Playoff Trends

For those who care, First time posting plays. My system hasn't been great as of the last two months, but taking trends into account with these plays. 

• Home teams that lost in Game 1 of a first-round series are just 7-5 SU & 3-8-1 ATS since ’13. Qualifying plays: Knicks + 6, Clippers +8, Miami +9, Lakers -1

• #4 seeds are just 13-21 SU & 11-23 ATS since 2013 in the game following a loss. Plays: Knicks, Clippers

• Road favorites of 4.5 points or more are 37-8 SU and 30-14-1 ATS (68.2%) last 45. Plays: Sixers -4.5

• the lowest totaled first-round playoff games over the last four postseasons, 218 or less, UNDER the total is 45-27-3 (62.5%). Plays: Cavs UNDER and Sixers UNDER

• home teams that won in Game One of a first-round series are 26-7 SU and 24-9 ATS (72.7%) since ’16. Plays: Boston -10.5 and Denver -8.5

• Game Twos with double-digit home favorites have gone UNDER the total at a 12-3 (80%) clip since ’13, with only four of the visiting foes eclipsing 100 points. Plays : Boston Under

• -  First-round Game Three home teams went just 1-7 SU and ATS (12.5%) in 2022 and are now just 6-18 SU and 7-17 ATS (29.2%) since 2019. Plays: Sixers -4.5, Kings +7 (HUGE PLAY FOR ME), possibly Pheonix.

• 4 seeds are 15-33 ATS after a loss – Plays: Knicks +6, Clippers +8

• Game 2 with double digit home favorite are 11-3 ATS to UNDER the total. Plays: Boston UNDER game total.

Final Plays:

• Knicks +6 and game UNDER 214
• Clippers +8
• Miami +9
• Lakers -1
• Sixers -4.5 Game three and UNDER 208.5
• Boston -10 and UNDER 230.5
• Denver -8.5
• Kings +7 (LARGE)

Just thought I would join the forum for once.  Would love any thoughts or feedback. 

All the results from the 2020 bubble summer camp fake playoffs should be thrown out. These trends are not helpful with 2020's meaningless results included.

@MrBator

 Is Scott foster in play tonight? Any insight is appreciated on the late game

Forget about Scott Foster. 

It’s tricky to evaluate Suns games because they’ve had this Durant version of the team on the floor for only 9 games out of the 83 they’ve played this season.

I stay away from almost all of their games because I hate them wildly for going belly up in last year’s playoffs. Them being the favorites to win the Western conference is a total joke.

@MrBator

 Thank you so much. I was on Sacramento +2.5 yesterday do u like anything tomorrow.  I'm away and trying to beat up the sportbook here 

Sticking with the plan tonight. 
Lakers, Miami, Denver.   
200 each. 

3-2 so far.  

@bookburner

Going back to 2016, home teams that won the first game of a series (any round) by 20+ points won the second game by more than 8 points 67% of the time ( 16-8 record )

Favors Nuggets -8 

GL

Keep em coming 

Road teams in first round Game 6s are 17-11 SU & 20-8 ATS in the last six seasons. Additionally, holding home teams to just 94.0 PPG, games have gone UNDER the total in 20 out of 28. Road teams in this scenario looking to close out a series are 11-6 SU & ATS.

#2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 37-6 SU & 28-15 ATS when favored by 4.5 points or more.

Road favorites of 4.5 points or more in a series closeout scenario are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS since the start of the ’13 postseason.

Picks : Boston -7 and Under 231.  

Just food for thought.

NOT excluding the covid year.