Rare but solid situation. Since 1997 Underdogs that won 10 or more games
(Clippers) than their opponents (Lakers) in the previous season are 17-6-0 (73,9%) ATS with avg line 3.3 in the season opener.
It seems the public perception and the reality are separate in these
openers. I hate to bet so early in the season but Clippers + points
looks tasty. Yep Lakers are different team from last season but Clippers
core is more solid and play together for longer time.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Rare but solid situation. Since 1997 Underdogs that won 10 or more games
(Clippers) than their opponents (Lakers) in the previous season are 17-6-0 (73,9%) ATS with avg line 3.3 in the season opener.
It seems the public perception and the reality are separate in these
openers. I hate to bet so early in the season but Clippers + points
looks tasty. Yep Lakers are different team from last season but Clippers
core is more solid and play together for longer time.
Thanks for posting this great stat. I thought it pertained particularly well to this Lakers-Clippers matchup. This system also applies to tonight's Bulls-Hornets opener in Charlotte.
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Thanks for posting this great stat. I thought it pertained particularly well to this Lakers-Clippers matchup. This system also applies to tonight's Bulls-Hornets opener in Charlotte.
Thanks for posting this great stat. I thought it pertained particularly well to this Lakers-Clippers matchup. This system also applies to tonight's Bulls-Hornets opener in Charlotte.
It's really good to start the season with winner I hope more people tail this amazing stat cause I saw that majority of the forum were trapped in that "public perception vs reality" thing that I mentioned. People need to realize that sportbooks know their stuff and sometimes you need to see behind the curtain. Yep the Hornets qualify tonight. The bad thing here is that I think they are the worst team in the league right now and I'm not sure it's smart idea to back them. Last night we had Clippers on our side which was more solid I also checked that very small favorites (- 1 to - 2.5 points) in the same situation (Kings) are 11-4 SU and 10-4-1 ATS with avg line - 1.9. This also could work cause we have opportunity to back more solid previous season team on short line (close to ML). Unfortunately If Kings move to - 3 we don't have a play cause the medium favorites from - 3 to - 7 are around 50-51% during that span.
So for tonight we have
Underdog system: Hornets + (this could wait till GT cause the bettor will pound the favorite here for sure) Small Favorites system: Kings - (I'm not sure this will stay within - 2.5 points)
I think Kings are the better pick cause their core play together for enough long time. Suns add some pieces but their lack of identity always disappoint me. I think I will try both of them cause of the system but really don't like the Hornets bet.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Thanks for posting this great stat. I thought it pertained particularly well to this Lakers-Clippers matchup. This system also applies to tonight's Bulls-Hornets opener in Charlotte.
It's really good to start the season with winner I hope more people tail this amazing stat cause I saw that majority of the forum were trapped in that "public perception vs reality" thing that I mentioned. People need to realize that sportbooks know their stuff and sometimes you need to see behind the curtain. Yep the Hornets qualify tonight. The bad thing here is that I think they are the worst team in the league right now and I'm not sure it's smart idea to back them. Last night we had Clippers on our side which was more solid I also checked that very small favorites (- 1 to - 2.5 points) in the same situation (Kings) are 11-4 SU and 10-4-1 ATS with avg line - 1.9. This also could work cause we have opportunity to back more solid previous season team on short line (close to ML). Unfortunately If Kings move to - 3 we don't have a play cause the medium favorites from - 3 to - 7 are around 50-51% during that span.
So for tonight we have
Underdog system: Hornets + (this could wait till GT cause the bettor will pound the favorite here for sure) Small Favorites system: Kings - (I'm not sure this will stay within - 2.5 points)
I think Kings are the better pick cause their core play together for enough long time. Suns add some pieces but their lack of identity always disappoint me. I think I will try both of them cause of the system but really don't like the Hornets bet.
Here is another more complicated system that I'm not sure that will work cause we have more conditions to apply.
Since 1996: 2 or more pointsEastern Conference good team (with at least 44 wins in the previous season) road underdogs within the first six gamesof the season are 108-53-5 (67.1%) ATS with avg line 5.2. This apply for Celtics (solid team) tonight.
Since 1996: Celtics are 7-1 ATS as underdogs with avg line 6.8 in their openers.
I created this system yesterday and will track it from now on. I'm not sure if it will work cause the results for the Western Conference in the same condition are around 50%. So maybe these results are fluke.
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Here is another more complicated system that I'm not sure that will work cause we have more conditions to apply.
Since 1996: 2 or more pointsEastern Conference good team (with at least 44 wins in the previous season) road underdogs within the first six gamesof the season are 108-53-5 (67.1%) ATS with avg line 5.2. This apply for Celtics (solid team) tonight.
Since 1996: Celtics are 7-1 ATS as underdogs with avg line 6.8 in their openers.
I created this system yesterday and will track it from now on. I'm not sure if it will work cause the results for the Western Conference in the same condition are around 50%. So maybe these results are fluke.
It's almost game time and I'm really not sure that Hornets play pertain the system well. I look deep at their roster and they are really pathetic... I mean worst team in the league by far. As much I love my season opener underdog system I just can't invest on such team. Last night there were Clippers... different story. There is no way Hornets will repeat their last season win record so maybe there is a pretty good reason for that line. I really like the other two system plays for tonight so:
Celtics + 6 Kings - 1.5
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It's almost game time and I'm really not sure that Hornets play pertain the system well. I look deep at their roster and they are really pathetic... I mean worst team in the league by far. As much I love my season opener underdog system I just can't invest on such team. Last night there were Clippers... different story. There is no way Hornets will repeat their last season win record so maybe there is a pretty good reason for that line. I really like the other two system plays for tonight so:
Funk, wouldn't the previous season wins also include playoffs though? Or did you eliminate playoff games from your query and just focus on previous season wins from the reg season?
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Funk, wouldn't the previous season wins also include playoffs though? Or did you eliminate playoff games from your query and just focus on previous season wins from the reg season?
Funk, wouldn't the previous season wins also include playoffs though? Or did you eliminate playoff games from your query and just focus on previous season wins from the reg season?
Just regular season. The code is PRSW (previous regular season wins). I use this criteria for the first 5-10 games in the season cause really there isn't much we can use so early.
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Quote Originally Posted by AussieDownUnder:
Funk, wouldn't the previous season wins also include playoffs though? Or did you eliminate playoff games from your query and just focus on previous season wins from the reg season?
Just regular season. The code is PRSW (previous regular season wins). I use this criteria for the first 5-10 games in the season cause really there isn't much we can use so early.
Hornets actually hit. I make some pocket money profit on ML parlay with Charlotte and Minny. The Underdog Season Opener System hit 2-0 this season... something to consider in the next one. Small underdog system is 0-1... what a fiasco for Kings in the second half. I still think that system would work in the future. The eastern conference BS system is 0-1 also. I think these past results are fluke and this won't work at all but will track it to see what will happen. Bucks + points qualify for tonight here.
Another system that I created minutes ago. Just checked since 1996 how teams went on home openers (Warriors) against team that already played this season (Clippers). SDQL code is: game number = 1 and o:game number = 2 and H
This hit 60.9% over the time with 42-27-3 ATS. Small sample size of 72 games of course. Maybe the sportbooks know that the team that already played is more in "real game" mode and somehow inflate the lines for them so the value is for the home opener teams. Let see if Warriors will cover tonight.
Tomorrow will open new thread and finally will start cap games without following these "blind" systems.
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Hornets actually hit. I make some pocket money profit on ML parlay with Charlotte and Minny. The Underdog Season Opener System hit 2-0 this season... something to consider in the next one. Small underdog system is 0-1... what a fiasco for Kings in the second half. I still think that system would work in the future. The eastern conference BS system is 0-1 also. I think these past results are fluke and this won't work at all but will track it to see what will happen. Bucks + points qualify for tonight here.
Another system that I created minutes ago. Just checked since 1996 how teams went on home openers (Warriors) against team that already played this season (Clippers). SDQL code is: game number = 1 and o:game number = 2 and H
This hit 60.9% over the time with 42-27-3 ATS. Small sample size of 72 games of course. Maybe the sportbooks know that the team that already played is more in "real game" mode and somehow inflate the lines for them so the value is for the home opener teams. Let see if Warriors will cover tonight.
Tomorrow will open new thread and finally will start cap games without following these "blind" systems.
Warriors are so bad and depleted and this line is so low. I can't see how Clippers are bad bet tonight and still think there is something fishy. Of course my system for home opener against team that already played in the season show me that Warriors are 60% ATS bet but still strange line. With the current situation for both teams this could be -3 Clippers with an ease and we will have enough action on both sides. I will try GSW tonight with small system play pocket cash as I did previous days cause I don't want to miss any value for working system.
For now Bucks don't qualify for the EC underdog solid teams system cause we need at least 2 points line and we are in 1.5 range right now.
Tomorrow I will open new thread with my first regular bet (1 unit as usual) of the season. It's an easy road winner and it's like Chuck says: Guaranteeeeed
1
Warriors are so bad and depleted and this line is so low. I can't see how Clippers are bad bet tonight and still think there is something fishy. Of course my system for home opener against team that already played in the season show me that Warriors are 60% ATS bet but still strange line. With the current situation for both teams this could be -3 Clippers with an ease and we will have enough action on both sides. I will try GSW tonight with small system play pocket cash as I did previous days cause I don't want to miss any value for working system.
For now Bucks don't qualify for the EC underdog solid teams system cause we need at least 2 points line and we are in 1.5 range right now.
Tomorrow I will open new thread with my first regular bet (1 unit as usual) of the season. It's an easy road winner and it's like Chuck says: Guaranteeeeed
Warriors are so bad and depleted and this line is so low. I can't see how Clippers are bad bet tonight and still think there is something fishy. Of course my system for home opener against team that already played in the season show me that Warriors are 60% ATS bet but still strange line. With the current situation for both teams this could be -3 Clippers with an ease and we will have enough action on both sides. I will try GSW tonight with small system play pocket cash as I did previous days cause I don't want to miss any value for working system.
For now Bucks don't qualify for the EC underdog solid teams system cause we need at least 2 points line and we are in 1.5 range right now.
Tomorrow I will open new thread with my first regular bet (1 unit as usual) of the season. It's an easy road winner and it's like Chuck says: Guaranteeeeed
Did you read the stuff I posted about the line opening at my book yesterday with Clippers +2 -105! Amazing. It went to Clippers -1 in 30 minutes. Were those sharps pounding that line, or squares? I gave up on this game once I saw Foster officiating.
The important trend for the Bucks game is teams playing overseas (Rockets) are 2-12 ATS in their home opener!
Good luck
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Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:
Warriors are so bad and depleted and this line is so low. I can't see how Clippers are bad bet tonight and still think there is something fishy. Of course my system for home opener against team that already played in the season show me that Warriors are 60% ATS bet but still strange line. With the current situation for both teams this could be -3 Clippers with an ease and we will have enough action on both sides. I will try GSW tonight with small system play pocket cash as I did previous days cause I don't want to miss any value for working system.
For now Bucks don't qualify for the EC underdog solid teams system cause we need at least 2 points line and we are in 1.5 range right now.
Tomorrow I will open new thread with my first regular bet (1 unit as usual) of the season. It's an easy road winner and it's like Chuck says: Guaranteeeeed
Did you read the stuff I posted about the line opening at my book yesterday with Clippers +2 -105! Amazing. It went to Clippers -1 in 30 minutes. Were those sharps pounding that line, or squares? I gave up on this game once I saw Foster officiating.
The important trend for the Bucks game is teams playing overseas (Rockets) are 2-12 ATS in their home opener!
Did you read the stuff I posted about the line opening at my book yesterday with Clippers +2 -105! Amazing. It went to Clippers -1 in 30 minutes. Were those sharps pounding that line, or squares? I gave up on this game once I saw Foster officiating.
The important trend for the Bucks game is teams playing overseas (Rockets) are 2-12 ATS in their home opener!
Good luck
Just read it. I think everything point for Clippers to win tonight and both sharps and squares should be on them. But as we know this is NBA...so illogical league sometimes. Maybe I will pound Bucks/Warriors parlay combo with pocket cash for fun
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Did you read the stuff I posted about the line opening at my book yesterday with Clippers +2 -105! Amazing. It went to Clippers -1 in 30 minutes. Were those sharps pounding that line, or squares? I gave up on this game once I saw Foster officiating.
The important trend for the Bucks game is teams playing overseas (Rockets) are 2-12 ATS in their home opener!
Good luck
Just read it. I think everything point for Clippers to win tonight and both sharps and squares should be on them. But as we know this is NBA...so illogical league sometimes. Maybe I will pound Bucks/Warriors parlay combo with pocket cash for fun
Rare but solid situation. Since 1997 Underdogs that won 10 or more games (Clippers) than their opponents (Lakers) in the previous season are 17-6-0 (73,9%) ATS with avg line 3.3 in the season opener. It seems the public perception and the reality are separate in these openers. I hate to bet so early in the season but Clippers + points looks tasty. Yep Lakers are different team from last season but Clippers core is more solid and play together for longer time.
Is this stat works for Jazz tonight? or is it just for the first game?
SUPERDOG
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Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:
Rare but solid situation. Since 1997 Underdogs that won 10 or more games (Clippers) than their opponents (Lakers) in the previous season are 17-6-0 (73,9%) ATS with avg line 3.3 in the season opener. It seems the public perception and the reality are separate in these openers. I hate to bet so early in the season but Clippers + points looks tasty. Yep Lakers are different team from last season but Clippers core is more solid and play together for longer time.
Is this stat works for Jazz tonight? or is it just for the first game?
Is this stat works for Jazz tonight? or is it just for the first game?
There is a stat that work for Jazz tonight.
In the first two games of the season 3pt or higher underdogs that won 10 or more games than their opponents in the previous season are 32-15-1 ATS with avg line 4.0 since 1996. Not sure if this system will work in long term but if you need something to be more confident in your Jazz pick this could be useful. I also like Utah to cover tonight but my regular big investment is on the Wolves.
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Quote Originally Posted by bangboy:
Is this stat works for Jazz tonight? or is it just for the first game?
There is a stat that work for Jazz tonight.
In the first two games of the season 3pt or higher underdogs that won 10 or more games than their opponents in the previous season are 32-15-1 ATS with avg line 4.0 since 1996. Not sure if this system will work in long term but if you need something to be more confident in your Jazz pick this could be useful. I also like Utah to cover tonight but my regular big investment is on the Wolves.
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I hope more people tail this amazing stat cause I saw that majority of the forum were trapped in that "public perception vs reality" thing that I mentioned. People need to realize that sportbooks know their stuff and sometimes you need to see behind the curtain. Yep the Hornets qualify tonight. The bad thing here is that I think they are the worst team in the league right now and I'm not sure it's smart idea to back them. Last night we had Clippers on our side which was more solid 
I also checked that very small favorites (- 1 to - 2.5 points) in the same situation (Kings) are 11-4 SU and 10-4-1 ATS with avg line - 1.9. This also could work cause we have opportunity to back more solid previous season team on short line (close to ML). Unfortunately If Kings move to - 3 we don't have a play cause the medium favorites from - 3 to - 7 are around 50-51% during that span. 
Keep bringing the FUNK
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