Before I get into the game let’s give a true explanation of what is and isn’t the mythical creature that is reverse line movement. It’s boner inducing but so many times just not true.
RLM is when the line moves in the opposite direction as where the money is going. Simply put. The caveat is that only a few books can actually experience rlm. MGM, Caesar’s, superbook, etc.
So what isn’t RLM? Say you go and see draft kings or fanduel are heavy on the over on the Toledo game last night. You see the line go from 47 to 45 but the splits are heavy skewed to the over…..that isn’t reverse line movement. That my friend is risk liability. Those books are following ceasars and trusting that the line was moved for a reason. In reality, betmgm and most of brick and mortar was skewed to the under with respected money pushing the o/u from 47 to 44.
so why was fanduel and draftkings open to exposed risk? Easy, they knew they were on the same side theoretically as people who win more often than not.
ok. So what is RLM? Let’s use last weeks packers bears game. Super book releases at 6.5 and immediately gets hit by respected money on bears +6.5. That risk manager thinks “oh crap, I don’t want a line of consistent winners lined out my book betting, let’s go 5.5 and hope that keeps them away”. Meanwhile the people that loved the packers at 6.5 really love 5.5. Soon recreational bets tickets are 8-1 to sharp tickets, and handle is 5-1.
the book is okay with imbalance because they know how often the bears bettors win and have never seen (or better have seen) the people playing the packers. The book will take a position that the bears are the right side, and also remember if they go to 6.5 then a stream of “good money” will walk in the door.
Now dk, fan duel isn’t trapping you. They are just following what is going on at the main properties. The main properties aren’t trapping you either. They are just trying to keep the players tgey have to give Christmas cards to from taking advantage of a weak line.
thats rlm. Don’t ever look at a ticket/handle outside of a few books and think oh wow, money is on dog and the favorite is going up must be reverse line movement. It could be, or it could be that Caesar’s got smacked on the favorite by pros and your book is just following Caesar’s position.
hope this helps. I hope it was clear and understandable because it has a point on tonight’s game. Maybe next time I’ll explain steam lines (when public and pro money join forces).
hugs and kisses
weeds
Caught my eye Interesting analogy and well detailed indeed 
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