FiveThirtyEight's NBA prediction model, which has not been kind to the Golden State Warriors all season long, finally believes the team is favored to win the NBA Finals.
At the outset of the series, the model gave the Boston Celtics an 80% of winning the Finals. Now, after Golden State took a 3-2 series lead by winning Monday night's Game 5, the model has the Warriors as favorites with a 63% chance of being crowned champions.
The model is still quite bullish on the Celtics however — it gives Boston a 74% of winning Game 6 on Thursday night, and lists a hypothetical Game 7 on Sunday as a pure coin flip with 50-50 odds. If Boston were to win Game 6, the model could very go back to favoring Boston in the series, given the fact that the model's parameters seem to really like the Celtics over the Warriors.
It is literally all odds based. If the Celtics are -165 in game 6 and you bet 1K you’d have 1600 total if they won. They’d be around +160 in game 7 so if you took your 1600 and pressed that would win roughly 2600 added to your 1600 is 4200 total less your 1K for 3200 profit. Hence why Boston is around+300 to +320 depending on your site
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