Betting Question, Please Advise!

Question

I have a $4 10 team parlay open. It pays out $3200. It is 8 for 8 so far. The two remaining games are team Irvin in the pro bowl -.5 and the NFC in the super bowl -2.5.  What would you guys do here to maximize profit? Thanks.

Castellani14 · Answer

I have a $4 10 team parlay open. It pays out $3200. It is 8 for 8 so far. The two remaining games are team Irvin in the pro bowl -.5 and the NFC in the super bowl -2.5.  What would you guys do here to maximize profit? Thanks.

Europa · Answer

In order to maximize your profit, you have to stay put. But you can hedge a bit by playing Rice &#x2B;.5 and AFC &#x2B;2.5 in SB, it all depends. I would hedge a little if i were in your situation. Good luck!

shrewdie · Answer

Why didn&#x27;t u just have an eight team parlay ?

Humchucker · Answer

Yeah I agree...easy to say now of course, but any 10 team parlay that involves a pro bowl game, and the Superbowl conference winner when you don&#x27;t even know who will be representing each conference seems ill-advised.  This has been pointed out numerous times on many threads, but you should never place a parlay with the INTENTION of hedging your last bet.  You lose juice since you are essentially betting both sides of the last game/s in your parlay by hedging.  I will assume the OP didn&#x27;t intend to hedge this bet (just a 5 dollar fun bet right?), so in that case, I think hedging is appropriate to get some guaranteed money.  Guaranteed money doesn&#x27;t come free, so you will lose some potential money by hedging, so it won&#x27;t be maximizing profit, but I think you are okay with that. Here&#x27;s what I would do for a guaranteed ~720 dollars and no stress.Bet 800 on team Rice &#x2B;0.5 (if you lose your parlay you are still up 715  dollars). 720 winnings minus 5 dollar initial parlay betIf team Irvin wins, you are now &#x27;down&#x27; 800 but have a hedgeable last game.  Since it would be worth 2400 (3200 payout minus the 800 you lost on the first hedge) you place a bet on AFC&#x2B;2.5 for 1680. If your hedge wins (parlay loses), you win 1512 but have to account for initial hedge of 800 so your total profit is 707 (712 profit minus 5 dollar ticket). If your parlay wins, you have &#x27;lost&#x27; both hedge bets totaling 2480 but win a 3200 payout for a 720 dollar profit. In summary:If your parlay loses in game 9, you are up 715If your parlay loses in game 10, you are up 707 (712 winnings minus 5 dollar parlay ticket.  I am including the lost initial hedge here)If parlay wins, you lose two hedge bets totaling 2480 but win your 3200 parlay for a total of 720. Just for sake of showing how including those last 2 games in the parlay hurt you...if you had just bet an 8 teamer, it would have been worth ~880, and by having to hedge twice to guarantee yourself the most possible money, it costs you 160 or almost 20%.  In deciding if you should hedge, ask yourself this: would I bet 720 dollars on a side in the pro bowl?  Because that  is essentially what you are doing.  A parlay is just rolling bets over into the next selection.  By picking a pro bowl side, you are essentially saying when you make the parlay that you are comfortable betting ~800 on that pick since in order for that game to matter you would have to win the first 8 bets.  Good luck with whatever you decide to do. I&#x27;d take the ~700 guaranteed if I were in your situation but that&#x27;s just me.

Castellani14 · Answer

Thanks for the answers. Much appreciated.

In Delaware you can bet parlays at the local bars. I always put in one ten teamer a week. In order to reach ten teams this week I had to throw in the pro bowl and super bowl.

Castellani14 · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Thank you for taking the time to write that. Really appreciate it. I think It will be wise to take the 700 and run. &#xD;&#xA;Ideally the super bowl line will be such that I can hedge and potentially win the hedge and the parlay. But that is wishful thinking. If Arizona is favored by  4over KC or Den I could potentially win both. Could have Arizona -2.5 and KC plus 4.

Humchucker · Answer

Ah that makes sense then.  Oh well, congrats on the 8 for 10 so far, nice work!  And yes ideally you will get an opportunity to hedge where you can potentially middle in the Superbowl.  You never know, if it ends up as Arizona-NE and NE in getting there loses a few key players (Gronk, Edelman, etc.) to re-injury, you may be looking at a line of ARI-6.5 and have an opportunity to hit both bets if ARI wins by 3,4,5, or 6.  Best of luck to you!

BarneysDad · Answer

Your in a great spot with a 4 dollar investment, you are gonna make some money no doubt, the question is are you greedy or do you want come out a dime or dime and a half ahead profit worst case scenario or let it ride and take your chances since it was a low investment. I will chime in come gametime on those games. GL whatever you decide

Castellani14 · Answer

Just put $500 on team Rice. Lets see how this plays out.

Castellani14 · Answer

Hell yeah!! 9 down, 1 to go. Sitting on Carolina -2.5.

EndTheFed · Answer

sounds to me like somebody is going to win $3190 -- unless you hedge your NFC SB wager, which would be wise but not necessarily "smart" imo... there is a difference, and you have 6 more days to mull it over.

What a great problem to have... you are the envy of this board, have no illusion.

Castellani14 · Answer

Just put $1500 on Denver plus 6. &#xD;&#xA;Lets hope Carolina wins by 3, 4, 5, or 6.

WizardOfOdd · Answer

That is the dumbest answer.  How the hell is anyone suppose to know they gonna hit the first 8 out of 10 plays??  Could have easily lost the 1st leg of the parlay and he wouldnt be in this situation.Number wise, yes, it makes all the sense that ppl here preach with vanzack and his crew about parlays.Its a bs fun type wager. Next time ask the lottery officials if you can pick one number at a time.

WizardOfOdd · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Castellani14]  Just put $1500 on Denver plus 6. &#xD;&#xA;Lets hope Carolina wins by 3, 4, 5, or 6.   [/Quote]GL and enjoy the profits!  Carolina by 4

Betting Question, Please Advise!

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