The bounceback strategy, in which you play on teams after they've been trounced on the road, typically involves between 25 and 30 games a year. This season, there have been 11, and these teams are 4-7 ATS. My record playing them this season is 4-4, which is very unusual in that when I skip a game it tends to have been a missed winner. One of those was refusing to play on the Jets -4 at home (made sense), and two were large dogs away (worked out).
So anyway, this week there are three such games, and all three are home dogs, which are great bets in general in the last three weeks of the season (58%). And bonus fact: All three teams are seriously awful. But that's what this strategy gives you.
This week:
NY Giants +7.5(+9) v Indianapolis
New Orleans +1 v Las Vegas
Cleveland +6 v Miami
[I have only taken Cleveland so far; my book is only offering +9 -130 for the Giants, so I'm waiting for alternate lines tomorrow morning. I'm also waiting out the Saints line, I'm thinking it might end up +2.]
Two of these road favorites (Miami and Indy) have to win out to keep their very faint postseason hopes alive, which is also good. Teams in a must-win in the final two weeks of the season are just 71-102-5 ATS against teams that are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. (Another to consider this week is Carolina +8 vs TB.)
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