Rockets -13.5

Lakers @ Rockets -13.5

Factor: Trendy huge road dog

The Lakers are one of those teams that have premium attached to their spreads because of reputation. That’s why they are one of the worst teams in covering spreads even if they had decent to great teams in the previous seasons. Betting them over the years is normally a losing proposition (101-126 ATS in the past three seasons).

Now they’re getting 14 points against an unproven team that is still finding their identity. Normally I would say that 14 points is too much to lay in an NBA game but this Laker team is really bad. The oddsmakers cannot set the line too high because they need to compensate for the fact that people with their hard earned money will back a popular team like the Lakers getting double digit points in a primetime spot. The betting public can’t fathom that they are getting 14 points with the Lakers against a non-elite team like Houston (not yet anyway). Just like how they bet games involving the Heat, Knicks and the Thunder so far, they can’t stay away from betting the popular teams.

There’s also a belief that teams play harder when shown in national TV. Maybe they do play harder but playing harder does not necessarily lead to wins or close scores. The “need to win so they will” and “desperation mode” myths need to be stopped.

You know how much the oddsmakers don’t respect this Laker team? The Bobcats were 12 point underdogs in Houston’s season opener. Now the Lakers are getting 14 points even if they’re playing somewhat decently. Look past the name and logo. They’re simply outclassed in this match-up. They don’t play any lick of defense. So far this season, they’re getting destroyed when they get matched up against teams that could run up the score (see their games against Dallas and Golden State). Houston plays a style that is conducive to covering large spreads. The talent gap is so wide between these teams that I can’t see how the Lakers can keep this one close. They are overmatched in every position. They can’t stop backcourts with tremendous firepower (e.g. Ellis, Klay Thompson) because their guards are too slow. Their coach doesn’t preach or advocate defense. They don’t have the size to stop or even contain Dwight Howard and Omer Asik. They don’t have anything to exploit against Houston.

Houston doesn’t play defense as well but in a track meet (over/under for this game is 219 so it’s expected to be wild), I’ll take the far superior team. With all the negative press Dwight Howard got last year, people already forgot how good he is. This Laker team is bad and I’ll fade them on the road whenever I can until the public catches on. They are a type of team that you back at home when they’re catching enough points and fade on the road whenever they’re matched up with an offensive powerhouse. Don’t mind the huge points you’re going to lay. The Rockets win this one by at least twenty.

3.2u to win 3.04u

YTD: +10.56 units