Picks+Writeup for 3/14 **Been crushing all season**

Mavs@Hornets-6.5

Wolves@Suns-1

Blazers@Thunder-8

Pelicans@Warriors-15

Mavs@Hornets-6.5  TAKE HORNETS-6.5

I expect this one to get ugly.  Hornets are red hot, Mavs have not impressed me all year long.  Hornets play MUCH stronger at home and have been dominant especially recently at home.  I think there's no chance in hell that Dallas has of winning this game outright.  So, is this spread enough to make up for their shortfalls?  I think not.  I expect to see Hornets cruise to a victory here.  I think the only way Dallas covers here is via " the backdoor"...in other words, I expect it to be a double digit game going into mid 4thQ action.   Both teams have something to play for.  While Dallas is clinging to the 8th seed in the west, the Hornets are in the middle of the eastern playoff pack BUT only 4.5 games away from being the first team out of the pack.  In other words they need to keep their foot on the pedal.

Wolves@Suns-1 TAKE WOLVES+1

This line is a gross over-reaction to a rare decent suns performance.  In my opinion, the Suns are the weakest or 2nd weakest team in the league ahead of only the 76ers. The Wolves are probably the MOST UNDERRATED team in the league. Their record does them no justice.  Go back and look at how many close losses the Wolves have had to good (and bad) teams.  This team could easily be 9-10 games better than they are.  The Wolves stuck with OKC all game and ended up beating them.  The Suns hung with a Warriors squad that I believe is unraveling on the defensive end.  In their last 5 (4 at home) the Warriors gave up 116, 112, 95 (to a low scoring, slow-paced, defensive Jazz team), 113, 112.  The Warriors defense is NOT good...and neither are the Suns.  Don't be fooled, the Suns are not suddenly decent.  Note: Wolves destroyed them by 30 last meeting.  Take the much better team here.

Blazers@Thunder-8 TAKE BLAZERS+8

How bad does a team have to perform ATS before they start adjusting the lines in their favor?  The Thunder hold the worst ATS mark of all teams...and yet we are still seeing odds makers put out HUGE lines they have to cover.  Why? Popularity.  The thunder have 2 all-star marquee players in Westbrook & Durant and the public knows them and will keep betting on them like sheep.  The Blazers have 1 all-star snub and possibly a better bench.  When the starting 5 are on the floor, the Thunder should probably always win the battle, BUT when Durant or Westbrook rest (almost always 1 at a time), the 2nd unit is much, much, worse.  Durant cannot and should not run the point even when Westbrook is sitting.  We've seen time & time again Durant be prone to turnovers when he puts the ball on the floor and I expect to see more of the same.  3 of 4 bigs on OKC flat out cannot shoot a wide open 2pt jumper.  Ibaka, Collison, & Adams are just offensive garbage.  They can't even finish around the rim when their layup is contested.  This allows other teams to cheat the pick and roll and also to help off these 3 guys.  Ibaka and Adams play a lot of minutes too.  When Westbrook is not on the floor and Durant is, you will see the lane get clogged up with bodies and OKC has to settle for outside shots.  I'll leave my comments on the Blazers short since I went off on OKC...they are playing great.  We get a nice juicy line here only because the Blazers have lost 4/6 recently.  However, all 4 losses were TOUGH TOUGH road games.  @BOS, @TOR, @DET, @GS...there aren't that many teams that would come away with more than 1 win in that nightmare stretch.  So this recent tough schedule sets us up to get a fat 8 points when I believe this team is not falling off at all.

NO@GS-15  TAKE NO+15

NO is very banged up right now...the most notable injury is that of Norris Cole.  This team is definitely much better with Cole in the lineup BUT in their last meeting he also did not play.  These 2 teams have not matched up since playing twice in the very beginning of the season BEFORE the curry ankle injury in OKC.  In their first meeting Jrue Holiday and Norris Cole didnt play.  In their 2nd meeting which was also in October and only a few days later, Jrue Holiday was finally coming off injury and probably not 100%.  Now, I believe we see the roles reversed where Curry is nursing the ankle and Holiday is 100%.  In their 2nd meeting, NO was leading at halftime before Curry caught fire and poured in 30 something in the 3rdQ. That said I cannot back GS because the defense has been so pourous lately that Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday both might just put up 30 on them.   This game is just so tough to predict because GS has been defensively inconsistent as of late.  We would really have to know the extent to which Steph Curry's ankle is healed up.  I'm going on a limb and saying his ankle is not better quite yet.  When a team is giving 15pts and the object of the game is to win by 1 and make it healthy to the playoffs right around the corner...the potential for backdoor covers is very real.  Imagine a 3rdQ closing score of GS 85 - NO 70.  Are you comfortable as a GS bettor in that situation?  Are Curry/Green/Thompson even going to play in the 4th unless it gets close?  When one team gives another 15 points, the underdog better be a complete scrub team...NO is not as bad as their record.  This same team made the playoffs last year.  GS should obviously win this game, but I don't think it necessarily has to be a blowout.

I feel you. Cha has been on a roll lately. But Mavericks are on the verge of losing their playoff spot thanks to their 4(?) game losing skid. I think Mavs would be extra motivated in this game. and I think the spread is too much. Hornets may win I do not think this will be a blowout. Just my 2 cents tho.

BOL!

I'm leaning towards Mavs tonight. Playing terrible, I agree, but Hornets having more to play for? I disagree. Mavs are in a spot to at least cover tonight I believe. Hornets aren't putting their foot on the gas, they're cruising in the center lane. No chance for Charlotte to catch Toronto/Cleveland. Jazz on a roll in the West, Mavs come out to play tonight.

Great write-up for the Blazers game. Don't think I'll mess with that game, but interesting points you made. I felt the same way with the Red Sox last year...How many times do they need to get crushed until they start losing value?

BOL

also a 3 teamer moneyline parlay with toronto, miami, and charlotte 

best of luck tonight

I didn't say Hornets have "more" to play for I just pointed out that although they are in the middle of the playoff standings, the lower end of the eastern conference playoff picture has 4-5 teams separated by only a couple games. So Charlote can't afford to take one off just as much as the Mavs desperately need to win.

Good luck & thanks for the support BUT if you're betting to try to make money I would highly advise against parlays/teasers and similar -EV plays.  The best bet is always a straight wager.  If the line isn't wherre you want it to be just don't bet it.  If you look at the math behind parlays & teasers you'll see that you are giving up a ton of EV by playing these things against the books.  However, if you are betting for entertainment then by all means go for it.  The *bink* factor is very satisfying!  GL

They haven't been themselves over the last few games and they've given up a load of points to terrible teams.  Obviously their offense is historically great and able to make up for it, but still they shouldn't be giving up that many points to bad teams.

scratch that,  Stevenson & Carter suddenly questionable