As we pass the halfway mark.

A lot of seasoned veterns are struggling thus far this year.

2019

shows us that the previous 5 years, the favorites have covered 51.8% AWAY and 51.2% HOME.

but this year AWAY is in line with 53% but HOME FAVS are 36%. Regression has been a constant

influence over time, so I personally will give more credence to HFs during the back nine. For 36% to get

back to 51% implies a lot of HF winners....................................gl

This is an error:

The query should be : 2019

shows HF: (48.3 %) and AF; (48.8%)

so far in season 2024 we have:

HF:  (47.3%) and AF: (63.8%)

Therefore the regression is fading the AFs going forward, cuz to get 63.8% back down

to near 48% will require a lot of AF losers..............just a thought...................gl

season=2024 and line<0 and H,A

Fading AF=HD

therefore our candidates for this regression are:

CAR +6.5

INDY +4

JAX +5

TB +6.5

NO +4

DAL +7.5

HOU +3.5

Injuries can certainly exclude some of these, this is just an exorcise in regression thinking and

I will use some of these in my teaser model.

@jowchoo

 Jow are you able to look up the numbers for totals of 40 or less between weeks 4-16 since 2014

total<=40 and season>2014 and 4

ATS: 155-155

OU: 156-166................Nothing

total<=40 and season>2014 and 4

Thanks. Ya was hoping to see books predicting low totals when they set it under 40 but not the case

[Quote: Originally Posted by jowchoo]Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo: Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz: @jowchoo    Jow are you able to look up the numbers for totals of 40 or less between weeks 4-16 since 2014   total<=40 and season>2014 and 4ATS: 155-155 OU: 156-166................Nothing   total<=40 and season>2014 and 4[/Quote

@ Jowchoo , Here's a very rare one but you can play around with it just to give you an idea of things also do AD,  total <= 40 and season > 2014 and week >3 and week<17 and HF and surface =grass and temperature<25

Also the ov/un and note the month and where there played as AD,HF  do to grass and teams

total <= 40 and season > 2014 and week >10 and week <20 and HF and surface =artificial and 50>temperature<75 and Dome and line>=-3  (0-6 ats)

@hoody

 thx pal. My best month historically has been dec and jan

looking forward to temperature variables and have noticed certain coaches

gameplan much better than their opponents during the winter.     ..................................gl

I don't know why it show's some of these teams having a dome in post #12 unless it went by surface , I know some places have a full roof and some an opening I believe the bills and NYJ are open