Posted:
#1
Hi.
I almost never post but I decided to return share some thought.
I lost quite a bit of cash, and more than $ I wasted too much valuable time. So I think its time for me end this exciting journey.
Just FYI, I did pretty well in sports 2nd half bets only, but other bets I sucked.
As all of you know, there is nothing as a 100% lock. But there are some patterns that I found to be very interesting that repeats itself.
I only bet 2nd half because its based on 1st half information. I believe that generally depending on the way things happen often results in similar results
I collected data from last couple of years and these are the ones that worked well.
Over Under theory
NBA
- When first quarter both teams tie its generally over. 75% ish
- when 2nd quarter both teams tie, its generally under: 75% ish
- there are some more patterns but this year it was only about 50%
NFL
When first half ties, the favored team covers: this was pretty good this year. I think the only loss was seattle vs SD couple of weeks ago. For a while it was favored and under.
Another pattern that worked really well was when heavy favored was losing first half and had a spread to tie the game. This also worked well last 2 years but didnt work the last 3 weeks of season
NCAAF
When a favored team blows out the other team, 2nd half is generally under. I believe this is because they start running the ball, using more clock. Also to put up a lot of points require more running which slows the pace down.
The way I did my 2nd half bets were I pretty much created spread sheet of all data and created categories of pattern. This was a great money making tool for 2nd half but too time consuming and distracting.
I would be happy to answer any questions on what I looked for and how I made my decisions.
Best of luck!
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