Posted:
#1
Denver looked pretty sharp the other day on both sides of the ball, at least after the 1st quarter. But lets also understand that Jason Kidd had 8 turnovers, which means 8 less possessions. To give you an idea of how rare that is, it tied a career high for him, and he had just 3 turnovers the entire series with the Spurs. You have to think Kidd will clean it up here. But aside from the bounceback status for the fundamentally sound guard, I think you have to look at simple probability. Anytime you play consecutive games, back to back against the same opponent with the same point spread, probability suggests a split. Of coarse it's not automatic to just take the opposite of everything that happens in game 1, but with Dallas's leadership and knowing this may very well be their last chance to win the big one, I have to assume the Mavs will play inspired ball to attempt to get this back to Dallas tied up. And with the Lakers losing last night, that will help Dallas's psyce but assure the Nuggs they don't have to rush. The Nuggs are loaded and have solid bench play, especially with Chris Anderson. But Jason Terry is as good-a-sixth man as you'll find in the NBA. It's smaler known veteran players like this who will be called upon and hurt you the most when it's needed (reminds me of players like R.Horry- how many times did he kill a point spread with a clutch 3!). Look for Terry to have a role from the perimeter as the Mavs may want to keep it away from Anderson the shot blocker. Denver has won 14 straight home games, though.
One thing for sure- Jason Kidd will not be turning it over 8 times again, which will mean 6-7 extra possessions for the Mavs- which translates into a few more scoring opportunities. Dont get me wrong Denver is great, but it's that veteran leadership combined with a better 2nd effort and better game plan that's prevented Dallas from not having a single instance all season where they've lost consecutive games by more than 7 points.
Take Dallas plus the points.
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