Bears to win superbowl at 5/1 then hedge by taking SB opponent ML?

Question

So I want to bet $300 on the Bears to beat the Packers. Which I would have taken the moneyline, however looking at the current payout of 5/1, would it make sense to just take the futures bet and then hedge the $300 by betting on the opponent (Pitt or Jets) ML assuming they met in the superbowl? Either way I&#x27;m just out the original $300 plus juice. It seems to me I would be sitting on a risk free bet with a nice payout come Superbowl sunday. It certainly looks better than betting the Moneyline on the Bears twice. What am I not taking into account?

ValleyFan · Answer

So I want to bet $300 on the Bears to beat the Packers. Which I would have taken the moneyline, however looking at the current payout of 5/1, would it make sense to just take the futures bet and then hedge the $300 by betting on the opponent (Pitt or Jets) ML assuming they met in the superbowl? Either way I&#x27;m just out the original $300 plus juice. It seems to me I would be sitting on a risk free bet with a nice payout come Superbowl sunday. It certainly looks better than betting the Moneyline on the Bears twice. What am I not taking into account?

KktdocT · Answer

You&#x27;re right on.

esplanade · Answer

It depends who they play, but if you take the &#x2B;160 and get the same price against Pitt, your $1 turns into $6.76, which is &#x2B;576 as opposed to &#x2B;500

depeche2 · Answer

No. This is only going to maybe work if you get a great futures line. +500 is awful. Really really awful.

Essentially you are taking the Bears in the SB right now at +115. If they end up being more then you are bad shape. If they are lower or faves then you have some equity. Do you think the Bears would be just 1.5 point dogs in the SB. Right or wrong, most likely the Bears are going to be dogs either way. Probably 2.5 to the Jets ot 3 to Pitt. You'll get anywhere from +130 to +150 on the ML.

+500 now is bad, really bad. You can get +640 on Matchbook if that gives you any clue. +640 implied Bears +165 in the SB. I think that just might indeed be a bit steep.

Ice4Blood · Answer

i don&#x27;t get it!  when will people learn not to bet futures once the playoffs start... just bet Chicago on the ML this week, if you think they will play in the Super Bowl, and once they get there, decide how much you want to put on them or against them... but you have absolutely zero value doing this...if you decide to make this bet, compare what kind of value you get with what you would have had if you just took my advice... it will be a learning experience for you...then again, it&#x27;s a moot point since the Packers are going to win...

Bears to win superbowl at 5/1 then hedge by taking SB opponent ML?

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