First game of the series , 10.5 is a lot of chalk , the over/under could go either way depending on whether these teams just try outscore each other or they play defense,which they both can.
I know we all like to have a punt but really to put a lot on this game would be pure gambling not capping ,See how game 1 plays out to get a feel for the series.
Just my humble opinion
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
First game of the series , 10.5 is a lot of chalk , the over/under could go either way depending on whether these teams just try outscore each other or they play defense,which they both can.
I know we all like to have a punt but really to put a lot on this game would be pure gambling not capping ,See how game 1 plays out to get a feel for the series.
Will we see the houston we saw in the beginning of the series with clippers or will we see the houston team that played the last game and the 4th q of the last game 6 against the clippers? Ariza swishing every 3 he takes? James Harden in beast mode?
Also will we see the the Warriors team that played great defense and shot well against memphis to blow them out last 2 games?
These are crucial ?'s I ask myself. Thats why I can see either GS blowing out Houston or Houston keeping it close or possibly even stealing a game.
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I agree
Will we see the houston we saw in the beginning of the series with clippers or will we see the houston team that played the last game and the 4th q of the last game 6 against the clippers? Ariza swishing every 3 he takes? James Harden in beast mode?
Also will we see the the Warriors team that played great defense and shot well against memphis to blow them out last 2 games?
These are crucial ?'s I ask myself. Thats why I can see either GS blowing out Houston or Houston keeping it close or possibly even stealing a game.
There are a lot better spots than this game , but hey if you just want to gamble then true, bet them all and pay juice you need to win about 60% to break even.
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Quote Originally Posted by risktaker:
why bet any game ,
There are a lot better spots than this game , but hey if you just want to gamble then true, bet them all and pay juice you need to win about 60% to break even.
There are a lot better spots than this game , but hey if you just want to gamble then true, bet them all and pay juice you need to win about 60% to break even.
Better spots is only in theory. Your better spot is someone else's bad bet.
Once the wager is placed, it is the same gamble, regardless of what your trends, patterns, or stats tell you.
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Quote Originally Posted by Iainsc2:
There are a lot better spots than this game , but hey if you just want to gamble then true, bet them all and pay juice you need to win about 60% to break even.
Better spots is only in theory. Your better spot is someone else's bad bet.
Once the wager is placed, it is the same gamble, regardless of what your trends, patterns, or stats tell you.
Better spots is only in theory. Your better spot is someone else's bad bet.
Once the wager is placed, it is the same gamble, regardless of what your trends, patterns, or stats tell you.
Most definitely not there is gambling and then there is making an informed decision , if you just pick a side and bet it you are gambling, if you take all the information you have available and actually do research before making a bet you are making an informed decision
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Quote Originally Posted by itsonnow1:
Better spots is only in theory. Your better spot is someone else's bad bet.
Once the wager is placed, it is the same gamble, regardless of what your trends, patterns, or stats tell you.
Most definitely not there is gambling and then there is making an informed decision , if you just pick a side and bet it you are gambling, if you take all the information you have available and actually do research before making a bet you are making an informed decision
Most definitely not there is gambling and then there is making an informed decision , if you just pick a side and bet it you are gambling, if you take all the information you have available and actually do research before making a bet you are making an informed decision
You are making an informed gamble. No matter what information you use, you are still gambling.
I bet for a living and I am not saying that anything I do or say is any more credible than anyone elses. But, never will I suggest to someone when they ask what I do for a living that I am NOT 'gambling' for a living. The fact that there is no guarantee makes it a gamble by definition. The fact that anything can happen regardless of what information you use, making it gambling. You can find a way to gain a theoretical edge and find ways to maybe win more than you lose long term, but to ever suggest it's not gambling, because you believe that you have done the proper research before placing your wager is no different than gambler's fallacy.
The TRUE way to win 'gambling" is proper money management. Even more so than the picks.
If all it took was the information available for a person to change their "risk" from a "gamble" to a true "informed decision", then books would not win against the bettor long term. Which they do the majority. The odds of a person winning longer term are very low and the amount of people that do it are less than 5%. That is because each and every wager is a gamble. Period.
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Quote Originally Posted by Iainsc2:
Most definitely not there is gambling and then there is making an informed decision , if you just pick a side and bet it you are gambling, if you take all the information you have available and actually do research before making a bet you are making an informed decision
You are making an informed gamble. No matter what information you use, you are still gambling.
I bet for a living and I am not saying that anything I do or say is any more credible than anyone elses. But, never will I suggest to someone when they ask what I do for a living that I am NOT 'gambling' for a living. The fact that there is no guarantee makes it a gamble by definition. The fact that anything can happen regardless of what information you use, making it gambling. You can find a way to gain a theoretical edge and find ways to maybe win more than you lose long term, but to ever suggest it's not gambling, because you believe that you have done the proper research before placing your wager is no different than gambler's fallacy.
The TRUE way to win 'gambling" is proper money management. Even more so than the picks.
If all it took was the information available for a person to change their "risk" from a "gamble" to a true "informed decision", then books would not win against the bettor long term. Which they do the majority. The odds of a person winning longer term are very low and the amount of people that do it are less than 5%. That is because each and every wager is a gamble. Period.
You are making an informed gamble. No matter what information you use, you are still gambling.
I bet for a living and I am not saying that anything I do or say is any more credible than anyone elses. But, never will I suggest to someone when they ask what I do for a living that I am NOT 'gambling' for a living. The fact that there is no guarantee makes it a gamble by definition. The fact that anything can happen regardless of what information you use, making it gambling. You can find a way to gain a theoretical edge and find ways to maybe win more than you lose long term, but to ever suggest it's not gambling, because you believe that you have done the proper research before placing your wager is no different than gambler's fallacy.
The TRUE way to win 'gambling" is proper money management. Even more so than the picks.
If all it took was the information available for a person to change their "risk" from a "gamble" to a true "informed decision", then books would not win against the bettor long term. Which they do the majority. The odds of a person winning longer term are very low and the amount of people that do it are less than 5%. That is because each and every wager is a gamble. Period.
I have played online poker for a living for 7 years and there is no way what i do is gambling , yes there is a chance i can lose, i can have a losing day or week and have had losing months but over the course of a year i always show good profit, yes it is about bankroll management very correct and that is key.
Sports betting when done correctly is very similar to stock trading, sometimes teams are over or under valued and you need to find the spots where you are getting the best returns, i use betfair and i dont bet anything and leave it ,i trade constantly on the games taking small margines of profit and then looking for another spot when i feel that there is a mistake in price ,as betfair is not a book but people offering the prices you find those often , it is impossible to make money long term on sites like bet 365 the juice is way to high, you need to win over 63% of your bets to show any profit,which long term is impossible.
0
Quote Originally Posted by itsonnow1:
You are making an informed gamble. No matter what information you use, you are still gambling.
I bet for a living and I am not saying that anything I do or say is any more credible than anyone elses. But, never will I suggest to someone when they ask what I do for a living that I am NOT 'gambling' for a living. The fact that there is no guarantee makes it a gamble by definition. The fact that anything can happen regardless of what information you use, making it gambling. You can find a way to gain a theoretical edge and find ways to maybe win more than you lose long term, but to ever suggest it's not gambling, because you believe that you have done the proper research before placing your wager is no different than gambler's fallacy.
The TRUE way to win 'gambling" is proper money management. Even more so than the picks.
If all it took was the information available for a person to change their "risk" from a "gamble" to a true "informed decision", then books would not win against the bettor long term. Which they do the majority. The odds of a person winning longer term are very low and the amount of people that do it are less than 5%. That is because each and every wager is a gamble. Period.
I have played online poker for a living for 7 years and there is no way what i do is gambling , yes there is a chance i can lose, i can have a losing day or week and have had losing months but over the course of a year i always show good profit, yes it is about bankroll management very correct and that is key.
Sports betting when done correctly is very similar to stock trading, sometimes teams are over or under valued and you need to find the spots where you are getting the best returns, i use betfair and i dont bet anything and leave it ,i trade constantly on the games taking small margines of profit and then looking for another spot when i feel that there is a mistake in price ,as betfair is not a book but people offering the prices you find those often , it is impossible to make money long term on sites like bet 365 the juice is way to high, you need to win over 63% of your bets to show any profit,which long term is impossible.
And the odds on people winning on online poker are also around 5% , but i have done it for 7 years ,there is gambling involved in it but it is all mathematical , if i get my money in as 55% favorite on average, over the course of a year i will show the returns of that ,less the rake
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And the odds on people winning on online poker are also around 5% , but i have done it for 7 years ,there is gambling involved in it but it is all mathematical , if i get my money in as 55% favorite on average, over the course of a year i will show the returns of that ,less the rake
I have played online poker for a living for 7 years and there is no way what i do is gambling , yes there is a chance i can lose, i can have a losing day or week and have had losing months but over the course of a year i always show good profit, yes it is about bankroll management very correct and that is key.
Sports betting when done correctly is very similar to stock trading, sometimes teams are over or under valued and you need to find the spots where you are getting the best returns, i use betfair and i dont bet anything and leave it ,i trade constantly on the games taking small margines of profit and then looking for another spot when i feel that there is a mistake in price ,as betfair is not a book but people offering the prices you find those often , it is impossible to make money long term on sites like bet 365 the juice is way to high, you need to win over 63% of your bets to show any profit,which long term is impossible.
The fact that a person can find ways to gain a statistical edge with proper money management and finding theoretical edges does not mean it is not gambling.
You are suggesting that because you were successful at poker that it was not gambling? Do you know what gambling means? That you are risking money with a chance of losing. Does not have anything to do with how high the chance of winning or losing is. It is by definition a gamble. If you entered every single hand, with a 100% chance of winning? Then I would say, yes, you are not gambling. But it is gambling. Same with stock trading.
A person's ability to gain a probable statistical edge for whatever amount of time does not change the gambling and risk involved. There have been endless accounts of people being successful gambling for years, only to lose everything the years following. It happens all the time, because they fall into the world of gambler's fallacy and start forgetting that being able to gamble successfully, does not mean you are no longer gambling.
If you manage your money properly? Then your success should exceed those of the majority.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Iainsc2:
I have played online poker for a living for 7 years and there is no way what i do is gambling , yes there is a chance i can lose, i can have a losing day or week and have had losing months but over the course of a year i always show good profit, yes it is about bankroll management very correct and that is key.
Sports betting when done correctly is very similar to stock trading, sometimes teams are over or under valued and you need to find the spots where you are getting the best returns, i use betfair and i dont bet anything and leave it ,i trade constantly on the games taking small margines of profit and then looking for another spot when i feel that there is a mistake in price ,as betfair is not a book but people offering the prices you find those often , it is impossible to make money long term on sites like bet 365 the juice is way to high, you need to win over 63% of your bets to show any profit,which long term is impossible.
The fact that a person can find ways to gain a statistical edge with proper money management and finding theoretical edges does not mean it is not gambling.
You are suggesting that because you were successful at poker that it was not gambling? Do you know what gambling means? That you are risking money with a chance of losing. Does not have anything to do with how high the chance of winning or losing is. It is by definition a gamble. If you entered every single hand, with a 100% chance of winning? Then I would say, yes, you are not gambling. But it is gambling. Same with stock trading.
A person's ability to gain a probable statistical edge for whatever amount of time does not change the gambling and risk involved. There have been endless accounts of people being successful gambling for years, only to lose everything the years following. It happens all the time, because they fall into the world of gambler's fallacy and start forgetting that being able to gamble successfully, does not mean you are no longer gambling.
If you manage your money properly? Then your success should exceed those of the majority.
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