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An observation about the Seattle game

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Posted: #1
Books open up a short line, the 'public' is supposedly hammering the panthers but the line is dropping. Pretty much everyone on here is talking up the Seahawks. What gives? 

Is covers the public? Or are 90% of people here really contrarian bettors? Or is just a coincidence?

Is it possible the books opened up a short line to make people over think? The reports all over social media about 70% of bets on the panthers are false, and they're luring you in to betting on a team that struggled mightily last week?

I have no concrete views, hence I am seeking answers/thoughts. I know this forum is divided into those who believe books play tricks and those who don't. As I say I'm just seeking thoughts from others as it just seems extremely unlikely to me that the public is hammering the panthers but everywhere on this forum people are hammering the hawks, to me this forum is the 'public'.

 
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Posted: #2
Don't 2nd guess yourself.  I think u might be on the right side.  


 
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Posted: #3
Not really. Most of the sharps in the covers college football forum were on Clemson +7 while the public was on Bama. Also, when the Seahawks played the Broncos in the SB almost all the sharp bettors on this site were on the seahawks +2.5 to +3 (I think) while the public was on Denver. The books cleaned house with that game, but most on covers won.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Not really. Most of the sharps in the covers college football forum were on Clemson +7 while the public was on Bama. Also, when the Seahawks played the Broncos in the SB almost all the sharp bettors on this site were on the seahawks +2.5 to +3 (I think) while the public was on Denver. The books cleaned house with that game, but most on covers won.

Obviously they aren't gonna lose every game.  
   Almost Everyone on here got KC and Minny right last week.  Actually if u say Suuma and a few others are sharp they actually took the more public Seattle on that game.  
   As for college most had Bama including the old time regulars.  


 
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Posted: #5
Seattle should NOT be playing in this game!!!   One unlucky kick, that's all it took to get them here. They are crap most of the time they play away.  I'm going to follow this pattern on the crappyhawks and go big on the panthers at home.  

Good luck with whatever team you pick.  Like I said before, I'm going BIG on Carolina.
 
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Posted: #6
Don't fool yourselves. Cam Newton is not an MVP candidate.

Brandon Weeden had a better passer rating than him this year.

Also looking terrible in the freezing cold is not an indicator of the next game.

Seahawks win outright.
 
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Posted: #7
Seahawks win this one and I think they will win comfortably.

Very bold prediction: Packers host Seahawks next week
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Pandalicious:

Don't fool yourselves. Cam Newton is not an MVP candidate.

Brandon Weeden had a better passer rating than him this year.

Also looking terrible in the freezing cold is not an indicator of the next game.

Seahawks win outright.

Brandon Weeden did not play 16 games, finishing with a record of 15-1. Cam is absolutely an MVP candidate. that being said, my money is still on the hawks. I can't say its a lock, more like a lean.
 
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Posted: #9
Playoffs: Teams in a revenge spot from the regular season are 58-36 ATS (62%).
 
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Posted: #10
More bets from the public are coming in on Panthers but the big larger bets coming in on Seahawks. So the book needs money on Panthers and lower the line to try and get it.

The public is well know for use info in the wrong way and using the wrong info to make a bet, that's called being a fan.

Many on covers use info far better and use much better info, that's called sports betting with a goal of finding an edge.

Covers will beat the public more often than not and yes I have tracked it in the past, but they won't beat the public 100% of the time.
 
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Posted: #11
You can argue that Cam has the best overall "rushing" rating of all QB's and that should be considered when judging MVP talks. He's a dual threat, the Panthers are the only team that run a QB power play.  But in the end the MVP will be the guy who leads his team to a superbowl win, yet to be determined.
 
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Posted: #12
This game may be look like GB lost to Vikings week 17 where GB beat Vikings in Minnesota .
 
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Posted: #13
Both defenses are nasty.  Olsen is an effective weapon, Seahawks have trouble covering TEs.  Wilson has the experience and I believe they are the team of destiny after the SB debacle.  23-17 Seattle.
 
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Posted: #14
When we see this betting construct it is an indicator that Las Vegas has chosen a side in this match up


The books  are perfectly content to see Carolina money flowing in, comfortable in the knowledge they will not be paying it out

Otherwise, they would be adjusting the line to balance  the money

Interestingly, I see the line moving to -2 at select books this morning (Westgate, CG Tech)




 
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Posted: #15
The line probably moved a little because Lynch had a full day of practise.





 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

The line probably moved a little because Lynch had a full day of practise.






 
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Posted: #17
Now it is down to -1, probably be a pick em at game time. 
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

The line probably moved a little because Lynch had a full day of practise.





He was practicing in full every day last week too.
 
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Posted: #19
Seattle is garbage they can't cover the tight end and Greg Olsen is one of the best. He will have a field day.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by forty9ersfan80:

Seattle is garbage they can't cover the tight end and Greg Olsen is one of the best. He will have a field day.

LOL Vernon Davis was such a stud against the Hawks.  NOT.  
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Seahawks win this one and I think they will win comfortably.

Very bold prediction: Packers host Seahawks next week

That is what media wants

 
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Posted: #22
I agree with OP.  Find it odd that reports have public all over the panthers but everyone I speak to seems to love the Hawks.  Haven't seen anyone really on the panthers.  Line moving as if the $ coming in on Seahawks.  I like Carolina and think they actually win comfortably at home.  That Vikings game definitely took alot out of the Hawks and Panthers will have RW running for his life all afternoon.  
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Playoffs: Teams in a revenge spot from the regular season are 58-36 ATS (62%).

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Playoffs: Teams in a revenge spot from the regular season are 58-36 ATS (62%).

2-1 last week

Houston Minny Cincy


 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Seahawks win this one and I think they will win comfortably.

Very bold prediction: Packers host Seahawks next week
Agree  
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