1-1-1 yesterday, Suns didn't foul on the final Laker possession.. fishy.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-2)
It is tough to determine why the Thunder have a 6-point implied advantage, because of the Mavs injury woes. I can usually decide why a team has a certain advantage by looking at the public betting figures, but injuries make it much more variable.
That being said, the odds are stacked against the Mavs. They are playing without 2 starters in Nowitzki and Butler. The Mavs also got a tough draw on referees and are only getting a slim 0.45-point home advantage.
Yes, the Mavs are still a talented team without the German and Butler, but they have no one to match Durant’s scoring capability. The Thunder will definitely be looking to avenge their home loss to the Mavericks (the game that Dirk left at half). The Thunder imploded with a 12-point 4th quarter in that game, don’t expect that to happen again. National TV is a big boost for the Thunder and a detriment to the Mavs, who aren’t very confident without their star players.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
1-1-1 yesterday, Suns didn't foul on the final Laker possession.. fishy.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-2)
It is tough to determine why the Thunder have a 6-point implied advantage, because of the Mavs injury woes. I can usually decide why a team has a certain advantage by looking at the public betting figures, but injuries make it much more variable.
That being said, the odds are stacked against the Mavs. They are playing without 2 starters in Nowitzki and Butler. The Mavs also got a tough draw on referees and are only getting a slim 0.45-point home advantage.
Yes, the Mavs are still a talented team without the German and Butler, but they have no one to match Durant’s scoring capability. The Thunder will definitely be looking to avenge their home loss to the Mavericks (the game that Dirk left at half). The Thunder imploded with a 12-point 4th quarter in that game, don’t expect that to happen again. National TV is a big boost for the Thunder and a detriment to the Mavs, who aren’t very confident without their star players.
I am curious why you are waiting out the public to make a more informed decision?
Are you waiting to see if they are betting the way *you* think they should? Doesn't this move you away from a *fact* based decision as opposed to a *math* based decision?
Just trying to understand your methods as I think your predicitions of which games to bet are better than most.
I am curious why you are waiting out the public to make a more informed decision?
Are you waiting to see if they are betting the way *you* think they should? Doesn't this move you away from a *fact* based decision as opposed to a *math* based decision?
Just trying to understand your methods as I think your predicitions of which games to bet are better than most.
I am curious why you are waiting out the public to make a more informed decision?
Are you waiting to see if they are betting the way *you* think they should? Doesn't this move you away from a *fact* based decision as opposed to a *math* based decision?
Just trying to understand your methods as I think your predicitions of which games to bet are better than most.
I just have wait for a public trend to be established, which usually takes about 4,000 wagers on the game. This way I can compare my Vegas advantage calculation to how heavily the public is betting that team, because that is usually the driving force behind Vegas "shades."
I find that when the Vegas advantage is lower than it should be, as compared to the public betting trends, that constitutes a play on the public favorite (who should have a larger advantage.)
When I find that the Vegas advantage is higher than it should be, as compared to the public betting trends, that elicits a play on the team that in not the public-favored bet.
These 2 above scenarios went 60.7% and 64.9% ATS, respectively, in the month of December.
There is a wiggle-room of about 2 points, any public betting trends landing within 2 points of my calculated Vegas advantage are ignored. Any games that have a calculated Vegas advantage on one team but the public favors the other side are also ignored, these 2 scenarios proved to be about 50/50 in December.
Quote Originally Posted by tuna411:
I am curious why you are waiting out the public to make a more informed decision?
Are you waiting to see if they are betting the way *you* think they should? Doesn't this move you away from a *fact* based decision as opposed to a *math* based decision?
Just trying to understand your methods as I think your predicitions of which games to bet are better than most.
I just have wait for a public trend to be established, which usually takes about 4,000 wagers on the game. This way I can compare my Vegas advantage calculation to how heavily the public is betting that team, because that is usually the driving force behind Vegas "shades."
I find that when the Vegas advantage is lower than it should be, as compared to the public betting trends, that constitutes a play on the public favorite (who should have a larger advantage.)
When I find that the Vegas advantage is higher than it should be, as compared to the public betting trends, that elicits a play on the team that in not the public-favored bet.
These 2 above scenarios went 60.7% and 64.9% ATS, respectively, in the month of December.
There is a wiggle-room of about 2 points, any public betting trends landing within 2 points of my calculated Vegas advantage are ignored. Any games that have a calculated Vegas advantage on one team but the public favors the other side are also ignored, these 2 scenarios proved to be about 50/50 in December.
Tuna, I also give weight to which referees are calling the game. I believe all refs have certain tendencies, and those tendencies are usually home-away sensitive. Of course, I evaluate refs by strict statistical sets, same way as I do most everything.
Thanks for your interest.
Tuna, I also give weight to which referees are calling the game. I believe all refs have certain tendencies, and those tendencies are usually home-away sensitive. Of course, I evaluate refs by strict statistical sets, same way as I do most everything.
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