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Trust's Wednesday Picks (7-2 YTD)

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Posted: #1
After a 4-0 Monday, 3-2 Tuesday, I'm looking for a third consecutive winning day.

Write-up's if requested as always. Thoughts/opinions welcome. I don't mind giving my mind on other games either.

For those who don't know, I started with $2000. Every bet is 2% of whatever my starting balance was that day.

Right now I'm $2171. 2% = $43.42 (round down to $43).

I will *never* make more than 4-6 plays a day, and most days will have less than 5. This is my experiment on what being ultra selective and adhering to a VERY strict money management system will yield. As always, no parlay's.

My Wednesday picks:

NBA-
Indiana -9
Miami -15.5
Houston +2.5

NCAAMB-
Vanderbilt +18.5
Saint Louis -4

Best of luck as always!!
 
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Posted: #2
As stated in the OP, all bets are $43 to win $39. 2% of my starting balance the day the wagers were made.
 
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Posted: #3
Lakers as a mere one point favorite over the Hornets should be easy money.  No way they lose tonight after the OKC game.  Shocked that the spread is so low.
 
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Posted: #4
I agree with you actually. Best of luck, I may end up adding that to my card as the final play.

Very happy with the games and spreads tomorrow. Easy money to be made in my opinion.
 
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Posted: #5
best of luck to you too my friend.

Good call on the houston pick.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by huskerdu25:

best of luck to you too my friend.

Good call on the houston pick.
Hope you're right! 
 
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Posted: #7
IND -9? thats pretty high if you ask me.
gl tho!

i totally agree with you HOU, DAL is already "gone fishing"

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by LetEMride:

IND -9? thats pretty high if you ask me.
gl tho!

i totally agree with you HOU, DAL is already "gone fishing"


My rationale is ... Boston looked bad tonight against the horrible sixers. Now they're playing back to back road games on consecutive days against a rested pacers team that's fighting to hold onto second and boasts the nbas best defense.
 
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Posted: #9
tube anal juices splurge
 
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Posted: #10
Under miami heat 
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by huskerdu25:

Lakers as a mere one point favorite over the Hornets should be easy money.  No way they lose tonight after the OKC game.  Shocked that the spread is so low.

If I were your bookie, I'd love your line of thinking.
 
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Posted: #12
What's your full take on the Mia clearing -15? I know they are on a tear, however in the last 10 of their wins @ hm, only once have they actually beat someone by more than 15. They have lost their last 3 of last 4 >-10 fav at home during this win streak. They have won by dd 5 of last 10 @ hm but only 1 surpassing 15.
 Orl this yr as >+10 are 7-1 ats. Coming off a win, maybe playing their hearts out and catching Mia not being worried about winning by -15 however assuring they claim the victory by 9-12 and walking off the court. When Mia comes home off the road, the next game they are winning by 4,5,7,10,16,loss, 7,3. Again showing they are not destroying teams, however, assuring they have the home win aside from the one loss shown and that was vs NY beginning of the year. So ML you can probably run to the bank and take full withdrawal for, the -15 scares me though.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by lrempel:

What's your full take on the Mia clearing -15? I know they are on a tear, however in the last 10 of their wins @ hm, only once have they actually beat someone by more than 15. They have lost their last 3 of last 4 >-10 fav at home during this win streak. They have won by dd 5 of last 10 @ hm but only 1 surpassing 15.
 Orl this yr as >+10 are 7-1 ats. Coming off a win, maybe playing their hearts out and catching Mia not being worried about winning by -15 however assuring they claim the victory by 9-12 and walking off the court. When Mia comes home off the road, the next game they are winning by 4,5,7,10,16,loss, 7,3. Again showing they are not destroying teams, however, assuring they have the home win aside from the one loss shown and that was vs NY beginning of the year. So ML you can probably run to the bank and take full withdrawal for, the -15 scares me though.


If the spread scares you take miami tt or first quarter  or 4th
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by lrempel:

What's your full take on the Mia clearing -15? I know they are on a tear, however in the last 10 of their wins @ hm, only once have they actually beat someone by more than 15. They have lost their last 3 of last 4 >-10 fav at home during this win streak. They have won by dd 5 of last 10 @ hm but only 1 surpassing 15.
 Orl this yr as >+10 are 7-1 ats. Coming off a win, maybe playing their hearts out and catching Mia not being worried about winning by -15 however assuring they claim the victory by 9-12 and walking off the court. When Mia comes home off the road, the next game they are winning by 4,5,7,10,16,loss, 7,3. Again showing they are not destroying teams, however, assuring they have the home win aside from the one loss shown and that was vs NY beginning of the year. So ML you can probably run to the bank and take full withdrawal for, the -15 scares me though.

Irempel all of that is great info and I always say the two best factors to use when capping are stats and situations. Today, I feel the situation outweighs the stats.

All I've heard from the heat players lately is how cool they think the streak is. I really believe Orlando will have given up for the season by now (or at least will NOT be wanting to go into Miami to play the best team in the league on the hottest tear). 

Both teams are rested but I don't think one day off is enough to keep Orlando within 20 with how the heat are playing.

We shall see!

Also, added lakers -1.5. Card is now final for the day.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by trustandfall:


Irempel all of that is great info and I always say the two best factors to use when capping are stats and situations. Today, I feel the situation outweighs the stats.

All I've heard from the heat players lately is how cool they think the streak is. I really believe Orlando will have given up for the season by now (or at least will NOT be wanting to go into Miami to play the best team in the league on the hottest tear). 

Both teams are rested but I don't think one day off is enough to keep Orlando within 20 with how the heat are playing.

We shall see!

Also, added lakers -1.5. Card is now final for the day.


 Don't take me wrong here, I've seen some of your plays and they are good :) I like your reasoning behind games. As you say situation though, I find the stats i've shown are from past and very recent situations. If they were say high let's say on this streak, then why not every win by over 10+ or 15+ pts. Especially at home where as I've mentioned have only been beating teams by 7-12. 3 times in this win streak they have lost ats numbers greater than -10 at hm. I see them as getting the win and not really caring about blowing teams out, or they would be doing that all the time.

 Love the Lakers play. My take on that
  Lakers have been playing well lately. This game is similar to when the Lakers visited NO in Dec. They had played the night before vs Hou and lost. Travelled to NO where they normally play great and walk out victorious, and come out with a 16 pt win. Lakers are looking to close in on the playoffs, and have not lost 2 straight last 6 losses having won those contests by 22,14,6,7,11, and 18. They  are 7-1 su @ NO last 8, needing a win they come in and do as they have lately and not loose 2 in a row.
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by lrempel:



 Don't take me wrong here, I've seen some of your plays and they are good :) I like your reasoning behind games. As you say situation though, I find the stats i've shown are from past and very recent situations. If they were say high let's say on this streak, then why not every win by over 10+ or 15+ pts. Especially at home where as I've mentioned have only been beating teams by 7-12. 3 times in this win streak they have lost ats numbers greater than -10 at hm. I see them as getting the win and not really caring about blowing teams out, or they would be doing that all the time.

 Love the Lakers play. My take on that
  Lakers have been playing well lately. This game is similar to when the Lakers visited NO in Dec. They had played the night before vs Hou and lost. Travelled to NO where they normally play great and walk out victorious, and come out with a 16 pt win. Lakers are looking to close in on the playoffs, and have not lost 2 straight last 6 losses having won those contests by 22,14,6,7,11, and 18. They  are 7-1 su @ NO last 8, needing a win they come in and do as they have lately and not loose 2 in a row.


Much respect.

I definitely understand where you're coming from. I just believe that keeping the streak alive is going to propel the Heat to play harder than they were while building the streak.

I believe we are about to see the best the Heat have to offer.

One of two things happens tonight... The heat win by 30, or the heat win by 8-10. If they do come out looking to ensure they keep their franchise record going, they will completely dismantle and destroy the magic.

If they just want a win, and don't care as much about the streak as I am thinking they do, you're right. They win and don't cover. One of us is going to be right.

Definitely agree with you on the lakers though.. There's no way they come off a loss to the Thunder (people keep saying they got spanked.. I watched it live, they played HARD and were down 5 with little time left and the Thunder committing TWO Turnovers the ENTIRE game), and don't beat this team by at least 4-5. I'm thinking the final in the lakers game is about 97-89, Lakers.

Best of luck tonight man.
 
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Posted: #17
 Mia have gone into other places and hammered the opp, but at home I see them liking to get the win and be happy without worrying about the spread.
 
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Posted: #18
So tempting to pull the trigger on Bucks +9.5, Wizards -2.5, Grizzlies -7, Kings +11.5, Villanova, Syracuse and Michigan first halfs... Ugh.

Going to stick to my guns though and not make those plays. But those are definitely my heavy leans if I could!!! :)
 
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Posted: #19
Just saw the Cuse score.. Thank god I didn't.. This is exactly why I'm trying to play only my top 4-7 plays a day.
 
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Posted: #20
Can't believe Indiana blows a 10 point leading going into the 4th quarter after holding Boston to 58 points in the first 3 quarters.

Unreal. And the Laker's have my jaw on the floor. Pretty unbelievable stuff.
 
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Posted: #21
Not to mention Miami having a 15 point half time lead turn into a 3 point leading going into the 4th.
 
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Posted: #22
Seriously, one of the roughest day's I've had betting sports in a long time.

Pacers blow 10 point 4th quarter lead to lose the game.
Heat blow 15 point halftime lead and win the game by one.
Vanderbilt covering and looking like they'll cover the entire game up till about the 10 minute remaining mark.
St. Louis up by 4 at half and now getting blown out.

The one game I SHOULD have lost, I win with the Lakers going on a 20-0 run in the final 7 minutes of the game to cover.

What a day... Sorry for anyone who tailed.. Hoping for a much better day tomorrow!
 
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by trustandfall:

Seriously, one of the roughest day's I've had betting sports in a long time.

Pacers blow 10 point 4th quarter lead to lose the game.
Heat blow 15 point halftime lead and win the game by one.
Vanderbilt covering and looking like they'll cover the entire game up till about the 10 minute remaining mark.
St. Louis up by 4 at half and now getting blown out.

The one game I SHOULD have lost, I win with the Lakers going on a 20-0 run in the final 7 minutes of the game to cover.

What a day... Sorry for anyone who tailed.. Hoping for a much better day tomorrow!

 Get it back tonight buddy :)
 That Lakers game was sick. I could not believe they pulled that off lol. I was talking to KOBE in my mind telling him they needed to do what NO did in the 2nd. OMG lol. Sad thing I end up having some big cash on Mil on a couple parlays.
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