Suns +10.5 POD ytd 18-11-0

Went 0-2 yesterday with Thunder and Celtics.... very frustrating trying to get back on track again! I'm liking some of the night games as well, and will post the night game pick here later.

I don't want to seem too cocky on this forecast of these games, but I think the whole card has some easy gems here, and these games shouldn't be too over-thought. Hawks ML could be a nice little bonus play tonight too...but for sure... I would at least recommend staying the heck away from that Hornets @ Heat game.

I want this POD record to end finishing at least 65% for the season, that is my main goal. If it looks like at any point I'm pulling away and don't have a shot to do for this NBA season, my capping will stop. Maybe it's too daunting a goal for me....but I need reason to keep the pressure up and not slack off.. Having the goal at only 60% will not keep me disciplined enough.

Ok, enough ranting...


Pick:
Suns +10.5

Early games seemingly tend to not be blow outs as often as they might be planned or expected to be, and this should be no exception. The number one goal the Suns have had set on their mind lately, is to play better on the road. Despite still losing road game after road game, they've been playing in tough places and looking better over time. I think too, certain teams have a certain tolerance level for how long they let losing streaks last, and the Suns aren't THAT bad that getting 6 losses in a row isn't a big deal for them.

By losing at home against Dallas on Thursday... call me crazy, but I'm thinking they might have been looking a bit ahead to this game, as they won't have another road game after this for a long time. And they've been showing great improvement on their play on the road, and not getting any W's out of it. I think they will pull out all the stops here, and I really...really  see no reason why they won't.

Ah yes, the Clippers....I'd say they are contenders when it gets to playoff time, but I still think they are more vulnerable right now compared to most other contending teams. I think they'd need to improve their usual defense for this game, if they'd want to win easily by double digits. And I don't think that will suddenly happen, and I think they will be a bit too satisfied with trading baskets with the Suns. That alone gives the Suns a great chance to even steal this game here!

I like how the Suns have front court players with better than decent jumpshots, and I think they could give the Clippers front-court players trouble. The Suns main disadvantage is that they are soft, but luckily that shouldn't be as big of a concern against the Clippers, compared to some recent opponents the Suns already just had to play on the road recently, and they stayed close in those games. Clippers aren't exactly the tough guys of the league...

I really see a great chance on the Suns ML too! I'll put some on it for sure. Will post the night game pick here later.




Good luck to everyone else on their plays

BOL abnormality

Great write-up! I agree with a l
BOL!

what makes you think Jordan and Griffin as "soft"? Is Chris Paul "soft"?

Phoenix looking ahead to a Dec game?

 They did flat lay down Thursday and all I can say is if the Clips decide to show up, you are looking at a train wreck...that's the key...you do realize the team your choice here is laid down to the Mavs on a B2B who lost the night before to the Clips by 24...

I supposes "soft" is a strong word for some. I'll use "toughness" here instead. Dallas won a title, while still not being the toughest team in the league for sure...heck, physical toughness is still just one element of many of being a good team, as shooting, athleticism (which Griffin still relies on too much, he's young still give him time) and fundamentals still being just as important if not more at times.

I suppose maybe I struck a nerve. Trust me the Clippers are great, and I definitely wouldn't categorize a guy who arguably could be the best player in the league (in my opinion, I think it's LeBron 1st, CP3 2nd), such as CP3, and call him "soft". But I wouldn't say he's the toughest player in the league either.

And to your point about the Mavs, don't you think they weren't playing at least just a bit pissed off after being beat by 24? Most of the time, I'd rather back teams coming off the receiving end of a blowout, rather than a team that just got done dishing one out.

"supposes" I sound like a 4 year old their or something. I wish for an edit function

@hoyasaxa is right, because if the clips show up, there is no chance for the suns. They've been on a bit of a run, destroying teams that are feeble. Including the Mavs who just beat the suns. Hate DD, however I would have to side with the Clips here. 

i think clips spank them, gortat has been doing garbage lately. if they cant get inside scoring they will not even keep it close vs the clips

No doubt I could be wrong, its handicapping, but still also gambling. But the Suns knowing they just have a huge string of home games after this, they won't look past this chance for a road victory (remember, doesn't mean they'll actually win, but they will over exert themselves for 48 minutes). I don't see why they'd be completely drained here either. I like the motivation "spot" better for the Suns here. Definitely don't like the "team" better though, who does?

 One weird thing about these big spread games too....I think as long as the Suns as long don't go to overtime, like they did against Memphis.....in my view, I think they can cover. Reason why that teams that play against teams way above their level, still can lose out on big spreads in OT, is because they over exert themselves and let it all on the floor till the buzzer of regulation....but then since they have nothing left after.. they can get crushed in short time in OT.

Said I will post a night game as well, here it is

Pick:
Rockets -5.5

A shorter, but to the point write up on this one.

Normally I'd be cautious to back a young and inconsistent team without much leadership, such as the Rockets, but when teams like this get a kick to their rear and get schooled from actual "mature" and "experienced" opposing teams their previous game, you know that's when they'll actually show up, at their following game.

The Rockets are playing on the 2nd night of a back-to-back, but they only had to travel back home from San Antonio. Mavericks on the other hand, have had 3 games in 4 nights and some decent traveling that time. Mavs also coming off a nationally broadcasted road win... but lets face it, they have not been playing too well for little while. They have not been a reliable enough team that any wise person should think they will turn things around and start up a winning streak, anytime soon. The hold back of Dirk's return has not been good for their confidence.

In the end, I'll gladly put some money on the line to dare the Mavericks to show up on two consecutive road games in a row. Not to mention that they may have a banged up Marion and Kaman for this game, if they do end up suiting up tonight.


Other sides I like tonight are:
 

Warriors -4.5 ( maybe a bit tired, but are too hot to not take against the Wizards )

Spurs -8.5 ( don't overthink this, they did a great job with minutes on last nights game, trust the Spurs),

Hawks +7 ( they play up to the elite teams level and can win this one and I'll put some on ML )

Blazers -6 ( maybe a risk on the Blazers after finishing a long road trip, but the Kings really are in a big reality check spot here. If the Kings show up well for 3 games in a row, the world WILL explode! )

Though in the end, I decided to go with the Rockets as my main play for tonight.



Thanks for the feedback so far and BOL to everyone

BOL 

your point on Griffin's game-he's been starting to take jump shots and making them-he's been making them in practice and his team is encouraging him like crazy to take them-look...this dude is on a path to Karl Malone territory-he's not soft or whatever you want to call it, and when he starts making jumpers, it'll open up the lane again for him and others...and you should seriouly take your $ and run for cover at the point...

Suns don't impress me as the type fo D that will concern him out back or down low- who's afraid of a bunch of Euros? Clips have already lost at home taking some scrubs lightly...the way I see it, it's a lot easier for a blowout than a cover-you will have to work for it...that spells Clips or pass to me...

Rockets

I'm with u Abnorm. sounds like you did your research.
BOL to everyone who has the suns today.

Like I said he's still young, and he's only getting better. Just don't trust his toughness on the defensive end, or his mental toughness completely just yet. Lots of potential superstar players need enough years and playoff experience to fine tune those 2 traits. Took LeBron some time too.

Thanks for that. Can just call me Ab for short if you want.

Now don't get me wrong, a write up on why a pick is made can look smart and all, and still end up losing. Whether I had the right ideas in mind really don't matter if it the picks lose out. Even whether or not luck ended up a factor, as more often than not luck will favor good capping over time. That's why I set this goal of 65% percent or better, otherwise to me, my writeups and picks will just be too high % of space consuming..... time wasting.... gibberish.

I try to force myself to write these out each time, maybe for my own good and that I know it CAN possibly contribute better to the forum, rather than just posting picks. Seems a lot of posters that would do writeups end up disappearing frequently, so I'm hoping I can stick this out. One drawback is it can make people look a bit more foolish when they are on the losing side. But that shouldn't let anyone from trying to write something about why they chose their picks, or from disappearing suddenly. Haters are always around anyways!

Writing reasoning can also give people a better idea too if they want to tail if they so chose, as even good cappers can be mentally off at times. I know for sure I do better and can think more clearly on days that I don't work, for example. Or get too cocky...say by not passing on enough games they aren't fully sure enough on or etc.. Say if someone sometimes write reasons that seem a bit off maybe or bit too narrow minded (even if on most nights they are usually a good capper) then people can decide maybe not to tail whoever this time around, for example. When I would tail people's picks before trying this on my own, I would rather go with one that had at least one listed reason or more, so if I did lose on it, at least I knew what they were thinking.... and shared their same philosophy on it, rather than left wondering "what was that person even thinking for this?".

In the end, we need winners though. And these early games can be a bit tricky. Hope the Suns compete in this game as planned for us

GL to you-it won't be as planned for me...

Clips-10...

BOL to you  

Well, that didn't go so well in the 4th...


Well maybe I should avoid big plays on day games, think I've yet to guess right on the few I've done so far. I'll tip my hat to you Hoya, and the Clippers, for them getting the job done and playing hard in this kind of game, as they should to contend. Really ended up a turnover disaster for the Suns and the Clippers capitalized, and they pissed off Blake Griffin and he balled with no fear.

Hopefully things go better tonight

Was with you on the Suns, the difference was actually the Clipper bench, Bledsoe and Crawford were just absolutely ridiculous....Crawford is averaging 50% shooting and 45% 3 pt shooting at home, and was leading the NBA in 4th quarter points (7.8 I believe) until he had 13 today in the 4th......I truly believe that 1-11 the Clippers are the deepest team in the NBA, and if Odom gets back into 75% of his form and Billups gets healthy, with a leap made from D Jordan and Blake playing angry, this Clipper team cannot be slept on....yes they will go through lulls and the defense sometimes leave a lot to be desired, but they have so many off the ball scorers and two monsters on the glass that can create 2nd chance opportunities....also for a 12:30 game in LA the crowd was pretty decent....the Clippers team can go as far as Paul, Blake and Crawford take them