2500 BMORE - 3

Quote Originally Posted by Rolexsports:

What’s happening my fellow covers family, been busy with life so I haven’t been here in a while. Had to take some time to post this play though. The Ravens have a 50.6 % chance to cover this spread according to one of the sites I pay monthly to read their data. When the line was @ minus - 2.5 the % was @ a 53.3% chance of covering. BMORE is also 18-6 ATS vs elite teams with a win % greater than 66.7% since 2020. BMORE is overall better on offense, where they score + 0.495 pts per play , as LAC scores + 0.369 pts per play. LAC is overall better on defense. BMORE allow 0.377 pts per play scored , where LAC only allow 0.238 pts scored per play. The thing about the difference between both of these teams though, is the SOS. BMORE is + 1.4 , where LAC is - 1.4. BMORE is ranked # 4 in SOS , where LAC rank only 27th. That’s where we will see the strength of schedule dictate and determine the outcome of this cover for BMORE. * Retread coaches factor: Coaches that coached in the league, left and came back are only 86 - 116 ATS @ home in the last 10 years. I pay right around 250 bucks a month to five different companies that collect data for professional and pro sports, but more than anything I watch all teams play via the NFL Sunday ticket. BMORE is a more physical team , with the better QB and better running game. Yes LAC’s defense is better but, that’s all relative based on SOS. Better record teams on MNF are only 25-43-2 ATS ( 36.6 % ) . There’s a lot more data I’ve pulled but, this one sticks out the most. BMORE / LAC similar games BMORE covers this spread 58.4 % of the time. I don’t have enough time to even get into the DVOA data, but it’s all over BMORE covering tonight. GL folks !!

Quote Originally Posted by Rolexsports:

What’s happening my fellow covers family, been busy with life so I haven’t been here in a while. Had to take some time to post this play though. The Ravens have a 50.6 % chance to cover this spread according to one of the sites I pay monthly to read their data. When the line was @ minus - 2.5 the % was @ a 53.3% chance of covering. BMORE is also 18-6 ATS vs elite teams with a win % greater than 66.7% since 2020. BMORE is overall better on offense, where they score + 0.495 pts per play , as LAC scores + 0.369 pts per play. LAC is overall better on defense. BMORE allow 0.377 pts per play scored , where LAC only allow 0.238 pts scored per play. The thing about the difference between both of these teams though, is the SOS. BMORE is + 1.4 , where LAC is - 1.4. BMORE is ranked # 4 in SOS , where LAC rank only 27th. That’s where we will see the strength of schedule dictate and determine the outcome of this cover for BMORE. * Retread coaches factor: Coaches that coached in the league, left and came back are only 86 - 116 ATS @ home in the last 10 years. I pay right around 250 bucks a month to five different companies that collect data for professional and pro sports, but more than anything I watch all teams play via the NFL Sunday ticket. BMORE is a more physical team , with the better QB and better running game. Yes LAC’s defense is better but, that’s all relative based on SOS. Better record teams on MNF are only 25-43-2 ATS ( 36.6 % ) . There’s a lot more data I’ve pulled but, this one sticks out the most. BMORE / LAC similar games BMORE covers this spread 58.4 % of the time. I don’t have enough time to even get into the DVOA data, but it’s all over BMORE covering tonight. GL folks !!