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Guys what are your thoughts on this game? My initial thought was Minny +1.5 and over 204.
Some Numbers:
These teams have played 3x already with Grizzlies going 2-1. The one loss was by 40pts but Gasol, Randolph and Conley all sat. They played a couple weeks later and Grizzlies won by 22 after winning first meeting of year by 4.
In those 3 games, Minny has been favored in all of them. Now Minny is at home again and underdog for first time. They have won 6 out of last 8 at home.
First game went over 199, hitting 200. Second game went under 197.5, hitting 196 but again memphis sitting stars. The 3rd game o/u was set at 200 and hit 163. Now we have both teams on 3 in 4 nights and we get largest number so far after last game was 41pts under this number. Also the 204 has already been bet down to 203.5. That is making me love the over even more.
After looking at those numbers I still liked Minny. What is causing me pause is the 3 in 4 nights. Both teams are on it for this game but Memphis comes in 9-3 in those situations with 1 of the losses being game against Minny where stars set out. They do have a 22pt win againt Minny in same spot thought 2 weeks later.
Minny is 2-4 in 3 in 4 situations on year, though both wins have come in last 2 situations.
I didn't count any 3 in 4 offensive outputs until mid November so guys could get legs under them. So that criteria took memphis first 2 games out. In 10 games for memphis and 6 games for Minny their average total offensive output combined is 205 per game FYI
After writing that my play is:
$200 Minny 0203 (bought hook)
Still looking into spread to see if I decide on making a play. Though may be best to lay off with information pulling me in 2 directions.
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