Posted:
#1
189.5 is the current total.
John Wall's return coupled with the Sixers steady dropoff in defensive play has inflated this total too much, imo.
Neither team has consistent flow to their offense, with PG play being vital to their success. Wall and Holiday match up well in speed and size and should contest each other, especially in the latter stages of the game. I can't envision these 2 going off scoring wise and having great assist games also. One or the other.
These are the 2 worst teams in the NBA in terms of points per shot. They both shoot a plethora of 16-23 feet out jumpers, both ranked in the top 3 for attempts and worst % from this area(The Wiz are, by the way, #1 in defending in this area).
Some additional disruption should be expected as both teams are already bottom 10 in ppg, off. eff. and eFG%, FT made and FT attempted.
Washington has picked up its D considerably since Wall's return and is ranked in the top 10 in ppg, def. eff., 3 pt.%, eFG% and PPS.
More importantly, however, I like the defensive matchups tonight. Washington is both fast and big on the interior, good enough for 8th in the NBA in rebounding. The Wiz are top 10 in opponents' FG % between 3-9 feet out. Nene has the quickness to stay with Thad Young and both Okafor and Nene can body up with Spencer Hawes. Lavoy Allen is decent, but he is not a good post up player.
A key is going to be how Webster plays Evan Turner. Webster is capable, but mentally checks out sometimes.
Nick Young is streaky and dumb and should be easily guardable by Beal.
I am going with the under 189.5. Good luck with your plays.
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