Media Bias & Hype Machine Influence Bettors
The Super Bowl is a magnet for sensationalism. This over the top reporting leading up to the game, whether it's the incredible talents of the young flashy Colin Kaepernick, the Ray Lewis retirement, or the Harbaugh brothers, overshadow what is most important for the gambler. To the untrained eye, the media blitz seems to have it all figured out. Whoever gets more positive press will be the darlings of the league and win the game, right?
The 49er's and their return to dominance is polarizing the public in to one corner - remember the good ole' days? The Ravens are less "eye-catching". Some even say Joe Flacco is boring. The public digests these visuals and make emotional decisions.
It is these uneducated bettors that provide us with some of the best information. The squares do get it right sometimes - word of caution. Handicap the game all you want (I still do). Provide statistical support for your choice. Analyze weather patterns. Check your horoscope. Pick your poison. The value play is ultimately determined by how the bad money moved the line in to a favorable proposition for a bet the other way.
I initially liked the opening line. I thought it was fair. I was undecided which team had the edge but was leaning San Francisco slightly. I have since changed my mind on that.
Baltimore is a veteran team and they are playing much better (or should I say more consistent) than SF in these playoffs. Both teams are motivated, but I like the Ravens "us against the world" attitude. Kaepernick should not be able to run all over the place against this defense and we might see inexperience from him on the biggest stage. Flacco will outperform and be the MVP of the game.
Prediction: Close Game
Baltimore 31, San Francisco 27
BETS:
Baltimore ML +165
Baltimore +4
Over 48
That's my 2-cents. Good luck everyone and enjoy the game. It should be a good one. May the best team win!
GL
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