Yeah and clips missed about 4-5 easy shots in a row when they were only down 4 I believe
Yeah and clips missed about 4-5 easy shots in a row when they were only down 4 I believe
How are these oddsmakers so good at this?I mean if you saw the 1st half or the score, you would figure it would go over in the 2nd half.
Dude, obviously you're still new to betting totals. Here's how it works.
FIRST HALF
Look at the full game total. Take half of that. A 1st half "normal" line should be within 1-2 points of that. (Which some 1st half lines are)
Example: Game ABC has a game total of O/U 220
First half line is 109-111
Don't bet this bc it's a complete coinflip and the odds makers don't care as long as they attract equal action on both sides.
IF it's considerably LESS than half of the full game total, take the under for the 1st half. Which means the 2nd half of the game will likely go over.
Example: Game ABC has a game total of O/U 220
First half line is 104-108
In the above first half line of 104-108, take the UNDER. Notice how it is considerably less than half of the full game total.
If the first half is considerably GREATER than half of the full game total, take the OVER for the first half. This means that the 2nd half will likely go under.
Example: Game ABC has a game total of O/U220
First half line is 112-115
In the above first half line of 112-115, take the OVER. Notice how it is considerably greater than half of the full game total.
For last night's game, the first half total for the Hornets @ Clips was 126. (I know cuz I took the over) The full game total was 239/240ish. What is half of 239/240? 120ish. The first half line should have been around 118-122 but it was 126 so you take the OVER for the 1st half. Also, you're wondering how you can calculate the half time O/U line in advance? Is it due to the current score? Surprisingly no. The 2nd half O/U should be:
Full game O/U MINUS first half O/U
It should be close to that. For this Hornets @ Clips game, the O/U was 239, 1st half was 126 and the 2nd half was 114? 126 + 114 = 239-240...
As long as you have the first half O/U, you can already predict the O/U for the 2nd half and anticipate the "story line."
2ND HALF
As a general guide line for betting 2nd half O/U's use this. If the first half went OVER half of the full game total, take the under for the 2nd half. If the first half went UNDER half of the full game total, take the OVER for the 2nd half. You can employ this strategy BLINDLY without even watching the game. If we lived in a world where there was NO JUICE, we were immortals who could replay this 2nd half scenario over a million times, this BLIND strategy would win 50.001% of the time. That, .001% makes this a winning strategy but due to juice, this strategy is probably unprofitable.
Also, don't bet this strategy yet. Employ it for a couple of weeks to test the validity of this strategy. On a side note, this betting strategy only applies to MAJOR college basketball games. Games that involve 2 big colleges. As for the rest of the other "small" colleges, it's whole lot more random and not profitable. Believe me, I would know cuz I tried applying it to college games and it simply does not work the majority of the time. The NBA is more "predictable" whereas college is more random.
Although this was a long read, it will be an essential tool in your tool box. Remember it and pass it along..
How are these oddsmakers so good at this?I mean if you saw the 1st half or the score, you would figure it would go over in the 2nd half.
Dude, obviously you're still new to betting totals. Here's how it works.
FIRST HALF
Look at the full game total. Take half of that. A 1st half "normal" line should be within 1-2 points of that. (Which some 1st half lines are)
Example: Game ABC has a game total of O/U 220
First half line is 109-111
Don't bet this bc it's a complete coinflip and the odds makers don't care as long as they attract equal action on both sides.
IF it's considerably LESS than half of the full game total, take the under for the 1st half. Which means the 2nd half of the game will likely go over.
Example: Game ABC has a game total of O/U 220
First half line is 104-108
In the above first half line of 104-108, take the UNDER. Notice how it is considerably less than half of the full game total.
If the first half is considerably GREATER than half of the full game total, take the OVER for the first half. This means that the 2nd half will likely go under.
Example: Game ABC has a game total of O/U220
First half line is 112-115
In the above first half line of 112-115, take the OVER. Notice how it is considerably greater than half of the full game total.
For last night's game, the first half total for the Hornets @ Clips was 126. (I know cuz I took the over) The full game total was 239/240ish. What is half of 239/240? 120ish. The first half line should have been around 118-122 but it was 126 so you take the OVER for the 1st half. Also, you're wondering how you can calculate the half time O/U line in advance? Is it due to the current score? Surprisingly no. The 2nd half O/U should be:
Full game O/U MINUS first half O/U
It should be close to that. For this Hornets @ Clips game, the O/U was 239, 1st half was 126 and the 2nd half was 114? 126 + 114 = 239-240...
As long as you have the first half O/U, you can already predict the O/U for the 2nd half and anticipate the "story line."
2ND HALF
As a general guide line for betting 2nd half O/U's use this. If the first half went OVER half of the full game total, take the under for the 2nd half. If the first half went UNDER half of the full game total, take the OVER for the 2nd half. You can employ this strategy BLINDLY without even watching the game. If we lived in a world where there was NO JUICE, we were immortals who could replay this 2nd half scenario over a million times, this BLIND strategy would win 50.001% of the time. That, .001% makes this a winning strategy but due to juice, this strategy is probably unprofitable.
Also, don't bet this strategy yet. Employ it for a couple of weeks to test the validity of this strategy. On a side note, this betting strategy only applies to MAJOR college basketball games. Games that involve 2 big colleges. As for the rest of the other "small" colleges, it's whole lot more random and not profitable. Believe me, I would know cuz I tried applying it to college games and it simply does not work the majority of the time. The NBA is more "predictable" whereas college is more random.
Although this was a long read, it will be an essential tool in your tool box. Remember it and pass it along..
You read that correctly. I don't have an exact winning percentage because I would have to have access a huge database with odds from multiple books along with the tools to process the exact bet conditions. Nonetheless 50.00001% whatever, is still WINNING (not a coin flip anymore) but it's NOT profitable due to the juice. Understand the difference. A "true coinflip" would have perfect conditions (inside a computer program) that over eternity, would yield 50/50 results. The juice/vig is what makes it not profitable. Why do you think for the superbowl, that the coin toss is priced at -105? If there was no juice, the strategy that I wrote above be profitable despite ANY minuscule small winning percentage. Also, (I'm not endorsing this by no means) there is a website, www.betlabssports.com that lets you test any system with past odds from multiple books and different conditions. Too bad it costs like $30 a month to subscribe to it. But it makes you think, with all that data that they have, the betlabsports.com would have found a profitable system. So, even before you subscribe to it, you can logically conclude that there IS no profitable system otherwise the website would have exploited it already.. Or is exploiting it right now..
https://www.betlabssports.com/
You read that correctly. I don't have an exact winning percentage because I would have to have access a huge database with odds from multiple books along with the tools to process the exact bet conditions. Nonetheless 50.00001% whatever, is still WINNING (not a coin flip anymore) but it's NOT profitable due to the juice. Understand the difference. A "true coinflip" would have perfect conditions (inside a computer program) that over eternity, would yield 50/50 results. The juice/vig is what makes it not profitable. Why do you think for the superbowl, that the coin toss is priced at -105? If there was no juice, the strategy that I wrote above be profitable despite ANY minuscule small winning percentage. Also, (I'm not endorsing this by no means) there is a website, www.betlabssports.com that lets you test any system with past odds from multiple books and different conditions. Too bad it costs like $30 a month to subscribe to it. But it makes you think, with all that data that they have, the betlabsports.com would have found a profitable system. So, even before you subscribe to it, you can logically conclude that there IS no profitable system otherwise the website would have exploited it already.. Or is exploiting it right now..
https://www.betlabssports.com/
Gotcha. You wrote your strategy as if it had more of an edge than simply 0.001% which is essentially a coin flip (yes I know it’s not exactly), and since vig is a real thing, renders your post irrelevant. Should be noted that you’re 0.001 number is completely made up - hey, could be actually more/significant, just that nobody knows. Good luck
Gotcha. You wrote your strategy as if it had more of an edge than simply 0.001% which is essentially a coin flip (yes I know it’s not exactly), and since vig is a real thing, renders your post irrelevant. Should be noted that you’re 0.001 number is completely made up - hey, could be actually more/significant, just that nobody knows. Good luck
^^^ Cool man. We're all on the same page then. But remember, "test run" the 1st half and the 2nd half strategy for the next couple of weeks/months and see what you get..
^^^ Cool man. We're all on the same page then. But remember, "test run" the 1st half and the 2nd half strategy for the next couple of weeks/months and see what you get..
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