Posted:
#1
2-1 last night. I have the following for today:
Raptors -1 @ Bucks
Factor: Wrong team favored (opening line)/Short road dog to fave
There’s a common belief that home court in the NBA is worth three points. While that rule of thumb cannot be applied to every team since there are teams with weaker or stronger HCA (e.g. Utah’s is stronger than Charlotte’s), it’s a good starting point.
This game opened at Raptors getting a point. It jumped at me immediately. I drilled it down further and it’s a play I have to make. The oddsmakers, by setting a line this low on the road team, believe that the Raptors are clearly better than the Bucks. If we give two-three points for home court, this line indicates that the Raptors would be favored if this game is played on a neutral site. It has since now moved to a pick em and even the Raptors becoming the favorite in some places. Further strengthening this play is the fact that the Bucks came back from 22 down to beat the Celtics on the road. To expend enormous energy to come back and win a game like that is physically and emotionally draining especially in a young season like this where the players are still getting back in shape. Talent wise, the Raptors are more potent than the Bucks who decided to release their scoring guards in the offseason.. While I don’t believe in “desperation” mode, the Raptors clearly stand to lose more if they start the season slow. I read somewhere that if things aren’t looking good by December (or the first 45 days of the season), there would be a massive house cleaning with new GM Ujiri taking over the reins of the basketball operations.
Spurs @ Blazers +1.5
Factor: Popular road favorite
Retooling the roster depth was Portland’s biggest priority this offseason and they more or less addressed that. Acquiring players such as Mo Williams, Robin Lopez, Thomas Robinson and Earl Watson adequately fills what they lack last season. There are a lot of times last season where the starters would build a big lead only for the bench guys letting it fizzle away almost instantaneously. The rebuilt depth of the Blazers would come in handy in this game playing their third game in four nights.
On the flip side, the Spurs are also playing their third game in four nights. Coach Popovich is notorious for giving his key players limited action in games like this because he knows the season is long. He would not risk the potential long term success of his team to gain a few wins early in the season. This is also Portland’s home opener and with the West wide open this year, they believe they have a shot to make the playoffs. A home opener win against the defending Western Conference champions would be huge for the morale of this team and they know it. Playing in Portland is always tough and this one won’t be any different. Give me the home team getting points.
Bulls -8.5 @ Sixers
Factor: Popular home dog
Two straight wins and people are flocking to bet their hard earned money on the 2013-2014 Philadelphia 76ers (betting is roughly split between the two sides). Getting nine points again at home against a team that’s not currently playing well is a fucking steal right? Unfortunately, Vegas doesn’t give free money. The Bulls haven’t played well since their red hot preseason performance. You have to believe the Coach Thibodeau drilled them down in practice following the Knicks game where they blew a double digit lead and almost lost the game outright. The Sixers’ back to back wins are nice but they don’t mask the fact that they’re just a terrible team all around as mentioned in my previous write up. I’ll take the rested, pissed off Bulls team who’s playing way below their expected form against this Sixers team who’s patting themselves in the back a little bit after a nice couple of games.
2.80u to win 2.66u each
NBA: -0.42 units
Raptors -1 @ Bucks
Factor: Wrong team favored (opening line)/Short road dog to fave
There’s a common belief that home court in the NBA is worth three points. While that rule of thumb cannot be applied to every team since there are teams with weaker or stronger HCA (e.g. Utah’s is stronger than Charlotte’s), it’s a good starting point.
This game opened at Raptors getting a point. It jumped at me immediately. I drilled it down further and it’s a play I have to make. The oddsmakers, by setting a line this low on the road team, believe that the Raptors are clearly better than the Bucks. If we give two-three points for home court, this line indicates that the Raptors would be favored if this game is played on a neutral site. It has since now moved to a pick em and even the Raptors becoming the favorite in some places. Further strengthening this play is the fact that the Bucks came back from 22 down to beat the Celtics on the road. To expend enormous energy to come back and win a game like that is physically and emotionally draining especially in a young season like this where the players are still getting back in shape. Talent wise, the Raptors are more potent than the Bucks who decided to release their scoring guards in the offseason.. While I don’t believe in “desperation” mode, the Raptors clearly stand to lose more if they start the season slow. I read somewhere that if things aren’t looking good by December (or the first 45 days of the season), there would be a massive house cleaning with new GM Ujiri taking over the reins of the basketball operations.
Spurs @ Blazers +1.5
Factor: Popular road favorite
Retooling the roster depth was Portland’s biggest priority this offseason and they more or less addressed that. Acquiring players such as Mo Williams, Robin Lopez, Thomas Robinson and Earl Watson adequately fills what they lack last season. There are a lot of times last season where the starters would build a big lead only for the bench guys letting it fizzle away almost instantaneously. The rebuilt depth of the Blazers would come in handy in this game playing their third game in four nights.
On the flip side, the Spurs are also playing their third game in four nights. Coach Popovich is notorious for giving his key players limited action in games like this because he knows the season is long. He would not risk the potential long term success of his team to gain a few wins early in the season. This is also Portland’s home opener and with the West wide open this year, they believe they have a shot to make the playoffs. A home opener win against the defending Western Conference champions would be huge for the morale of this team and they know it. Playing in Portland is always tough and this one won’t be any different. Give me the home team getting points.
Bulls -8.5 @ Sixers
Factor: Popular home dog
Two straight wins and people are flocking to bet their hard earned money on the 2013-2014 Philadelphia 76ers (betting is roughly split between the two sides). Getting nine points again at home against a team that’s not currently playing well is a fucking steal right? Unfortunately, Vegas doesn’t give free money. The Bulls haven’t played well since their red hot preseason performance. You have to believe the Coach Thibodeau drilled them down in practice following the Knicks game where they blew a double digit lead and almost lost the game outright. The Sixers’ back to back wins are nice but they don’t mask the fact that they’re just a terrible team all around as mentioned in my previous write up. I’ll take the rested, pissed off Bulls team who’s playing way below their expected form against this Sixers team who’s patting themselves in the back a little bit after a nice couple of games.
2.80u to win 2.66u each
NBA: -0.42 units
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