead, because of the math, and as long as other plays are dumb enough to call your tight as play style. Anyway, what I'm saying is, there are only "edges". There's no "right" or "wrong" move. Just "moves" that have a slightly higher chance of winning than losing. Which mean not one friggin thing until the bet is graded a loss or a win.
And in this matchup? Both toronto and orlando have struggled offensively. With toronto having a wider spread of a defensive edge. AND being at home. Transaltion? The UNDER bet was the only real edge in this matchup. And even THAT could have lost. ANd could have been the WRONG move.
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