Week 11 Monday, 11/17/2008 8:30 PM
CLEVELAND (3 - 6) at BUFFALO (5 - 4)
The Bills are still in playoff contention, and this contest will start a 3-game stretch against teams that have combined for just six wins in ’08. They’ll also have a couple of trend angles in their favor. First, Buffalo is 11-2 ATS vs. teams with a losing record under Dick Jauron. Second, they are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 November home games. The favorite has won and covered the last three games of this head-to-head series. In Buffalo, Quinn will face a defense that’s allowed only eight passing touchdowns in nine games. The Bills are 14-2 ATS after playing the Patriots. Play Against any road underdog that has failed to cover the spread in last two games. This means voting against the Browns, with this system 20-8 ATS, 71.4 percent and racking up earlier win against Denver when they lost to New England 41-7. The Browns' defense is a unit which has allowed an average of 496.5 yards in its last two games.
Play On - Favorites (BUFFALO) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival, in the second half of the season.
(67-33 over the last 10 seasons.) (67%, +30.7 units)
Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEVELAND) - after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games.
(33-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.7%, +22 units)
CLEVELAND is 14-36 ATS (-25.6 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992.
The average score was CLEVELAND 15.2, OPPONENT 25.2
BUFFALO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games when they outgain their opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was BUFFALO 25.5, OPPONENT 15.6
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BUFFALO 21.3, OPPONENT 14.5
BUFFALO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was BUFFALO 26.0, OPPONENT 17.3
BUFFALO is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
The average score was BUFFALO 23.5, OPPONENT 15.1
Jauron is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of BUFFALO.
The average score was BUFFALO 21.0, OPPONENT 14.5
Jauron is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season as the coach of BUFFALO.
The average score was BUFFALO 20.3, OPPONENT 13.5
Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Bills are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
My opinion in this game is to take:
BUFFALO -5
Hot Forum Topics
