You'd think I'd learn my lesson by now, but I parlayed Atlanta -3.5 (didn't cover) and swerved on Denver +13 (easily covered). Never believe what you think.
Last Week: Parlay lost, regained that $ by taking the Packers singly afterwards (unposted). Wish I'd taken the myriad Packers bets I considered (they'd all have won), but at that point was just looking to cover the loss.
This week: I'm not taking Indianapolis -2.5 home to Houston. They don't deserve to be favored, and since I re-crunched the numbers it's no longer a play in my take on this system.
I have already taken NY Jets PK (-105) at Miami, and Chicago +4 home to Minneapolis. Jets are the purest play; I'm only taking the Bears because they're a home dog.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Season: 13-9 (I'm 12-8)
You'd think I'd learn my lesson by now, but I parlayed Atlanta -3.5 (didn't cover) and swerved on Denver +13 (easily covered). Never believe what you think.
Last Week: Parlay lost, regained that $ by taking the Packers singly afterwards (unposted). Wish I'd taken the myriad Packers bets I considered (they'd all have won), but at that point was just looking to cover the loss.
This week: I'm not taking Indianapolis -2.5 home to Houston. They don't deserve to be favored, and since I re-crunched the numbers it's no longer a play in my take on this system.
I have already taken NY Jets PK (-105) at Miami, and Chicago +4 home to Minneapolis. Jets are the purest play; I'm only taking the Bears because they're a home dog.
Ha, Chicago now +7.5, so much for betting early/CLV. I think Fields is playing, so maybe this is people thinking the Bears will tank in an attempt to get the #1 pick. Which would make no sense, since 1st and 2nd are equivalent, and the one thing we know they don't need in the draft is a QB.
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Ha, Chicago now +7.5, so much for betting early/CLV. I think Fields is playing, so maybe this is people thinking the Bears will tank in an attempt to get the #1 pick. Which would make no sense, since 1st and 2nd are equivalent, and the one thing we know they don't need in the draft is a QB.
Bears/Vikings is my focus game this week. Already have a couple teaser with 1-side being Under 52.5 & 51.5. I don't like the Bears spot at all. Peterman is the QB and he's possibly the worst backup QB in football. 3TDs vs. 13INT in his career, and hasn't started since 2018. He's horrible. Bears have nothing to play for against and while the Vikings don't either, they got embarrassed last Sunday in Green Bay and will look to get back on track this week IMO. Winning against the Bears is will not jumpstart 'momentum', but losing against them heading into the Divisional round is not something they will want to do. I expect the Vikings starters to play in the 1st half and possible a little of the 2nd half and then rest. If so, Vikings will try to put up points and they will probably be successful. Not liking the odds of Peterman digging the Bears out of a 1st half hole in week 18 with a depleted OL and really nothing to play for.
And the Bears have a real shot @ the #1 overall pick should they lose. No, they don't need a QB, but the team would be in prime spot to trade down for a team wanting Stroud or Young and net a bid haul of picks + 1st round pick swap. The players won't 'tank', but I don't think the coached will go out of their way to call a perfect game plan. A win could drop the Bears from #2 currently to #4 with a win and competitor losses. There is no incentive to win here.
Mulling a 1st half Vikings play @ -190 as I think the Viking will try and put this away early, but haven't pull the trigger yet. My 2c
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@garbagetime
Bears/Vikings is my focus game this week. Already have a couple teaser with 1-side being Under 52.5 & 51.5. I don't like the Bears spot at all. Peterman is the QB and he's possibly the worst backup QB in football. 3TDs vs. 13INT in his career, and hasn't started since 2018. He's horrible. Bears have nothing to play for against and while the Vikings don't either, they got embarrassed last Sunday in Green Bay and will look to get back on track this week IMO. Winning against the Bears is will not jumpstart 'momentum', but losing against them heading into the Divisional round is not something they will want to do. I expect the Vikings starters to play in the 1st half and possible a little of the 2nd half and then rest. If so, Vikings will try to put up points and they will probably be successful. Not liking the odds of Peterman digging the Bears out of a 1st half hole in week 18 with a depleted OL and really nothing to play for.
And the Bears have a real shot @ the #1 overall pick should they lose. No, they don't need a QB, but the team would be in prime spot to trade down for a team wanting Stroud or Young and net a bid haul of picks + 1st round pick swap. The players won't 'tank', but I don't think the coached will go out of their way to call a perfect game plan. A win could drop the Bears from #2 currently to #4 with a win and competitor losses. There is no incentive to win here.
Mulling a 1st half Vikings play @ -190 as I think the Viking will try and put this away early, but haven't pull the trigger yet. My 2c
Yup. I'm still on Chicago, but I've cashed out the +4 and taken +7.5 for a lesser amount...if they don't cover I'll have lost the same 1 unit, while if they do cover I'll win 0.68 of a unit instead of 0.91 of a unit.
Had Minnesota not scored their late TDs they could have met my criteria, thus cancelling out the Chicago bet. I do think the possibility that Minnesota rests starters in the second half, etc., shows the danger of taking a big favorite in the last week of the season. And who knows, maybe Peterman will pull a Baugh this week. He is after all going to face one of the worst defenses in the NFL, even in the first half.
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Yup. I'm still on Chicago, but I've cashed out the +4 and taken +7.5 for a lesser amount...if they don't cover I'll have lost the same 1 unit, while if they do cover I'll win 0.68 of a unit instead of 0.91 of a unit.
Had Minnesota not scored their late TDs they could have met my criteria, thus cancelling out the Chicago bet. I do think the possibility that Minnesota rests starters in the second half, etc., shows the danger of taking a big favorite in the last week of the season. And who knows, maybe Peterman will pull a Baugh this week. He is after all going to face one of the worst defenses in the NFL, even in the first half.
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