So I make my own lines and I was wondering what everyones opinion is regarding estimation and actual book line and what the wager would be. My final line is adjusted for at +/- 3 (home/road).
MEM/CHA- Est= 220.67 Line= 218.5
PHI/ORL- Est= 197.78 Line= 208.50
Just to show you a close game and a wide difference. So for the MEM/CHA game the difference between my estimation and the actual line is 2.17. Logic would say take the UNDER, but its typically a 50/50 choice. I've taken the OVER and UNDER and usually see it either way. I base my pick off of the +/- 3.
Then for the PHI/ORL game, my estimation has a 10.72 difference between to line so I would take the OVER.
Technically, if it doesn't meet my +/- 3 rule, I should just fade it but the close games are what intrigue me the most. My estimations are typically very close to actual lines. Of course with the exception that there are always a few games where there is a 10 point swing between my estimation and the actual line. Thoughts?
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Hello All,
So I make my own lines and I was wondering what everyones opinion is regarding estimation and actual book line and what the wager would be. My final line is adjusted for at +/- 3 (home/road).
MEM/CHA- Est= 220.67 Line= 218.5
PHI/ORL- Est= 197.78 Line= 208.50
Just to show you a close game and a wide difference. So for the MEM/CHA game the difference between my estimation and the actual line is 2.17. Logic would say take the UNDER, but its typically a 50/50 choice. I've taken the OVER and UNDER and usually see it either way. I base my pick off of the +/- 3.
Then for the PHI/ORL game, my estimation has a 10.72 difference between to line so I would take the OVER.
Technically, if it doesn't meet my +/- 3 rule, I should just fade it but the close games are what intrigue me the most. My estimations are typically very close to actual lines. Of course with the exception that there are always a few games where there is a 10 point swing between my estimation and the actual line. Thoughts?
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