Posted:
#1
Currently having a bad stretch. Hopefully, things will around quickly.
Wizards +5 @ Mavericks
Factor: Riding the “progression”/Popular short home fave
I’m going back to the well and bet on the Wizards again for possibly the last time in this “ride set” (fourth time now). I don’t see them winning back to back games @DAL and @SA. If they would win a game in this two-game Texas stretch, it would be more likely to happen tomorrow. Dallas, with the exception of their last game, has not been playing good defense this season. The Wizards have the offensive firepower to match the Mavericks. The days of fading the Wizards on the road are long gone. This is a different team that is improving day by day. The public hasn’t yet caught up with how solid this Wizards team since they still keep fading them (70/30 split here once again backing the more popular Dallas team). I’m a Dallas fan and think that this season’s team is better than last year. But I’m not laying five points against this Washington team that is starting to find their groove. They should have won against @OKC last game but that Nene ejection changed the complexion of the game. As I’ve said in my previous write-up, Nene is integral to this team’s success. He will be playing in this game and with Dallas’ thin frontline, he and Gortat will feast inside like what they did against the Thunder. Doubly so I believe. I’m riding the train one last time since I believe after they win tomorrow, I already squeezed all the value out of this current Wizards stretch.
Pelicans -3.5 @ Lakers
Factor: Popular home dog
I’m not a fan of laying chalk on the road but this is just a huge mismatch. The Pelicans were 9.5 point favorites during their most recent game @NO in which they covered. It was a close game all throughout but the Pelicans managed to pull away late to cover the spread. Now the match up shifts to LA where the Lakers are looking to bounce back after their horrendous performance against the Wolves. Normally I would say take the road dog looking to redeem themselves after an embarrassing performance.
But the line tells me everything I need to know: the Pelicans, like the Wolves, opened as three-point favorites in this game. That means in the oddsmakers eyes, the Pelicans are on par strength-wise with the Wolves despite having the worse win-loss and ATS record so far. This is why you delve deeper than just looking the win-loss record when analyzing the games. Despite a below-.500 ATS and SU record, Vegas has been installing the Pelicans as either huge home favorites (-8 vs. CHA, -9 vs. PHX and -9.5 vs. LAL) or short road favorites (-4 @ORL, -2 @PHX, -3 @LAL) against sub-par teams signifying their high opinion of this team. They’re the “good bad” team this season in which you take them to feast on bad teams while not leaping over the good and great teams. Obviously, this expectation has not materialized so far. Despite the slow start, this team has a lot going for them. They’re playing decent defense already. They just need more cohesion at the offensive side of the ball and familiarity with each other as they play more will improve that.
I’m 0-3 betting the Pelicans but they’re just the much better team in this match-up. The Pelicans take this one and cover the short spread. The Lakers’ defensive woes won’t disappear overnight. The public still likes to back them because it’s a “revenge” spot and they’re the Lakers. They’re supposed to bounce back.
3.20u to win 3.04u each
NBA: 14-12 (+1.54 units)
Factor: Riding the “progression”/Popular short home fave
I’m going back to the well and bet on the Wizards again for possibly the last time in this “ride set” (fourth time now). I don’t see them winning back to back games @DAL and @SA. If they would win a game in this two-game Texas stretch, it would be more likely to happen tomorrow. Dallas, with the exception of their last game, has not been playing good defense this season. The Wizards have the offensive firepower to match the Mavericks. The days of fading the Wizards on the road are long gone. This is a different team that is improving day by day. The public hasn’t yet caught up with how solid this Wizards team since they still keep fading them (70/30 split here once again backing the more popular Dallas team). I’m a Dallas fan and think that this season’s team is better than last year. But I’m not laying five points against this Washington team that is starting to find their groove. They should have won against @OKC last game but that Nene ejection changed the complexion of the game. As I’ve said in my previous write-up, Nene is integral to this team’s success. He will be playing in this game and with Dallas’ thin frontline, he and Gortat will feast inside like what they did against the Thunder. Doubly so I believe. I’m riding the train one last time since I believe after they win tomorrow, I already squeezed all the value out of this current Wizards stretch.
Pelicans -3.5 @ Lakers
Factor: Popular home dog
I’m not a fan of laying chalk on the road but this is just a huge mismatch. The Pelicans were 9.5 point favorites during their most recent game @NO in which they covered. It was a close game all throughout but the Pelicans managed to pull away late to cover the spread. Now the match up shifts to LA where the Lakers are looking to bounce back after their horrendous performance against the Wolves. Normally I would say take the road dog looking to redeem themselves after an embarrassing performance.
But the line tells me everything I need to know: the Pelicans, like the Wolves, opened as three-point favorites in this game. That means in the oddsmakers eyes, the Pelicans are on par strength-wise with the Wolves despite having the worse win-loss and ATS record so far. This is why you delve deeper than just looking the win-loss record when analyzing the games. Despite a below-.500 ATS and SU record, Vegas has been installing the Pelicans as either huge home favorites (-8 vs. CHA, -9 vs. PHX and -9.5 vs. LAL) or short road favorites (-4 @ORL, -2 @PHX, -3 @LAL) against sub-par teams signifying their high opinion of this team. They’re the “good bad” team this season in which you take them to feast on bad teams while not leaping over the good and great teams. Obviously, this expectation has not materialized so far. Despite the slow start, this team has a lot going for them. They’re playing decent defense already. They just need more cohesion at the offensive side of the ball and familiarity with each other as they play more will improve that.
I’m 0-3 betting the Pelicans but they’re just the much better team in this match-up. The Pelicans take this one and cover the short spread. The Lakers’ defensive woes won’t disappear overnight. The public still likes to back them because it’s a “revenge” spot and they’re the Lakers. They’re supposed to bounce back.
3.20u to win 3.04u each
NBA: 14-12 (+1.54 units)
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