Would you take a 75% chance against the house at 25% (3:1 odds)

After reading countless articles, they all say the same thing; to beat the house, a good capper has to win 55%+ (or so) of the time to break even.

U only need 52 % to break even. I wish I can hit 55% for the rest of my life because most my plays are -105 juice

Haha, that's why I wrote (or so)

75% chance of hitting but you lay 150 to win 42, youre playing with worse odds. But if it works go ahead

75% chance of hitting and 25% chance of losing.

So you win 3 out of 4 times with 1 time of losing.

You lay 150 to win 42. 42 x 3 = 146. 1 x 150 = 150.

Overall end result-4

Thanks for the feed back dot51, and 42x3=126 which is an end result of -24 , here's my thought process though

Just wanted to add;

I'm not trying to promote anything, but this book is pretty badass as far as money management goes... there is a parlay system that only requires you to win 12% of your plays to profit... 1 out of 8 wins... and i personally use the 2-6 straight bet system for betting runs or no runs for 1st innings in baseball.... only takes about 5 mins to read the parlay section on page 46 but other systems are pretty interesting too! BOL


https://www.learnhowtobet.com/stuff/MMPSH3.pdf

for years i've always read that 55-60% is the magic number, that  cappers want to hit at long term , taking 50-50 props like ATS or O/U @ -110, in order to keep making good money on NBA.

( i'm from Australia , so i'm used to seeing 1.91 for our lines )
bear with me ,..this will be long winded.

i've tried many different betting approaches to NBA ,..smallball, longball, parlays , teasing ,  M/L parlays  but in the end, you need discipline and good money management,..and you have to know your end result...
what you expect to have won by the end of the month if you hit at a certain clip...
if you're just betting daily for action.....with no betting plan or strategy behind your bets...

..the NBA is like the crack - cocaine of the betting world.

there's just so many games ,.it's hard to stop betting at 1...
especially if an early game ends in a bad beat , and leaves you steaming.

everyone's discipline gets tested from time to time.

bookies beat punters 98% of the time because of our weakness at money management and steam control....and betting on shit we know we shouldn't...but we do...cause we think we're the smart punter....not like those other degenerates


I developed my own thoughts on how to beat "The House"

do what they don't want you to do.

this has always held true in casino's ,..and holds true betting with bookies ...

"always do what the house doesn't want you to do"

think about it,..casino's want you there longer ( and drunker ) cause the odds are stacked in their favour.....they'll win in the end,..the longer you're there...the more you bet...
and even if you do win short term...they know greed will corrupt you and you'll eventually lose,..and the meltdown that usually follows is where they go in for the kill.....and make their money.,

so i decided on a strategy that was based on going to the casino for 1 betting sequence, at whatever game i thought i had a good strategy for......Roulette , Blackjack , Sic Bo,.....not craps though.
...as soon as i  hit ,..profit made ,..i would leave....< 30 mins......worked superbly ....for a while....
( my strategies were always chase bet strategies, gradually increasing bets , until i won....)

my downfall ?.....i decided to up it to 2 winning bets, and 3 winning bets instead of 1....

you know what comes next....the house wins it all back ,...+ interest


this was many years ago,..before the internet gambling revolution

but the same rules apply to your online  bookmaker.

bet in a way that they hate , a way they don't want you to
they want as many bets from you as possible....that's their edge...
but if you pick 1 spot per day...no more no less...you keep your gambling appetite sated.....and you only sweat 1 result ...
you'd be surprised how much of that edge of theirs disappears.

i still sulk after a loss , and beam after a win,...but i know i'm gonna win in the long run...so i don't sulk for too long

my most lasting strategy , ( which keeps me hitting at a tick > 60% over the 6 months or so is  ( some may ridicule it , but it works for me)

i aim for a 3 leg All Up , over 3 days ..( Parlay in Aust. has a different meaning..what you guys call a "yankee" is what we call a parlay

i buy  6-8 pts on my H2H bets on the side i like if i'm playing a side
( i usually get 1.27 - 1.36 as my div. for sides )

i buy 10 pts on my totals , and the divs are usually 1.30 - 1.33


using $100 as my starting unit

here's an example of my last 2 betting sequences...see if it appeals.

24/2 ( which will be 23/2 to people in the US)

Bet 1 :   24/2  :  WAS @ PHI  :  $100   PHI -3.5 @ 1.30
                      (   94   -  117  )
PHI were -9.5 H favs...  i bought 6 pts on PHI ....bet hits +19 to spare )
.........................................100  = > 130

Bet 2  :  25/2  :  MIA  @  CHI   :  $130  < 202.0 @ 1.32 
                       (   89 -  93  )
spread was 192.0 , i bought 10 pts , < 202.0 @ 1.32
Luol Deng broke the 89-89 tie late in the 4th , but i could have maybe survived 1 OT , with 202.0 as my spread....CHI won in regulation.
bet hits with 19 pts to spare....
.........................................130  = > 172

Bet 3  :  26/2  :  DEN  @  POR  :  $172  POR Win @ 1.36
                       (  106  -  107  )
typical NBA bullshit. POR lead by 10 at HT , DEN creams them in the 3Q, POR miraculously force OT , and win by 1 in OT....
This is why i hate playing ATS and buying pts.
POR were - 6.5 H favs vs a B2B DEN , and just barely scraped in.
It's bets like these that make me realise i'm a lousy NBA capper,..but sometimes i still win.

.........................................172  = >  233            ( +133 profit )

so 3 days , 3 bets at pretty avg odds...but i got a 3 leg AllUp @ a div of 2.33 ...my $100 outlay lasted me 3 days...i got 3/3 and returned +133...had to sweat my ass off with PORT,..but it paid off.

that's better than 1 bet @ 1.91 for $100

if i didn't buy pts,...and played each game for $100 at the full line @ 1.91

i woulda gone   ( 2-1 ) ...pretty good 67%
$100               PHI -9.5        @ 1.91 ...return  191      win....+ 91
$100   MIA @ CHI < 192.0   @  1.91 .. return  191     win  ...+ 91
$100               POR - 6.5     @  1.91 ..  return   0      loss ... - 100

$ 300 outlay  got back  382  (+82  after 3 days )

my 3 LAU
$100 outlay  got back  233  (+ 133 after  3 days )

sure , if i went 3/3 @ 1.91 ,  i win + 273 , but you're dreaming if 3-0 happens to you all the time.....shit,..... 2-1 is hard enough.....

now on to my latest 3 day AllUp, ending today.
$100   BOS @ LAC :   BOS Win @ 1.30  ( 99 - 92 )  = >  $130
$130   GSW @ MIN :  > 203.5  @ 1.33  ( 123 - 126 ) = > $173
$173   ATL @ DEN :   > 192.5 @ 1.32   ( 90 - 100 ) = > loss = > -100

i lose too,..very close to getting a 228 return ( +128 )  at a div of 2.28, but fell 3 pts short...ATL had a couple of looks in the last 30 secs...but bricks were all they found.

in my last 10  attempts , at this 3 day betting sequence..i've gone 6-4.
my winning 3 leg AllUp  divs have ranged from 2.03 to 2.33

made +360 in about 5 weeks....taking 1 bet per day,..and skipping a week ( few days either side of the All Star break)
nothing special....i know..but i feel confident i can repeat the winning runs......it's amazing how many mooses you avoid this way..
but the losses still hurt

my 4 losses have been by 1pt, 1pt, 3 pts , 3 pts :
         a 6 pt CHI loss at POR         ( i had CHI + 5.5 )
        a 6pt BOS loss at H to LAL    ( i had BOS +5.5 )
        CHA win at ATL , ATL blew a 22 pt lead ( i had ATL Win )
        > 192.5   ATL @ DEN ,....finished on 190

when i lose,...i am still very very close...
it's a good sign that my bookie has had to rely on 4 close wins to stop me going 10-0   in the last 5 weeks
i have had quite a few 31, 45 , 15 , 19 , 19 , 20 , 14, 16, 19 pt wins on individual games ,but more importantly
i've had quite a few 3, 7, 5 , 1,  4, 1, 0 , 6 pt wins ...wins that should have been losses , but thanks to teasing , i've hit those

i am not a good gambler @ 1.91 on ATS or O/U's...
but i have found a niche by betting slow and steady and teasing around 6-8 pts. ,..and in a manner my bookies will eventually tire of..
1 bet per day ,........
i'll wear them out...before they beat me.

if i didn't buy pts,...and played each game for $100 at the full line @ 1.91

i woulda gone   ( 2-1 ) ...pretty good 67%
$100               PHI -9.5        @ 1.91 ...return  191      win....+ 91
$100   MIA @ CHI < 192.0   @  1.91 .. return  191     win  ...+ 91
$100               POR - 6.5     @  1.91 ..  return   0      loss ... - 100

$ 300 outlay  got back  382  (+82  after 3 days )

my 3 LAU
$100 outlay  got back  233  (+ 133 after  3 days )

sure , if i went 3/3 @ 1.91 ,  i win + 273 , but you're dreaming if 3-0 happens to you all the time.....shit,..... 2-1 is hard enough.....

now on to my latest 3 day AllUp, ending today.
$100   BOS @ LAC :   BOS Win @ 1.30  ( 99 - 92 )  = >  $130
$130   GSW @ MIN :  > 203.5  @ 1.33  ( 123 - 126 ) = > $173
$173   ATL @ DEN :   > 192.5 @ 1.32   ( 90 - 100 ) = > loss = > -100

i lose too,..very close to getting a 228 return ( +128 )  at a div of 2.28, but fell 3 pts short...ATL had a couple of looks in the last 30 secs...but bricks were all they found.

in my last 10  attempts , at this 3 day betting sequence..i've gone 6-4.
my winning 3 leg AllUp  divs have ranged from 2.03 to 2.33

made +360 in about 5 weeks....taking 1 bet per day,..and skipping a week ( few days either side of the All Star break)
nothing special....i know..but i feel confident i can repeat the winning runs......it's amazing how many mooses you avoid this way..
but the losses still hurt

my 4 losses have been by 1pt, 1pt, 3 pts , 3 pts :
         a 6 pt CHI loss at POR         ( i had CHI + 5.5 )
        a 6pt BOS loss at H to LAL    ( i had BOS +5.5 )
        CHA win at ATL , ATL blew a 22 pt lead ( i had ATL Win )
        > 192.5   ATL @ DEN ,....finished on 190

when i lose,...i am still very very close...
it's a good sign that my bookie has had to rely on 4 close wins to stop me going 10-0   in the last 5 weeks
i have had quite a few 31, 45 , 15 , 19 , 19 , 20 , 14, 16, 19 pt wins on individual games ,but more importantly
i've had quite a few 3, 7, 5 , 1,  4, 1, 0 , 6 pt wins ...wins that should have been losses , but thanks to teasing , i've hit those

i am not a good gambler @ 1.91 on ATS or O/U's...
but i have found a niche by betting slow and steady and teasing around 6-8 pts. ,..and in a manner my bookies will eventually tire of..
1 bet per day ,........
i'll wear them out...before they beat me.

jimmy 2 times......

i'm gonna go get the papers,..get the papers

that book was fantastic!!! a lot of great ideas that make a whole lot of sense...thanks for posting that...

Why not bet a round robin parlay with only the 2 team parlays?

^ I'll look into round robin's, I don't know how they work yet, and would rather not risk money on something i don't know

THANKS ALOT MAN!!!!

Malachiwhy & Sosana

No problem fellas... Just passing along knowledge someone else gave me last season... the thing about these systems are that unless you have a huge bank roll you're only gonna be making milk money every day... with the 2-6 straight bet system i was able to make a consistent $50 a day for over a 2 months straight betting dogs in baseball last season.. theses systems are just a good way to make a consistent little amount.... u still gotta find your own style of betting that works for your income. I've just recently, after 5 years of chasing money lost, figured out that for myself i should never bet more than 2 units a day. Somedays i'll split that 2 units into 10 plays and other days i'll let it ride on one game. The hardest thing for me is to skip a day when there's a small card... Thank god i found covers about 2 years ago. So much info out on the forums... I've learned more about sports reading threads over the last 2 years than i have watching ESPN my entire life... BOL gentlemen

$50 a day for 2 weeks pays out to $700. Which is how much I make working part-time lol.