Long time reader but I don’t post as much. FWIW, a rare and logical (to me at least) trend is in play this week. I found this years ago from the poster MrBator who I haven't seen in a while so the credit goes to him! As far as I can see, the trend is 18-3-2. Teams that win two games in a row by scoring 30+ points and giving up 10 or fewer points are likely to be inflated favorites and they regress to the "normal" their next game allowing them to be faded. The Bengals have won their last two games 31-7 and 37-3. I’m seeing around -3 for Cincy this week, which isn't as high as I wish it would be but Pitt is a play for me this week.
My next post will give the games I am citing.
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Long time reader but I don’t post as much. FWIW, a rare and logical (to me at least) trend is in play this week. I found this years ago from the poster MrBator who I haven't seen in a while so the credit goes to him! As far as I can see, the trend is 18-3-2. Teams that win two games in a row by scoring 30+ points and giving up 10 or fewer points are likely to be inflated favorites and they regress to the "normal" their next game allowing them to be faded. The Bengals have won their last two games 31-7 and 37-3. I’m seeing around -3 for Cincy this week, which isn't as high as I wish it would be but Pitt is a play for me this week.
The St. Louis Rams in 1999 beat the Falcons 35-7, then beat the Bengals 38-10, and then beat the 49ers 42-20.
The Jacksonville Jaguars in 1999 beat the Bengals 41-10, then beat the Falcons 30-7, and then beat the Ravens 6-3 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite).
The Kansas City Chiefs in 1999 beat the Ravens 35-8, then beat the Chargers 34-0, and then lost to the Colts in Indianapolis 25-17.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2000 beat the Bears 41-0, then beat the Lions 31-10, and then lost at home to the Jets 21-17.
The Jacksonville Jaguars in 2000 beat the Browns 48-0, then beat the Cardinals 44-10, and then lost 17-14 to the Bengals in Cincinnati.
The St. Louis Rams in 2001 beat the Dolphins 42-10, then beat the Lions 35-0, and then beat the Giants at home 15-14 (but didn't cover as a 14.5 point favorite).
The Kansas City Chiefs in 2002 beat the Cardinals 49-0, then beat the Rams 49-10, and then lost to the Broncos in Denver, 31-24.
The Green Bay Packers in 2003 beat the Raiders 41-7, then beat the Broncos 31-3, and then beat the Seahawks in a wild card playoff game at home in overtime 33-27 (but didn't cover as a 6.5 point favorite).
The Indianapolis Colts in 2004 beat the Bears 41-10, then beat the Lions 41-9, and then beat the Titans at home 51-24. COVER
The Seattle Seahawks in 2005 beat the Eagles 42-0, then beat the 49ers 41-3, and then beat the Titans in Tennessee 28-24 (but didn't cover as a 7-point favorite).
The Chicago Bears in 2006 beat the Seahawks 37-6, then beat the Bills 40-7, and then beat the Cardinals in Arizona 24-23 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite)
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The St. Louis Rams in 1999 beat the Falcons 35-7, then beat the Bengals 38-10, and then beat the 49ers 42-20.
The Jacksonville Jaguars in 1999 beat the Bengals 41-10, then beat the Falcons 30-7, and then beat the Ravens 6-3 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite).
The Kansas City Chiefs in 1999 beat the Ravens 35-8, then beat the Chargers 34-0, and then lost to the Colts in Indianapolis 25-17.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2000 beat the Bears 41-0, then beat the Lions 31-10, and then lost at home to the Jets 21-17.
The Jacksonville Jaguars in 2000 beat the Browns 48-0, then beat the Cardinals 44-10, and then lost 17-14 to the Bengals in Cincinnati.
The St. Louis Rams in 2001 beat the Dolphins 42-10, then beat the Lions 35-0, and then beat the Giants at home 15-14 (but didn't cover as a 14.5 point favorite).
The Kansas City Chiefs in 2002 beat the Cardinals 49-0, then beat the Rams 49-10, and then lost to the Broncos in Denver, 31-24.
The Green Bay Packers in 2003 beat the Raiders 41-7, then beat the Broncos 31-3, and then beat the Seahawks in a wild card playoff game at home in overtime 33-27 (but didn't cover as a 6.5 point favorite).
The Indianapolis Colts in 2004 beat the Bears 41-10, then beat the Lions 41-9, and then beat the Titans at home 51-24. COVER
The Seattle Seahawks in 2005 beat the Eagles 42-0, then beat the 49ers 41-3, and then beat the Titans in Tennessee 28-24 (but didn't cover as a 7-point favorite).
The Chicago Bears in 2006 beat the Seahawks 37-6, then beat the Bills 40-7, and then beat the Cardinals in Arizona 24-23 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite)
The Dallas Cowboys in 2007 beat the Bears 34-10, then beat the Rams 35-7, and then beat the Bills in Buffalo 25-24 (but didn't cover as an 11-point favorite).
The Baltimore Ravens in 2008 beat the Eagles 36-7, then beat the Bengals 34-3, and then beat the Redskins at home 24-10 (as a 6.5-point favorite).
The Minnesota Vikings in 2009 beat the Seahawks 35-9, then beat the Bears 36-10, and then lost to the Cardinals in Arizona 30-17 (as a 3-point favorite).
The Indianapolis Colts in 2009 beat the Titans 31-9, then beat the Rams 42-6, and then beat the 49ers at home 18-14 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite).
The Baltimore Ravens in 2009 beat the Lions 48-3, then beat the Bears 31-7, and then lost in Pittsburgh 23-20 (pushing as a 3-point underdog).
The New England Patriots in 2009 beat the Titans 59-0, then beat the Buccaneers 35-7, and then beat the Dolphins 27-17 (but didn't cover as an 11-point favorite).
The Green Bay Packers in 2009 beat the Seahawks 48-10, then beat the Cardinals 33-7, then returned to Arizona one week later for a wild card playoff game and lost 51-45 in overtime (as a 2.5-point favorite).
The Green Bay Packers in 2010 beat the Cowboys 45-7 then beat the Vikings 31-3. There was a bye week sandwiched between those games but their next game they lost to Atlanta 20-17. This was a push as Atlanta was a 3 point favorite.
The New England Patriots in 2010 beat the NY Jets 45-3 then beat the Bears 36-7. Their next game they beat the Aaron Rodgers less Packers 31-27 but didn't cover the 14 point line.
The San Diego Chargers in 2010 beat the Chiefs 31-0 then beat the 49ers 34-7. Their next game they lost SU as an 8 point favorite to the Bengals who had nothing to play for 34-20.
The New England Patriots in 2010 beat the Bills 34-3 then beat the Dolphins 38-7 to close out the season. Their next game was the divisional round of the playoffs where they lost SU as a 9 point favorite to the NY Jets 28-21.
The San Francisco 49ers in 2012 beat the Jets 34-0 then beat the Bills 45-3, and then lost at home to the Giants 26-3.
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The Dallas Cowboys in 2007 beat the Bears 34-10, then beat the Rams 35-7, and then beat the Bills in Buffalo 25-24 (but didn't cover as an 11-point favorite).
The Baltimore Ravens in 2008 beat the Eagles 36-7, then beat the Bengals 34-3, and then beat the Redskins at home 24-10 (as a 6.5-point favorite).
The Minnesota Vikings in 2009 beat the Seahawks 35-9, then beat the Bears 36-10, and then lost to the Cardinals in Arizona 30-17 (as a 3-point favorite).
The Indianapolis Colts in 2009 beat the Titans 31-9, then beat the Rams 42-6, and then beat the 49ers at home 18-14 (but didn't cover as a 13-point favorite).
The Baltimore Ravens in 2009 beat the Lions 48-3, then beat the Bears 31-7, and then lost in Pittsburgh 23-20 (pushing as a 3-point underdog).
The New England Patriots in 2009 beat the Titans 59-0, then beat the Buccaneers 35-7, and then beat the Dolphins 27-17 (but didn't cover as an 11-point favorite).
The Green Bay Packers in 2009 beat the Seahawks 48-10, then beat the Cardinals 33-7, then returned to Arizona one week later for a wild card playoff game and lost 51-45 in overtime (as a 2.5-point favorite).
The Green Bay Packers in 2010 beat the Cowboys 45-7 then beat the Vikings 31-3. There was a bye week sandwiched between those games but their next game they lost to Atlanta 20-17. This was a push as Atlanta was a 3 point favorite.
The New England Patriots in 2010 beat the NY Jets 45-3 then beat the Bears 36-7. Their next game they beat the Aaron Rodgers less Packers 31-27 but didn't cover the 14 point line.
The San Diego Chargers in 2010 beat the Chiefs 31-0 then beat the 49ers 34-7. Their next game they lost SU as an 8 point favorite to the Bengals who had nothing to play for 34-20.
The New England Patriots in 2010 beat the Bills 34-3 then beat the Dolphins 38-7 to close out the season. Their next game was the divisional round of the playoffs where they lost SU as a 9 point favorite to the NY Jets 28-21.
The San Francisco 49ers in 2012 beat the Jets 34-0 then beat the Bills 45-3, and then lost at home to the Giants 26-3.
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