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#1
SO, here is info that would qualify as a LEAN (75% ref tendency with at least a 20 game sample)on the DEN/LAL game.
The three refs...
TRE MADDOX - has only one game in the past two years with either of these teams, so kind of inconsequential info and he is the wildcard. IF I had some more info on him, this might be a stronger play.
RODNEY MOTT - He has been UNDER on the last 5 DEN games he has officiated and 7 of the last 9 laker games.
GARY ZIELINSKI - Under 6 of the last 8 on DEN games and 3 of the last 4 laker games.
Trend is 21-5 combined, but has the variable of an unknown ref.
Lakers are 4 unders and 0 overs this year. DEN is 3 overs and 0 unders this year.
This total is off by 3-4 pts and should be in the 194-195 range. I would still play under even at 194, but that would obviously be a tighter call.
LEAN - DEN/LAL UNDER 198.5
Leans are 2-1 in this system, and including stronger plays the system is 6-1 (totals are 5-0).
UNDERS are also hitting at slightly over a 60% (29-19-1) clip for every game in NBA this season. Combining the two theories, this is a similar play to the ORL under last night but not quite as strong.
Best of luck, use this info as you choose.
The three refs...
TRE MADDOX - has only one game in the past two years with either of these teams, so kind of inconsequential info and he is the wildcard. IF I had some more info on him, this might be a stronger play.
RODNEY MOTT - He has been UNDER on the last 5 DEN games he has officiated and 7 of the last 9 laker games.
GARY ZIELINSKI - Under 6 of the last 8 on DEN games and 3 of the last 4 laker games.
Trend is 21-5 combined, but has the variable of an unknown ref.
Lakers are 4 unders and 0 overs this year. DEN is 3 overs and 0 unders this year.
This total is off by 3-4 pts and should be in the 194-195 range. I would still play under even at 194, but that would obviously be a tighter call.
LEAN - DEN/LAL UNDER 198.5
Leans are 2-1 in this system, and including stronger plays the system is 6-1 (totals are 5-0).
UNDERS are also hitting at slightly over a 60% (29-19-1) clip for every game in NBA this season. Combining the two theories, this is a similar play to the ORL under last night but not quite as strong.
Best of luck, use this info as you choose.
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