Slims Sharp Play (Fade the Public)

3-0 yesterday + 4 units
Milwaukee Portland and Philly were all winners and pure system plays as the public was 70% on each opponent plus each winner was the home team. My only mistake under those "perfect storm" circumstances was not wagering more. I also won 'Nova and Lasalle but lost Temple in CBB (Can you tell where I'm from?) Today my initial lean is the Lakeshow. With 90% of Public pounding OKC at the end of a road trip I'm really thinking ill take my chances on a re-energized LAL with their backs against the wall.
Ill be back later with official plays and possibly other leans or plays.
Please provide feedback and your leans. Lets work together to beat the book!!
Cheers

Nice work Slim. I see your up early working hard like myself. Have any leans today? OKC line looks fishy sort of like NY/Phi line.

Sometimes I fade the public on totals as well. Of course we must all do our research before committing to this strategy.

I think if the Lakers incorporate Gasol into the starting lineup they have a descent shot at earning the victory. As I mentioned in another thread, Perkins may have a problem with the Lakers bigs and if he's slow to rotate Nash will surely take advantage of it. LA defense has looked nice as well. Seen a lot of Perkins in Boston and he has plenty awful days.

Slapem --
I agree with the lean. I also noted earlier in this thread. My main consideration is locking in profit. These plays are out here 5-7 times a week NBA and more in CBB. Look at 'Nova and G'town yesterday. I'm up a nice margin. I've learned Sundays are days where if your at or over your weekly goal just stop or play small. Whatever I do it will be small not b/c of a lack of belief but risk mgmt.

I think OKC is just spent they've been on the road for ever. The line movement will be key. If this line reverses I may go larger than I plan.

Heat and OKC road favs at 83% support.
The public are dopes, sorry to offend anyone.
Boston also has the Ray Allen hatred motivational factor.
LAL backs against the wall. I see a split worse case.

where do you look for your public plays? or consensus? covers consensus i think is just the covers voting on teams.

www.thespread

Vegasinsider is a great source to see which way the $$ is moving..

Thx tinoker55

Liking the rationale on Dallas today as well. Phx 4th gm in 5 days vs a well rested Dallas team. Line scares me though. That factor is definitely priced in.

What do you think about the revenge factor for the Clips.  Line is high for a team that has not been winning much but Clips may be very motivated as they almost won last night. 

clips will def win on the home and home tonight....question is do they cover 8.5?

vixen-
I'm not factoring in revenge for this particular game. I look at the B2B factor for both teams and the Clips simply not playing good ball right now. I think 8.5 pts is WAY to much for the Clips to lay right now. They are over valued plus the public is banging the Clips at a 70% rate.

I'm laying off the Celtics game. They are old and have fell apart at the end of their last 2 gms. I like the Celts + 3.5 just not enough to risk winnings. There are alot of strong plays later. Headed by Dallas and Portland.
GL to all. Still leaning LAL +3

slim no rondo also although usually the smart play is to pound the team with the injury, boston has been a total mess without rondo on the floor. Best is to pass on this game

uote: Originally Posted by Slim-Daddy] vixen-
I'm not factoring in revenge for this particular game. I look at the B2B factor for both teams and the Clips simply not playing good ball right now. I think 8.5 pts is WAY to much for the Clips to lay right now. They are over valued plus the public is banging the Clips at a 70% rate.
[/Quote]

The public gets smashed again. I wonder if the casual bettor has any money left??

FADE THE PUBLIC THE SYSTEM WORKS!!

No more plays for me. Very profitable week.