Denver Nuggets -1.5 at Phoenix
The Suns are just too inconsistent for me not to go with Jokic and the Nugs in this spot. Denver got a much needed 2 days of rest while PHX is going to be in the second game of a b2b after a 36 point win over Houston - setting up for a major letdown spot. Going back to inconsistency, the Suns are 1-6 ATS their last 7 following a straight up win and 1-7 ATS over their last 8 home games. Until they can start to duplicate quality performances, especially at home, they'll continue to be fade material. It looks like Paul Millsap will finally be in the lineup to take some pressure off Jokic in the post. Jamal Murray has been fantastic since returning and Jerami Grant looks probable to suit up. Slowly but surely, Denver is getting their guys back.
Indiana Pacers -2 vs. New Orleans
Not the best spot for the Pacers as they're on a b2b, but it's tough to fathom them losing 4 straight on their homecourt where they hold an 18-8 record this season. Oladipo is being held out for rest but I don't see that being much of an issue. They've struggled since his return, going 1-4 and losers of 4 straight. Due to Indy's recent struggles, I think this line is setting up to get action on the media darling Pelicans. With Brandon Ingram questionable to go today (I think he sits since we're this close to the break), I think the law of averages point to the Pacers getting back on track at home today.
Charlotte Hornets +4.5 vs. Dallas
Dallas is playing their 4th game in 6 days, rolling into Charlotte after a buzzer beater loss at the hands of Bradley Beal and the Wizards. This line, which opened up at -3.5, has already spiked to -4.5 and is begging for Mavs backers. I think their road ATS numbers are due to regress at some point, and playing without Doncic while on minimal rest, this is as good of a spot as any for that trend to continue. Charlotte is 1-9 SU over their last 10, but has still managed to cover 4 of those games. With 3 days rest and having a completely healthy roster, I think the fresh legs put them in a position to win outright.
Detroit Pistons -1 vs. New York
The Knicks have won 3 straight and proceeded to go 8-2 ATS over their last 10. Detroit is on the second game of a b2b, just traded their star player in Drummond, will be without D. Rose, and have a slew of other injuries they're dealing with -- New York is an easy winner here, right? With all of that info pointing against Detroit today, this is more or less a contrarian play where I'm fading NY
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