🏴🏴 PROPS NATION 🏴🏴 --(35-29ytd 54%) 💥SOLID PLAYS - STARTING TO FEEL IT

Week 8 is upon us (halfway kinda), after 64 total plays resulting in a 54% winning percentage isn't bad

My goals is +60%, which is doable and feels like I'm starting to find my groove.

HARD LEANS - BOOK OPENS AT 830-9

MARVIN JONES OVER 53.5 REC YARDS

-Feels like Jags have an offensive identity now, JR running, RPO w/ Lawrence , playaction to jones

-Facing Sidney Jones, Good Matchup rating per PFF, MJ is a bad matchup all around for Sidney

-Hawks D has been burned all season by big plays, will have to commit stopping JR and will open up for Marvin

DEBO SAMUEL OVER 68.5 REC YARDS

-whopping 34.1% target share this season

-averaging 10.5 targets per game

-Bears D hasn't been good, good route running and YAC is why DS should have a big day

J CHASE OVER 77.5 REC YARDS

-Every week just waiting for this guy to have a bad game, only concern is blowout game

-Best Stats for this play - Facing Nichols CB who ranks amongst the worst in coverage snaps & yards per catch metrics

-Projections look really good, lets just hope the Jets can keep it close for a half

DK METCALF OVER 65.5 REC YARDS

-One of the best receivers in the league and the number is 65.5, auto-play for me

-He torched Lattimore last week for 84 yards (one-play), Geno has gotten better each week 

-Jags rank dead last in PASS DVOA, one of the worst in big plays given over 20+ yards

AJ BROWN OVER 75.5 REC YARDS

-Finally 100% healthy and is becoming one of the best WR in football

-Julio Jones is out and with Henry forcing 8 in the box he will have chances

-9 targets each of the last 2 weeks, Colts D that is 25th against fantasy wide receivers.

OTHER LEANS - REALLY LIKE THESE PLAYS AS WELL

RANKING THEM FROM TOP TO LEAST FAV

KUPP OVER 95.5 REC YARDS

-Its a lot of yards and facing a blowout at -14

-Great Matchup Adv - think he finishes around 120

D HARRIS OVER 71.5 RUSH YARDS

-"THE HOOD" really likes this guy and bet he gets 20+ carries this game (last 2 100+ games)

-LAC actually has one of the worst RUSH DVOA in the league

-Books havent caught up with me yet and has been sitting around this number

C PATTERSON OVER 45.5 RUSH YARDS

-Number is way short, projections look good

-Got 14 carries last game, has been sneaky good

JAMES ROBINSON OVER 72.5 RUSH YARDS - STARTING TO LIKE THIS THE MORE I DIVE INTO IT

-last four games, Robinson has had at least 15 carries, 73 rushing yards and one touchdown

-averaged 19.8 touches per game, maybe rush+rec would be way to go but I dont have option

ALLEN ROBINSON OVER 39.5 REC YARDS - SHOULD JUST BE AN AUTO PLAY

-YES I KNOW, Fields sucks, its a bad matchup vs talented CB

-But we are talking about 40 yards here, This guy can catch the ball and one good play wins this bet with a starting WR

MICHAEL PITTMAN OVER 62.5 REC YARDS

-He has been sneaky good over the entire season

Taylor running the ball well helps him get open on playaction

Good Luck Coach !!!  Great write ups. 

@DW7

Thanks Brother!

Got an favs you looking at or ones on this list?

Good luck to you as well

 Hey there coach. Hope all is well with you, as usual. I am scared today as i never like more than 1 or 2 plays at the most. Today i love the card. I made 5 plays that are in already. If you want to nw which ones they are..........Keenan Allen over 65 recievng yards................Derrick Henry over 105 rushing...Tua Tagover 230 passing yds...........Lookng at Dandre Swift both recieving and rushing......................The first 3 are locked in..waiting to decode on Deandre.Agree or disagree. I hope you hit them all my friend. May the prop gods be with you!!! Get the green my friend.

The more i look at Keenan Allen i am salavating. Something looks so easy here. The guy should tear them up today.Has to have over 7 receptions and should bust the yardage here.

@SelectivePlayer

 Hey buddy,

yea all those plays are looking good, I'm usually a BIG K. Allen backer but he has been letting me down lately.

Feels like a good spot to jump off, wish I could bet Rush+rec but I cant.

Would say that like all the plays only one I couldn't put money behind Tua, he just plain scares me but 230 is pretty low

@SelectivePlayer

You sent that when I was responding, yea the more I think about it seems low and should have some good CB matchups.

65 yards is def doable

GL buddy

as far as keenan allen goes, herbert seems to like mike williams a little more, which is hurting keenans stats

really like the marvin jones prop, that is a great line

only thing about DK is the QB throwing the ball today isnt russ.....but still probably worth a shot

@dubz4dummyz

Yea thats one reason I have stayed away

Last 4 games when looking has been 50, 75, 36, 50

But seems like he is due for a big game, but who knows could be #2 for rest of season

Question for u coach. Ive noticed u r always an over player for props. Do u ever notice unfavorable matchups and play any unders?

@Jayw23

 GREAT QUESTION - I HATE BETTING UNDERS, what is the fun in that honestly

Plus in Todays NFL, one batted ball, one missed tackle, penalties all over the place and boom you lose.

Sure there is TONS OF VALUE in under play and know people who bet it all the time.

When I bet unders I dont even want to watch the game, cause every pass or run I feel like its over.

Last time I bet an under I had some running back who never plays and it was 15 yards Rec yards.

Remember he ran a swing route (only pass to him the whole game) CB slipped and he ran it for like 70 yards lol

Last one ive played 

@dubz4dummyz

 Very true, but DK is a freak of nature and one of my favorite players in the league just based on abilities.

Last 2 games Wilson been hurt he went over last game, game before that he missed it by 3 yards where he fumbled down sideline or would of went over.

Hawks are figuring out how to get him the ball with Russ gone plus you could throw 10 jump balls a game 1 on 1 and he is getting 6-7 of them.

My point is that just based on value, the number should be around 85-90 yards if Russ is playing.

 last 5 games have been 96,58,98,65,107

just based on those stats no matter who is QB you bet it

LOCKEDIN PLAYS - LESSS GOOO

MARVIN JONES OVER 54.5 REC YARDS

AJ BROWN OVER 75.5 REC YARDS

DK METCALF OVER 65.5 REC YARDS

DEBO SAMUEL OVER 69.5 REC YARDS

J CHASE OVER 77.5 REC YARDS

C PATTERSON OVER 46.5 RUSH YARDS

ALLEN ROBINSON OVER 40.5 REC YARDS

**more to come.....

ADDED KYLE PITTS OVER REC 73.5 YARDS

**Ridley out for personal reasons 

might as well take a shit he will get hammered with targets 

NON PROP RELATED - doesn’t count against record just wanted to share 

Bengals -6 1st half 

1ST WIN OF THE DAY

DEBO SAMUEL OVER 68.5 REC YARDS 

2ND OF THE DAY

AJ(THE BEAST)BROWN OVER 75.5 REC YARDS 

ADDED

JERRY JEUDY OVER 40.5 REC YARDS

PROCEED W/ CAUTION HAD A BUNCH OF BAD BREAKS TODAY 

DALTON SCHULTZ OVER 38.5 REC YARDS

JUSTON JEFFERSON OVER 86.5 REC YARDS

SHIT DAY BUT HOPEFULLY TURN IT AROUND TONIGHT

2-5 thus far

AJ BROWN OVER 75.5 REC YARDS

DEBO SAMUEL OVER 69.5 REC YARDS

MARVIN JONES OVER 54.5 REC YARDS

J CHASE OVER 77.5 REC YARDS

C PATTERSON OVER 46.5 RUSH YARDS

ALLEN ROBINSON OVER 40.5 REC YARDS

DK METCALF OVER 65.5 REC YARDS

Boy no,on all those losses,y is that

@DelcoPIc

PLEASE...bad day for sure. Not worried about it 

But whats your record on the season champ? I see you picked one winner this weekend? lol

Lets see what your percentage is after 70+ bets

have a nice day

Today sucked for all of us buddy. Tonight sucked just as bad. We will come back fresh next week. dont worry. thats why they call it gambling!!!!!!!