5390 on Titans -3.5 -110 would win you 4.9k net 3.3k if Titans + Bucs cover because you've already bet 1600. You'd win 3.2k if Bengals + Bucs cover. And in the event that the Titans win by 4 you've got an excellent opportunity to cash both. However, you might want to toss some money on the Rams moneyline after the Bengals game if you are really trying to play it safe. In that event you've got 3.2k profit hinging on a Bucs cover. Rams +2.5 is priced at +100 from what I see at bet365 so 1600 on them would guarantee you 1600 no matter what happens, so long as you bet 5390 on the Titans -3.5. And if Titans win by exactly 4 then you can adjust accordingly
Well the reason you can't figure out how to hedge is these aren't actually obvious hedge situations. You can guarantee a small profit and give yourself a miniscule chance at a middle, or you can give yourself a much larger chance at a middle on the first bet but with the proviso that if the middle doesnt hit you are taking a small loss of on the parlay, that all.
You can't hedge the 2nd one at all as there are 2 bets remaining. You can't hedge until the bet is still live with the last one remaining. You understand that, yeah?
The first one all you can do is basically bet against your pick, which isn't really a sharp hedge as you paid extra juice on both bets. You could bet Titans -3.5 and try to catch the middle if it lands on 4. Or bet Titans moneyline and then any Titans win from 1-4 you hit both. But that's also a short priced bet. If you really dont want any more of the Bengals side of the bet you just have to buy out of it playing the -3.5 for say 1230 which would cover the stake on the parlay losing. If the parlay wins you still have 235 profit (which you will not feel good about having backed off your original bet). The dream here of course would be a 4 pt Titans win and you hit both, but that's a long shot.
Or you could do like 1500 on the Titans moneyline. Would win you 800 so the parlay losing would only cost you 320. You're just mitigating some of that 1120 basically, but also get a much better chance at a middle with Titans win by anything from 1-4 hitting both your bets. But if they win they're likely to win by more than that. And the Bengals could also win the game meaning you hit the parlay but lose the 1500 titans ML so you lose 35 bucks or whatever (and really feel dumb for not sticking with your bet.)
I would just let it ride if you liked it enough to put it on (even though I personally like the Titans) You already bought a point so the extra juice is already there to hedge you need to risk more to offset that.
I can tell by your buying points then looking to hedge you just overthink and bet scared and it's not how you will ever be profitable long term. In playoff and bowl games especially, the team that wins usually covers. That's what I love about them. If you really lost your balls about the bet than just do as above, live to fight another day, but you're not betting to really win if you do that. If I liked the Bengals I'd be trying to stick down a moneyline bet now on top of my parlay to make a nice score not queenin out.
If you're worried about losing that 1120 bet less money next time. Hedging is fine but what if you do that and the Bengals win the game SU?
You really need to be playing the other side of the last team of a multi teamer or a 2 teamer where you have a big moneyline dog or big moneyline favorite as the 2nd leg. I never hedge a 2 teamer unless it's in live betting in certain situations.
@SharpeBettor
It took me a while to figure out how that would work, and I still dont like it.
5390 on the titans? Ok if the guy has that laying around he wouldnt be losing his nerve over this, im guessing. Say you do that and the Bengals cover or win the game. Now youre actually down 2800 and need the Bucs to win to get that back and if it does, you actually are up like 3.2 right? But then if they lose youre actually down another 500 so you have to bet 1600 on the rams. But you lost that 5390 so the 1600 has to come come out of that 2584 from the first 2 teamer.
It's a lot of money to tie up just to basically still be hoping for the Bengals and Bucs to win which is already the bets down, but I suppose it works especially if you think the Titans will win but if the Bengals cover you're sitting there at the end of the first game just after throwing 5.4k down the drain when you could be sitting there with a profit and a chance at hitting that 4 teamer. It just makes a mess then at the end having to bet the Rams and all that which you do have to do because if you put 5.4k on titans and the bengals win and the bucs lose you are screwed hard.
Letting it ride or betting something around the same amount you stand to lose on the bets on titans -3.5 makes the most sense IMO
you don't have as much locked in as you think. you can take 3.5k on titans -3.5, try to middle it.
scenario 1
you lose the titans hedge -3.5k, +2.6k on the first parlay, and have 50% equity of 6k which is 2.7k after vig. Net +1.8k locked in
scenario 2
you win the titans hedge +3.2k, lose both parlays -1600. Net +1.6k locked in.
Scenario 3
titans win by 4, you win 3.2k, win parlay 1 +2.6k, have 50% equity of 6k minus vig so +2.7k. Can hedge bucs at that point and lock in about 8.5k total. Or you could as teddy kgb says, let eeet riiiideee
I think you will lose both of your last two picks, but it's likely you lose at least 1 IMO.
You should probably hedge your stake in both bets. If Cincy loses you break even.
If Cincy covers, you're already up, then you can do a real hedge on the last game. If Tampa covers you'd be up $5400 even with the hedge on Cincy.
If you took out the last 2 games and just took your win, you would have been up like 2100. You probably shoulda taken it and figured out your bets later on, but too late for that. I'd hedge out of Cincy for your whole stake, or if you like Cincy then let it ride and guarantee yourself up to $3000-3500 on the Tampa game.
People have hedging questions all the time, but they don't get that you can't hedge when you have more than one game left. Unless you want to just get your stake back, which you can at this point.
@herlotmami
This is what I would do. Stalk like a Bengal Tiger. Watch the Cincinnati game and if they score first you now have a much broader range to hedge. If not you may still get that chance during the game.
To hedge out of the second parlay requires 2 bets. Not something that I would recommend.
If you win the Bengals and may have a chance at a much stronger in game middle you will have ammo to hedge your final play on the bigger parlay.
Good luck.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
