Atlanta's resume is not that great

Yes, the Falcons have put up some solid offensive numbers but lets look at their level of competition.  If this was the NCAA what game would you consider an impressive/signature win?  There are not many.  Yes, they beat GB by 1 at home and then hammered Seattle by 16 in their playoff win.  They also got the Raiders early in the season.

But, overall against teams that had more than 8 wins this year their record is only 5-3 (not terrible) and their +/- pts ration is a decent +36. 

Against teams with fewer than 8 wins they were 7-2 with a +124 ratio.

So against weak competition they have been burying teams, but against teams with more than 8 wins they are doing just a bit better than treading water. 

Atlanta's Wins vs teams with winning records:
Beat Oakland by 7
Beat Denver by 7
Beat Green Bay by 1
Beat Tampa by 15
Beat Seattle by 16

Atlanta's Loses vs teams with winning records:

Lost to Tampa by 7
Lost to Seattle by 2
Lost to KC by 1

Also in home games against teams with winning records they were 2-2 with those wins over seattle and green bay.  they lost to tb and kc at home.

Finally they gave up 24 points in the first half of the 1st green bay game and I suspect GB will continue to roll up and down the field and might score in the 40's this time around.

I heard one Atlanta based analyst say today he cant imagine the Falcons losing.  Really?  This is a team with loses to Tampa Bay, Philadelphia and San Diego this year.  They can be beat.

So, generally I believe Atlanta's high powered offense is overrated due to their inflated numbers vs garbage teams.

I like GB to cover the points and Win outright on the arm of AROD and a bend but not break defense.

Absolute garbage and I hope you lay your bankroll on such terrible logic. The Falcons were tied with the 49er's for the toughest schedule in the NFL this year, period.  

Here's the problem with info like this.

Atlantas offense is over-rated? Did I hear this correctly? You are going to talk about offenses yet you are backing the team who has injuries everywhere and an inconsistent running game? Are u ok? I'm being serious. U ok? An offense that ranks in the top ten in NFL history in offensive efficiency yet they are overrated? I can't wait to see your next post. 

There defense sucks if Green Bay can suit up enough healthy WR they can easily score with them. If it's close I will take the points and Mr. Rodgers

There defense sucks if Green Bay can suit up enough healthy WR they can easily score with them. If it's close I will take the points and Mr. Rodgers

Clutching at straws now... Seattle was in 2 of the last 3 Super Bowls, Atlanta romped them and should have won at Centurylink in the regular season

Beating up on tomato cans is a harbinger of post season success?  Ok then.   We shall see.  I just don't see many impressive wins on their schedule this year.  Rogers>Ryan.  GB's Defense>Atlanta's Defense.
In the last 7 games GB has knocked off 5 playoff teams.  Detroit, Seattle, Houston, NYG and Dallas.  Atlanta has played a bunch of jokes in their last 7 and lost to the 1 decent team they played.

GB 41
Atl 31

By the way that strength of schedule stat you reference is based on LAST YEARS records, and not how this years version of the teams they played performed.  Atlanta had a ton of garbage teams on their schedule.  Carolina SUCKS.  Tampa Bay Sucks. New Orleans Sucks. The Rams? The Cardinals? Please.  Their scheduled was NOT tough.  And....as far as the comment about beating seattle, GB destroyed seattle.  Seattle is a mess right now. 

I don't mean to nag but that scoreline is essentially double the spread-- truly triple the spread considering that GB are dogs in this one. Statistically speaking, your prediction is an outlier.

IF Packers win in Atlanta, it is more than likely they win by 3 or less.

For the record, including the playoffs Atlanta's opponents have a total of 137 wins in their 17 opponents for an average of 8.05 wins.  Green Bays 18 opponents have 153 wins for an average of 8.5 wins.  Green bay has had a tougher schedules especially in the last 2 months and will expose Atlanta as an over hyped offense.

Rodgers is NOT better than Ryan this year. Quit living in the past. Maybe his resume says he is better career wise but Ryan has had the better FULL SEASON. If Atlanta wins, that's the trap folks. That's the Houdini. The aura of Rodgers. GB defense better than Atlantas? Really? That's conclusive? U don't mention the Atlanta run game though? The single best weapon in this game in my opinion. Of course u don't mention this. And these high scores everywhere? Hey, it can go over the total but in my eyes, the easiest money may indeed be that under. We'll see. I coach football and common sense says if you have two very hot qbs you don't feed into their groove, you keep the ball out of their hands or at least try to. Why would Atlanta not want to run the ball? If they did it against Seattle, they can't run against Green Bay? Also, is Atlanta gonna be dumb like dallas and continually let rodgers escape the pocket with no spy? Dan Quinn, former Seattle d coordinator who hasn't lost to Rodgers before. The Dan Quinn who put the handcuffs on Russ, a mobile qb last week? Beasley is no joke and his motor is 5th gear for 60 minutes. The 5th gear type that hurricane von showed last year in that super bowl.  Falcons secondary isnt as bad as Green Bay's 31st against the pass rank but we know it's not good. I wonder what Quinn does to combat that....? Maybe a passrush on the ends? People need to remove the fog off their glasses and look at these teams and the strategies that both coaches SHOULD implement in this game. Quit telling me the same recycled garbage the media is telling you. you gonna talk about the flu now?

desertspade, what is your point? 

My point is that outcome is extremely unrealistic. 

Oh you coach football?  I didn't know that! Well then.  We should all go ahead and just listen to your wisdom about how this will play out.  And yes, Aaron Rodgers is better today than Matt Ryan.  Is historically better than Matt Ryan and will be better than Matt Ryan on Sunday.  Again, Running up the score on the Rams doesn't impress me.  Going into Dallas and winning a playoff game.  That impresses me.  Owning the supposedly amazing NYG defense. That impresses me.  Beating 5 playoff teams in 7 weeks.  That impresses me.  Dating Olivia Munn.  That impresses me.

We disagree.  This will be settled on Sunday. 

Fair enough, good luck to you Scoop

And good luck to you! Anytime someone says..."you get Aaron Rodgers and you can start with 4 points...." take it.

Speaking of that, GB has been a dog 5 times this year and is 4-1 against the spread in those games.  They are 3-2 outright in those games including a senseless loss to Atlanta and a weird loss at Washington. Rodgers AND points?  I'll take it.

scoop, so for 10 months you created an account, no posts, no evidence of existence and  all of the sudden NOW wanted to start posting your 7 posts about the NFC championship game? Your argument is biased. There are two sides to the coin and until you want to address those two sides, u can continue to be a sarcastic punk; it doesn't carry any weight with me. If you firmly believe that the answer to beating two qbs who have thrown over 500 combined passes with only one interception between them is to just keep throwing and throwing, then you may need to sit down and take a breath. I can't help ya though. The two best qbs in the league and BOTH coaches are just gonna line up 60 times a piece and throw the rock around? Stellar. So let's say that happens. Answer me this. If you are a defensive coordinator, are u more worried with a team who you know will throw 70% of the game or are u more worried about a team that is multi functional and can beat you with BOTH the run and the pass? Do I think this question has come up in both meeting rooms for these teams? Have the packers played anybody multifunctional like that recently? We're the Giants multi functional? What about the lions? The cowboys? Maybe the cowboys but any smart coach would ask why you are throwing an interception on 2nd and 2 with zeke in the backfield behind the best o line. Dallas just beat themselves in the late second half. What about Houston? How's Brock been this year? Good running game late? Big difference between those "playoff teams" and the best offense in football buddy. Keep focusing on your side of the coin though......take a few more personal pokes too.

Anyone can seem "multi dimensional" playing a bunch of garbage teams like Atlanta played.  Especially recently.  Look at their scheduled.  You think Ty Montgomery couldn't have piled up crazy yardage numbers playing the worthless teams the Falcons finished their season with?  You act as though GB has no weapons.  What are the falcons gonna do with Jared Cook?  Randal Cobb?  Montgomery? If Adams, Nelson and Allison are out, Jeff Janis will go 5 for 100. Rodgers didn't even use a huge part of his toolbag against Dallas.  His field vision allows him to jog at about 1/2 speed for 1st downs when he needs to.  Plus, GB has playmakers on defense that are not nearly discussed enough.  Mathews and Peppers clearly need to get to Ryan.  Mike Daniels is a force.  Micah Hyde and Clinton Dix have been solid.  I think Ryan hits the deck more than Rodgers in this one.

Now what, going to be all about Brady?  This is a betting forum, not a romance novel.

brady is going to prepare as alwaysbelicheck will get the his personal ready i am sure. as will falcons, but green bay was not a gimme.

patriots are going to double and triple team Jones. and atlanta beat greenbay this season without big numbers from Julio. its gonna be one of those deals everyone and their sister will be on New England the line wont move and I gonna be where everyone isnt. with the money.....

Ouch