I am in the Westgate Super Contest for the second year in a row. I am also fairly decent at statistics. Many are misinformed about spread betting and the challenges. Even Suuma, whom I greatly admire for his great analysis, seems to have hit a horrible dry spell and disappeared for a while. That makes no sense.
In this contest, for example, you have to realize that 85 games is an insanely small sample size to properly detect a successful capper's 54-62% success. I think the only way to look at this contest is to play it for 10 straight years. If you are good at it, you will hit Top fifty 1 or 2 times. You might go 49% two years in a row, and then suddenly hit 63% and make some cash, showing a very good 54% avg rate of success, but if you just focus on year one and two you will think you are a loser. Not true. The bell curve will tell the story, but only after 10 years of playing this monster.
Hope this informs a lot of you who get discouraged, or dispels some unrealistic notions amongst those who think they can consistently be in the money. It is simply not happening. Look at CH Ballers fall from grace last year. Look at it over 10 years and then come back and talk with me (n=850). Then we have something!! Onward in reality!
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