Tough night. The Cavs were clearly the wrong side. I was way off on that one. Hoping to get back on track tonight.
Pelicans -2 @ Suns
Factor: Trendy home dog/Fading the “hot” team
I’ve been waiting for this game since Friday because the situation is similar to the Wizards-Sixers a few days ago. Eerily similar to say the least. The Pelicans, just like the Wizards when they first battled the Sixers, were 9-9.5-point favorites in the first meeting. They built a double-digit lead in the beginning of the game only to give it up and lost the game outright. Now they’re only laying a bucket because the Suns are “hot” (haven’t lost against the spread) just like the Sixers before their second meeting with the Wizards. This overadjustment of 5-6 points after accounting for home court is tremendous value (there goes that word again). The Suns are picked to be one of the worst teams coming into this season (just like the Sixers) and their decent start to the season hooked the betting public again because we’re a bunch of bandwagoners. But as I always say, it’s better not to do it than to be late when it comes to riding a “streak.” With a tough three-game stretch on the horizon (vs. Pelicans, @Blazers, Nets), I’ll monitor the Suns on a game by game basis and fade this team accordingly. The Pelicans are the much better team and after a somewhat erratic start, they’re starting to find their groove after their wins against the Grizzlies on the road and the Lakers. I’ll go with the much better team laying only a bucket against a team that is clearly playing above their heads. Adding a little bit more because this game fits almost all the criteria I’m looking for when I study the games.
4.80u to win 4.56u
Wizards +9.5 @ Thunder
Factor: Riding the “progression”
I’m riding the Wizards for at least one last time because the betting public still sees them as perennial losers. Also, they’re too busy sucking the OKC love juice especially with Russell Westbrook back. OKC has the marquee names, playing at home and are only laying 10 points against a team that only knows how to lose. Sounds too simple isn’t it? This is why 95% of sports bettors are losers. They just pick the “better” team often regardless of the amount of points they’re laying because it’s harder to swallow when they bet their hard-earned money on a sucky team and the sucky team decided to lose big as expected. They like to “feel better” that they risked their money on the better team. I guess there’s nothing wrong with that but remember that the point spread is the great equalizer in sports betting. Give me enough points and I’ll take the worse team every single time. The Thunder, with all their star power and media hype, are not ten points better than the Wizards. Washington has more offensive firepower if you think about it. After Westbrook and Durant, the Thunder have no third guy to rely on to score the basketball. Nene’s return to the lineup greatly helped Washington to get back on track. He gives them inside scoring, interior defensive presence and high IQ basketball plays. While the Wizards have trouble stopping people inside, the Thunder fortunately have NO reliable scoring option inside unless they give points every time Kendrick Perkins frowns. I’ll take the 10 points with a team that the betting public knows NOTHING about.
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