Ballinonabudget's Week 7 Write-ups/Thoughts - I'll take my Metternberger well done.

Seattle vs SF

Seattle is obviously still by far the better overall team in this matchup even with their current record sitting at 2-4. In terms of personnel, they match up very well to be able to get a defeat over their division rival 49ers who are essentially on their way to rebuild mode; however though, Seattle has been struggling to cover let alone win their recent games in some tough scheduling spots the past few weeks. 

They actually were in a very good spot against Detroit a cpl weeks ago in a b2b home game on primetime yet almost lost the game with Detroit being extremely desperate for a win in that one and managing to almost get the outright dub. In that game though Detroit did have DeAndre Levy back at least for a little bit as well as Haloti Ngata in whom they have missed the last cpl weeks. After that tough game on a Monday night for Seattle, they then had to travel on a short week to play a TOUGH TOUGH Cincy team and could have gotten the win, but lost it in the 4th quarter as it seems the short week and tough game against Detroit may have wore them out. 

Then, after the 2nd tough game in a row against Cincy, Seattle came back home, but had to play ANOTHER very tough team in the undefeated Carolina Panthers who were coming in with PLAYOFF REVENGE against Seattle and were off their bye week. Seattle also had this division lookahead coming up on TNF in SF which I'm sure didn't necessarily help matters. 

Now though, after another tough defensive loss to Carolina that came down to the 4th quarter, Seattle has to travel on a short week (a very tough situation) to SF who is coming off a big win and in a b2b home game now. 

Considering all of the above, clearly, SF is in the MUCH BETTER spot here so as much as I want to bet Seattle purely for the reason that I believe they are BY FAR the better and more talented team, I don't know if I can lock it in especially considering that even in the spot they are favored by almost a touchdown.

I would honestly not necessarily want to bet against Seattle considering I still do believe that they are an elite team now that they have Kam back and have just been in some bad situations most recently, but do not want to force myself in to a bet on them either in ANOTHER bad situation while vegas is still taxing them as if they are an elite team at -6 or so on the road on a short week. Now that SF is coming off a momentum building win (even though it was over a what looks to be very bad baltimore team that doesn't compare to Seattle), SF should be coming in to this one with some swagger playing a b2b home game against a HUGE DIVISION RIVAL and sitting in a good spot coming into this one. As a result, I have a gut feeling SF comes to play in what amounts to a HUGE GAME for them and feel it may end up possibly being closer than people think even with the mismatch personnel-wise well in the Seahawks favor since the Seahawks obviously have OL issues and aren't the type of team to necessarily put up a ton of points either. As a result, I will most likely be laying off this one because even with the good spot and momentum I don't necessarily like the matchups for SF, but I also don't want to take the Seahawks at this # when they are in a bad situation and with most bets seeming to be coming in on them sending the spread up to where it's at now.

Lean: NO PLAY

Buffalo vs Jacksonville

Jacksonville is coming into this one off another loss now with 4 straight losses in a row after the win over Miami. The last 2 weeks they have lost to the TB Bucs (but on a b2b road game) and last week at home to Brian Hoyer and the Houston Texans. Jacksonville definitely has some young up-and-coming talent on their team (especially on offense), but that defense has now allowed 38 and 31 points in b2b weeks to TB & Houston (not the most prolific scoring teams). This is a team however that should be more used to traveling to London though as I am pretty sure it is their 3rd straight year with a game being played in London so that may especially help in terms of the taxation of the travel on the players and perhaps may also help in terms of the crowd.

On the other side, we have a Buffalo Bills team that looked to be well improved with their new head coach the way they opened up the season, but now are coming in losing 2 of their last 3 with the win only being by 1 point over the Titans. We also had some players come out this week questioning the defensive scheme after getting 0 sacks on Andy Dalton last week. This team has been struggling big time with injuries with Percy Harvin out of this one, Sammy Watkins very questionable and probably out, Karlos Williams out, Lesean McCoy not 100%, Tyrod Taylor possibly out, and Marquise Goodwin on IR. It looks to be that their starting WRs will be Robert Woods & Chris Hogan. That game last week against the Bengals was a very tough one since the Bengals are a Super Bowl contender to me, but I just have not been that impressed by this Bills squad so far this season even with all of the talent they have on defense. 

With as many injuries that the Bills have and a couple cluster injuries at WR & RB for them, I do not want any part of them in this one especially when they are favored by close to 6 points as of now. It seems that the public seems to hold Rex Ryan in high regards and thus, even with Buffalo coming in off a loss, they still seem to be overvalued. On the other side, I actually feel the Jaguars are a bit better than their 1-4 record shows (not that much better but still a bit better) and as I had written earlier, I think the Jags have a lot of young talent they are starting to build around and on defense it was key getting their MLB back in Paul Posluzny. As a result of that I do lean slightly towards the Jags + the points, but with TJ Yeldon possibly out again and both Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson a bit banged up as well as the fact that the Jags are still not a "quality" team and don't have a great OL either, I don't necessarily know that I want to make a play on them in this one either. Most likely another pass.

Lean: NO PLAY (slight lean to Jags as a result of Bills cluster injuries & what feels like a bit of a high spread due to public's affinity to Rex Ryan, but I tend to try to avoid betting on generally bad overall teams which the Jags probably fall in that category)

Tampa Bay vs. Washington

Washington coming into this one off 2 straight losses. A demolishing by the Jets last week and an OT loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta the week before. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay comes in off a bye with a win before that over the Jags. Tampa Bay with a possible lookahead next week to a division game in Atlanta Falcons. Washington with a bye next week.

Washington seems to play much better ball at home with a close loss to Miami game 1, then a win over St. Louis at home, and another home win over division rival Philly at home in their 3rd and only other home game. They come into this one probably a little undervalued since they have lost 2 in a row and were destroyed by the Jets last week, but in fact, they showed some fight in almost beating the undefeated Falcons in Atlanta after a tough division win over Philly and taking them to OT and last week were just in a TERRIBLE spot on a b2b road game after the OT with A TON of injuries and against a VERY GOOD Jets team off their bye week. 

TB is still not such a good team and though I bet them against the Jags last game, the key to that one was TB was in a b2b home game with a bye coming up and the Jags were playing their 3rd straight road game and missing their MLB and still Tampa Bay allowed 31 points and only won by a touchdown even with them scoring a defensive td. 

This one seems again to me like just not a great game to have either side in and although I would want to consider the Redskins due to them probably being undervalued & with a bye week coming up + I think they are the more talented team especially in the trenches, but I don't know that I want to bet on them considering all of their injuries (Trent Wiliams, Kory Lich.., Deangelo Hall, Chris Culliver, Desean Jackson, Jordan Reed, etc.) especially against a team off of their bye week even if it is the Tampa Bay Bucs. With the big problems in the secondary for Washington, TB may be able to take advantage of them with a cpl very good WRs in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and thus, that leaves me again with a potential PASS. 

Lean: NO PLAY

Minnesota vs Detroit

Both teams coming into this 2nd division matchup off wins with Detroit beating the Bears for their 1st win in a shootout of a game in OT and Minny winning a close low-scoring affair over the Chiefs by 6 coming off of their bye week.

Minny with another division game on tap in what will be a b2b road game in Chicago while Detroit will have to travel to London after this one to play the Chiefs.

Detroit is a team that was in some very tough scheduling spots to start the year and last week was finally in their 1st good scheduling spot of the season playing a b2b home game for the 1st time all year against the Bears who were coming in with momentum off 2 straight wins, but were on the road for a b2b game. Detroit has a bunch of issues on defense and the key injuries to Tyrun Walker, Haloti Ngata, and DeAndre Levy have me careful about considering any wagers on them, but considering the spot, I am leaning that direction as they are playing now a 3RD STRAIGHT HOME GAME and finally coming in to this one with some momentum off a HUGE WIN over the division rival Bears and now are coming into this game against Minny with DIVISION IN-SEASON REVENGE after losing game 2 of the season in Minnesota 26-16. Detroit is 1-5 overall, but only 1-1 in the division after beating the Bears last week and I feel they come out hard in this one ready to try to get the W - especially knowing that they will have to travel to London next week.

On the other side, Minnesota has not impressed me even though I was very high on them coming into the year and again last week did not impress much playing a Chiefs team who was limping into that game last week after losing Jamaal Charles and with the Vikings coming in off of their bye week. Teddy Bridgewater has seemed to have surprisingly taken a step back this season when most people expected him to get better and didn't look any better last week off the bye completing only 17/31 with 2 interceptions. A few of the weapons on that team have not impressed me either with Kyle Rudolph not stepping up much either (only 2 catches for 9 yards last week on 5 targets), Charles Johnson not playing last week and essentially losing his starting job, and Mike Wallace catching only 2 for 23 last week on 9 targets. Even AP struggled last week running 26 times for only 60 yards. The secondary does have a lot of young talent on this team though and that does have me a bit worried about taking them and I also am worried that AP could definitely break one with those issues up the middle of this defense. 

I do lean Detroit due to the great spot they seem to find themselves in for this one and with the in-season revenge against a team that seems to be underperforming while Detroit I'm sure still has very low value not covering last week as they found themselves as favorites, but due to their issues on defense personnel-wise even if I do take the Lions it won't be a big play.

Lean: Detroit (mostly due to spot) 

-> I leaned Detroit last week due to the spot in a b2b home game vs Bears in a b2b road game as well, but layed off due to what felt like a bad # having to take the winless Lions as favorites with the undeniable issues on D for Detroit + Chicago was getting the WRs back. Anyways, looks like that was a good idea as Detroit was lucky to escape with that win with that retarded TD call for Golden Tate's non-catch.. This one feels similar with Detroit again in a good spot in a 3rd straight home game, but still worrying me with the DL & MLB injuries for them which could be big against a back as talented as AP.

New Orleans vs Indianapolis Colts

Colts come in to this one off the SNF backdoor cover but SU loss to the Patriots last weekend while the Saints come in with extra time to rest and prepare off a HUGE DIVISION WIN on TNF over the previously undefeated Atlanta Falcons. No real lookahead for Saints while Colts play MNF next week in Carolina though as it is an out of division game and on Monday I don't see it as much of a true look ahead.

I took the Colts last weekend for my GOY and luckily got a back door cover against the Pats due to the over-inflated spread in that one though to me, the Colts should have easily covered and even possibly been in it to win it if not for the joke call on the onside kick that they somehow gave to NE and the worst play of all plays on that 4th down nonsense Pagano called. Anyways, the key reason I was on the Colts in that one was the result of the inflated spread at DD at home on primetime and the fact that the colts had extra time going into that one coming off of TNF. Now though, the roles are switched a bit with the Saints having the extra time to prepare in this one, but the Colts still being in a pretty decent spot as they are playing a b2b home game and we all know by now that Luck is WAY better at home than on the road.

Indy has had some cluster injury problems in the secondary at CB, but last week finally had a healthy Vontae, Toler, and Darius Butler back, but against the Pats they got even thinner with now Safety Mike Adams and backup Safety Clayton Geathers banged up along with Jerrell Freeman also still banged up. The defense besides Vontae is just not that great and we obviously know the OL isn't great either making this Indy team just not a top contender overall. The Saints aren't so great themselves with a struggling defense, but they did step up last week only allowing 21 to Atlanta and have been getting healthier with a few key returns in Jairus Byrd and Keenan Lewis. Plus, the young guys have been seeming to be playing better.

Neither team in this one is much better than the other to me and thus, I find myself leaning slightly to the Saints coming off the BIG momentum win with extra time to rest and prepare for this one + the points though again not a huge lean bc the Colts are in a b2b home game, Luck plays better at home, and the Saints also seem to pay better at home as well. I do think though that Indy with Luck is always a bit overvalued (unless they are playing the Pats that is) and that the Saints are still probably a bit undervalued considering their very slow start to the season and the only recent return of 2 of their key defensive starters. I also like that the Saints have 2 main WRs now in Snead & Cooks and Indy only has 1 shutdown corner in Vontae so one of them could be able to take advantage of some matchups. I also think we could see CJ Spiller finally have another good game possibly as he has I'm sure been getting healthier and Sean Payton comes into this one with a few extra days to game plan him some plays.

Slight Lean: Saints

Pittsburgh vs Kansas City

Kansas City has a slight look ahead to the game in London next week, but sitting at 1-5 I don't know how they can really "look ahead." Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is coming off a HUGE & VERY IMPRESSIVE PUBLIC PERCEPTION WIN over the Arizona Cardinals who basically threw away a game they should have won with a huge yardage discrepancy especially if you remove that last play to Martavis Bryant where all they needed was the 1st down and Carson threw a pic in the endzone where the Cardinals could have taken the lead. Pittsburgh also has a HUGE POTENTIAL LOOK AHEAD to a BIG division game at home agains the undefeated Cincinatti Bengals next week.

With Pittsburgh coming off the huge win over a public team in the cardinals, sitting at a pretty looking 4-2, and traveling on the road to a 1-5 KC team that I'm sure the public has thrown the towel in on + with the big division look ahead for Pitt, I am easily leaning to KC in this one situationally.

To me, Pitt probably comes in a bit overvalued off 2 straight wins including a last second one over SD in SD while KC comes in most likely undervalued after losing 5 straight to sit at 1-5 currently including last week's loss to Minny but they proved to me that they at least did not give up necessarily considering they only lost by 6 on the road against a team off their bye and picked up Bridgewater twice while holding AP to only 60 yards on over 20 carries. 

I think the KC defense should have gotten a bit better now with Sean Smith back in the fold and Marcus Peters making a case for DROY and they showed something last week holding Minny to 16 while Pitt has looked better than expected on D, but still seems to me personnel-wise to be a bit short in the secondary and though they held Arizona to only 13 last week they allowed a ton of yards. Lean to KC, but need to keep updated on the status of Big Ben & Jeremy Maclin especially as he is by far the most talented WR on the Chiefs. Also, Steelers may have Shazier back which I don't love in considering KC. If Big Ben is in and/or Maclin out I will be laying off this one most likely but if Maclin in and Landry Jones starting I will probably be on the Chiefs as I think Landry will be a bit overrated by the majority of people as well if they just look at his stats from last week which to me are schewed due to the 70+ catch and run by Martavis.

Lean: KC (if big ben out & maclin in)

Houston vs Miami

Houston on a b2b road game after playing in Jacksonville last week with a division home game against Tennessee on tap next week. Miami at home off the HUGE win over the Titans after the coaching change, but with a HUGE look ahead next week to a TNF in New England.

Just the short paragraph above has me leaning to a PASS on this game since both teams seem to be in bad spots with a b2b road game for Houston with a possible division look ahead and a BIG division look ahead to a TNF game in Foxborough for the Dolphins and both teams off wins. Also, I am from Miami and a Dolphin fan so I don't love betting on or against my home team. 

I do think Miami is the more talented team and match up decently with the Texans considering we only have 1 shutdown corner in Grimes so have trouble with teams deep at WR, but the Texans only have 1 WR stud in Deandre. Also Texans secondary has been underperforming badly this season and lost CB Kareem Jackson last week as well. They also may not have Clowney, backup LB Benardrick McKinney, & Cecil Shorts.

Slight Lean: Dolphins (but most likely a pass especially with the big look ahead)

Jets vs Patriots

Jets coming off a huge win over a very banged up Redskins squad and NE coming off a SU win and backdoor cover by the Colts on SNF. NE still rated as the #1 team in the NFL going into this one and I'm sure will continue to attract a ton of public money.

NE with the division TNF game ahead against the Dolphins next week, but as this one is a division game as well against the 4-1 Jets it's not so much of a look ahead, but is still a slight factor to consider. 

To me, the Patriots are still well overvalued as they are not close to as talented on paper as they were in the Super Bowl run last year yet most are looking at them as essentially unstoppable and I do not feel that is the case as their defense can still be exploited and the offense has limited talent at WR with Edelman leading the way but missing Lafell still and only Amendola & Keshawn Martin besides that.

On the other side, I feel the Jets are still undervalued as they have arguably the top 1 or 2 defense in the entire league and as we have heard many times "defense wins games/championships" and I feel that is KEY in this matchup between division rivals here. The way to beat Tom Brady as we have seen over the years is to be able to put pressure on him and make him uncomfortable in the pocket with a talented defensive pass rush and to me, the Jets have the ingredients to make that happen in this one with 1 of the most talented DLines in the league now with Sheldon Richardson back with a game under his belt. On top of that, the Jets have a VERY DEEP secondary at CB and with Revis shutting down Edelman the Pats won't have much receiving options to rack up the scores on the Jets d besides Gronk who also has a bit of a tough matchup against a good secondary.

Pats are also missing the LT and the backup LT went down last week as well so he is not 100% even if he plays. They are also missing another OL that was injured in the beginning of the year, so Jets I feel will be able to make Brady uncomfortable. 

Ivory has been running like a mad man and B Marsh and Decker have both been playing well too, so I think the Jets offense also may be able to have a bit of success against a Pats D that lost a lot of pieces from last year - 1 of which being Revis who now goes up against his old squad I'm sure with plenty tips to be told to his talented new coach in Todd Bowles.

With an underrated vs an overrated team 1 of which having one of the top defenses in the league 1 of the top players of which now going against his old squad and in a HUGE division game for both sides in a game where both teams may run a lot more than expected I expect this game to stay close and within the number and possibly even end with a chance for a Jets outright. 

BIG LEAN TO JETS HERE PLUS THE POINTS AND WILL TAKE ML SMALL AS WELL. 

Already locked in a small amount on the Jets +10 (bought to 10) & a small amount on Jets +350 so for all who may not want to wait until I post exact amounts on Sunday I want to let you know I will 100% be making at least a medium play on the Jets here and possibly big, but at least medium.

The Pats obviously are a huge public team so you would think there doesn't necessarily need to be as much urgency to lock in the number now though as percents will probably be in the Pats favor and if the line moves down at all for the Jets that would just signal to me more so that they are a good play - ACTUALLY, now after looking at the percents I currently see 66% on Jets ML and 72% on Jets with the spread which scares me a bit. I do still like the matchups for the Jets in this one with the high point spread, but maybe the spread doesn't stay as high so I may lock more in at 10 now to make sure I get that key number as DD.

OFFICIAL PLAY: JETS - Medium for now & small play on ML with this possibly being a BIG play though the percents on Jets right now does worry me a bit as that is something I consider in my capping in terms of considering upgrades to plays