The model predicts Wizards win 2.5-7.1 Margin
Washington Wizards (-2.5)
This may seem like a fairly easy match up, but the score differential tells me otherwise. Especially after modeling the timberwolves past 3 games they truly are doing something remarkable & unique.. Likewise the New York Knicks & Orlando Magics. Back to this game though, I want to clarify the Wizards will actually win this game due to the volatility of the Timberwolves lately. We know the Wizards are a good home team, so i want to atack this game from that angle. I also want to know if the probablility of them winning matches their performance & makes sense with the 2.5 margin the model gives them.
To begin I noticed this is the first match up between these two teams this season. Both teams last 10-20 games was that it was quite similar Strenght of Schedule and both display averagely equal performance. Even though the wizards have won 3 of their last 11 games When i looked closely at their schedule it was a bit peculiar, but became clear.
To start off they've finished 4 series in their last 20 games. 3 of those 4 series had 2 games within the range of the Wizards last 20 games. Which could explain their 3-11 recent record. The losses we're seeing from the wizards are regressed losses or wins in their match ups. We're seeing almost playoff Win-Loss ratios. They're about to face the Minnesota Timberwolves whom they'll meet 2 games after today or 6 days from now on saturday.
We can clearly see the wizards are going through a patch of intense clusters of series in the range of 20 games. They're beginning and ending series at a high rate which results in the amounts of losses we see from them lately due the fact teams are regressing and adjusting towards them. In betting terms teams are revenging them now that they beat before & They're beating teams they lost to before.
There wasn't much to tell me The Wizards are going to lose seeing as the Timberwolves have been coming close to winning games, sometimes even with large leads but just not holding on to them. Their last game Vs Indiana Pacers the model predicted 5.7 Win margin for Indiana and they ended up winning by 7. So i'm fairly confident after analyzing both teams and with the models margin of 2.5-7.1 the Wizards are a safe -2.5 Bet. Teams tend to score a notch more points than what the model predicts so I like that aspect.
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