Posted:
#1
Under 21 1st half and under 42.5 full game. The Broncos are 3-10-1 to the O/U thus far.
Let's review the Broncos 7 road games thus far.
1. @Ravens. 27-14 final. A total of 41. Under the posted total of 46. The 1st TD of the first possession of the game occurred as a direct result from a blocked punt, yet the total still went under. Baltimore is #14 ranked DVOA offense(much improved since Lamar took over).
2. @ Jets. 34-16 final. Over posted total of 43. Two 2nd quarter TD's, in the span of 4 minutes, by the Jets---of over 75 yards caused this total to go over(Isaiah Crowell 77 yd TD run and Robby Anderson 76 yard catch). An anomaly, Jets are #30 ranked DVOA offense.
3. @Cardinals. 45-10. Over 42.5. Two pick sixes by Broncos D caused this to go over, including one on the first possession. The Cardinals haven't given up more than 31 points at home to any other team this year. An anomaly. AZ is #32 ranked DVOA offense.
4. @Chiefs 30-23. Total was 53 or 53.5. Chiefs possess one of the greatest DVOA offenses in NFL history(#1 this year)....yet this game still pushed or went under(depending on the line you got). Divisional rivalry.
5. @LAC 23-22. Under 46.5. Divisional rivalry with #2 DVOA offense. Hard fought under.
6.@Bengals. 24-10. Under 45. Middling offense with Driskel(#18 DVOA).
7. @Niners. 20-14. Under 45.5. Niners offense with Mullens is vey poor(#27 DVOA).
So...tonight the #13 DVOA ranked Broncos offense, and #4 DVOA ranked D faces the #20 ranked DVOA offense in the Raiders and, problematic for the under, a #30 ranked DVOA defense.
What transpires?
I base these under wagers on the strong Broncos D and last Raiders home game in Oakland. Raiders D will play inspired, imo. I predict a standard, slugfest divisional war with only 1 turnover of consequence.
GL gentlemen.
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