SUNS @ KINGS help me

Does this seem a little fishy only -3 points to the kings?????

need advice cause im going to drop a huge beat on the suns 

Thinking same.. But I'll be a sucker and will be all over PHX

CHAMBERS-3

taking PHX in a teaser with the Saints  so  PHX +2  Saints +11

kings played san antonio pretty tough...suns came off a win against the nuggets...suns are better shooters than kings...both make turn overs but the suns havent done that...suns ml

Take SUNS all the ways down .. This line will going-up ...

TAKE THEM SUNS!!!!!!!!!

 

 

Instead of placing that bet on Phoenix, try to spend your day thinking about how the Suns pretty much suck.  Then consider placing that huge bet on the Kings instead.

ever since SAC lost 13-0 in OT to CLE ( i teased SAC  to +10.5 )....
i swore i would need a very very good reason to ever back  ballSACramento again...

i fully acknowledge they are the devils team..............

they suck you in with spirited play for vast periods of the game...and then undo all their promising effort.....with a few severe lapses in almost every game.....

BUT ,..having said that....i have learnt to trust Line movements alot in the last few months....this is a good enough reason to dive back into the SAC pool......

and it's better for you as a gambler to let go of any long term bias towards or against sides (although fading NJN this year is most definitely understandable.....i am guilty of that myself...i will NOT bet on the NJN this year )

and when i see 80% consensus on PHO ....yet the line has dropped from  PHO  -3.5 to -3.0

something's going down.....

the books want your money on PHO..........


i hated having to bet MEM @ home to LAL this week......but it had to be done.......i teased MEM to +7.5...and there was never a moments panic during that whole game.....MEM was always the right pick that day....

the line screamed for action on LAL .......and what happens....MEM cover & win SU.

i know it's hard to apply meaningful line movements and statistics to a shitty unreliable side like SAC.

i wll live and die with SAC tomorrow..but i'll tease them to +9.5

 a SAC SU win is most definitely a LIVE DOG......
you will  get a good run for your money with it...

that's what the books are telling you with this line.....

if the line is at PHO -2.5 before game time......that's all the information you need.....SAC will win SU.

if the line stays at PHO -3.0....but the public consensus stays at a 3:1 ratio in favour of PHO.....i'd still be confident on SAC +3.0

only if the line blows back out to PHO -3.5 would i consider  dropping the SAC play....


the books  know gamblers  get confused and excited, when they see a tasty line like PHO -3...but you have to read between the lines....the excitement of such a small line blinds them from what they really  should be looking at......BIG MONEY ON SAC is keeping the line down . PROFESSIONAL MONEY ON SAC.

much as we all think we're big time NBA bettors...we are not...

the real whales bet 10's of thousands on games and they have far more sophisticated ways of obtaining premium information.

they leave their imprint on the lines that vegas and the books set...this is what all prudent NBA bettors should pay attention to.



my 3 game teaser will most likely be: ( unless line movements closer to the game suddenly swing away from the current trends)

DET +9.5                            buying 6pts
SAC +9.5                           buying 6.5pts
MIL @ NYK > 190.5           buying 10 pts

i should get a dividend of around $2.50   ( +150 )


i hope the SAC pool has some water in it ,...otherwise it could be another unfortunate accident that could have ( and should have) been avoided

some will ask me

"why buy pts if i predict a SU SAC win or ATS cover ? "

it's so i don't have to deal with the last minute bullshit of having to rely on 1 lucky basket going in / or out.
..or some shady looking decisions or plays that look like the fix is in

i have had the most enjoyable year of NBA betting ( i've been at it for 3 years...) ever since i opted for a 3 game teaser @ 2.50 ( +150)
buying 6 pts on sides ,...and 10 pts on totals....

it works for me....

so that's the way i play...buying pts is the best way to relieve the stress only the NBA can  produce

if i lose a game ,...then i know i was on the  WRONG option  ...because even after buying pts ,..i still couldn't get a win.......
i don't deserve the win.....there's nothing more i could do...

but when i used to play ATS or totals without buying pts...so many times i'd be on the right play ,..only to watch it get fucked up in the last minute or 2.......

and i just got sick of it...

the key is to find a way of playing the NBA ,..so that you enjoy it when you win...and you can still sleep good at nights ,..even when  you lose...

when you're betting every day...and it's a long season..you don't want to be miserable too many times..it will leave its mark on you...and you'll be one sad MF.

would you rather be happy and content and win a little consistently on MOST days ?

or be delirious 1 or 2 days a week,, winning big.......and fuming and spitting the other 5 or 6 days per week ,..giving most of it back ?

i am no nba expert although i play everyfrickin day however i seriously dont get this line. put down $300 on phoenix and i hope they cover -2.5. good luck but i think we are litlle fishy fishy.

PHX. -2.5hmmmmmmm. I smell a giant rat!!

you're fucking right man.  I like the Kings alot in this game. they might get straight up win or cover easy.

kings ml

As much as I think the Suns suck, that they don't have any business laying points on the road, I'm not sure I've recovered emotionally/mentally from what was unequivocally the worst beat of my handicapping career (this includes, but not limited to, the 35-yard hail mary touchdown by Colorado this year against Nebraska,  the Kings-Lakers 2OT game earlier this season, and the 2005 Sugar Bowl under, where Penn St and FSU's kickers combined to miss like 5 field goals to push the game into three or four OT's thus ensuring the over).  Enough of my little rant.  I'm still personally wrangling over whether to bet the Kings in this game, but I'll tell you one thing, the Suns couldn't be further from the right side.

Projected Score:

Phoenix 107 Sacramento 108

Sacramento by 1

Power Play Sacramento +2.50

Alternate Play 3 point BUY Sacramento +5.50

Note: My model has Sacramento winning outright, but I personally think they will lose, but they will stay within the spread. However, If I was a betting man, I rather grab an extra 3 points for an  effective spread of Sacramento +5.50.

Whenever I consider betting on a Suns game I first think about the opposing point guard because it's widely known Nash is one of the worst defensive pg's in the NBA. Think back a couple of weks ago when Chicago was at Phx and grabbing some decent points. I was all over the Bulls because no way was Nash gonna be able to contain Rose. What happened is Rose went off and made Nash look old. Now occaionally Nash will play well against an elite pg like Parker, Rondo, Kidd but Nash usually struggles with the big, athletic pg's like Rose and Tyreke Evans.

That being said I'm all over the Kings tonight because I believe the Suns will have no answer for Evans. I also think that Hill will be guarding Martin which should be another defensive mismatch for the Suns.

Kings big!!!!

Holy hell...who is that in your avatar.

hope you took the suns.

 

Completely with you on that CO hail mary that was completely undefended and wide open.  Think that's the quickest 500.00 I've ever lost.  Anyway, good luck in the future.

SAC SUX